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What Success % do you use?
Old 10-26-2018, 03:23 PM   #1
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What Success % do you use?

If you have used retirement calculators, what success percentage are you comfortable using / targeting?

Do you prefer historical (firecalc, ********) or Monte Carlo?

(Being ridiculously conservative, I always go for 100% success.)
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:32 PM   #2
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100%. If we end up leaving more behind, that's okay.

Done both - prefer historical.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:33 PM   #3
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I always "fudge" the numbers until I can show a multi-million dollar balance when I die. I then share them with my "young wife" just before bedtime and hope she shows her appreciation!
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:34 PM   #4
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Psychologically I am feeling okay with 95+% although I prefer seeing 98+. I know the difference in 95 and 98 is a nit but I still feel more comfortable knowing only 2 cycles failed in Firecalc.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:40 PM   #5
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My main calculator was the Fidelity retirement planner. I used below market averages (basically no income) and 100 percent success. Plus, I overstated my expenses. So overall, more than 100 percent.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:42 PM   #6
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I shoot for 100%, but wonder if the safety provided by achieving this is outweighed by the risk of dying before the money's gone.

Here's the Rich, Dead or Broke calculator, as food for thought.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Is it worth working for 100%, when the probability that you'll end up dead before broke is so much greater?
Does your retirement spending include a safety factor? For example, If you're planning to spend $100K annually, but base expenses are only $50K, you could always cut spending to ensure you don't run out of $. In essence, run the calculator for both spending rates.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:46 PM   #7
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100% makes me feel good. My retirement score at Fido is 150+%.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:47 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HNL Bill View Post
I shoot for 100%, but wonder if the safety provided by achieving this is outweighed by the risk of dying before the money's gone.

Here's the Rich, Dead or Broke calculator, as food for thought.
https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

Is it worth working for 100%, when the probability that you'll end up dead before broke is so much greater?
Bingo!!! If in doubt go over to Bogleheads where I'm sure 200% isn't good enough/
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:48 PM   #9
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I use % remaining portfolio which has a 100% success rate by definition as it never runs out of money. So I looked at remaining portfolio statistics and worst case historical drawdown (income drop) to select what I thought was the max withdrawal rate I would be OK with.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:52 PM   #10
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100% but only to age 80, not 95 or 100 like most people here.
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Old 10-26-2018, 03:55 PM   #11
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Will be going to % remaining of portfolio next year.
Currently, shoot for 100% success using historical and Monte Carlo calculators.
Even though retired, I still run the various calculators monthly (15 min of time).
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Old 10-26-2018, 04:19 PM   #12
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100%, but my preferred mode is using FIRECalc to find the spending level at which I'll never (historically) run out of money. When I see that that "safe" number is 1˝ - 2X what my annual spending projections are, then I feel pretty confident. So I'd guess that translates roughly into 150 - 200% success?
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Old 10-26-2018, 04:34 PM   #13
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The Success % on traditional Firecalc SAFEMAX or SWR models assume an initial % of portfolio at retirement and then annual inflation adjustments thereafter.

I can see why people use it as the starting point for “do I have enough to retire?”.

Few people actually follow that withdrawal method.
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Old 10-26-2018, 04:48 PM   #14
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I got a 80% success in the first iteration and figured that was good enough as travel was my largest estimated expense. 80% was good enough to tell my manager Id be happy to take a package.
I use Fidelitys calculator now and it comes up good at their worst case scenario which I think is 90% of markets.
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Old 10-26-2018, 04:50 PM   #15
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LOL: I adjust spending to the highest amount that still yields 99% success and then grin because current spend is so much lower
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:03 PM   #16
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Depends on what calculator you use and where you are in retirement.

When I was planning we used 100yo and slightly overestimated expenses, slightly underestimated my SS and 95% success in Fidelity's RIP. IMHO probably the most conservative calculator, especially if you detail your expenses.

I used other calcs and firecalc seemed closest to Fidelity. A little better results, and I used it as a valued second opinion. I spent a lot of time in RIP and used it as my base. That was ~6 years ago, before retiring, and I feel okay financially ptoday. I'm thankful I've had the last 5.5 years to experience my life.

I'm sure I saw my Fidelity score this year, Vanguard says I'm ok too. I don't care about those numbers anymore.
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:04 PM   #17
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80% of a budget that reflects a very comfortable lifestyle. If that percentage starts trending towards 50%; I'll just slash the discretionary part of the budget until I get old or the success rate recovers.
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:35 PM   #18
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100%
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:38 PM   #19
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I use FIREcalc with a 40 year planning horizon, historical model, all defaults except for my spending, portfolio value, expense ratio, and AA. I then use the investigate tab to search for 95% success rate and compare that to my actual spending.

Haven't run it in a week or two, though! :-)
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Old 10-26-2018, 06:08 PM   #20
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I use 100% safe on a retirement that goes till I am 100 years old, with the plan of ratcheting my spending up at the indefinite SWR (3% is what I'm using for planning purposes) whenever my portfolio increases to minimize unspent gains.
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