Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: SWR
less than 3% 15 23.44%
between 3 % and 4% 31 48.44%
between 4% and 5% 12 18.75%
between 5% and 6% 4 6.25%
over 6% 2 3.13%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
What was your SWR?
Old 04-10-2009, 06:16 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
David1961's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,076
What was your SWR?

For those who have ERd, if you calculated your safe withdrawal rate beforehand, what was it when you retired?
__________________

__________________
David1961 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-10-2009, 06:44 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
6% We thought strange thoughts in 1993 - had a Vanguard workbook and a no.2 pencil.

Times have changed. 2008(15th yr of ER) I took out a tad less than my SEC yield of portfolio - under 4% but close.

1993 - 2008 all over the map but I use 4% as a rough guide post AND the Norwegian widow keeps the key to the back door - and try to keep the SEC yield at 3% or above. In the past even bought some amounts of High Yield Corp and REIT Index to bump up yield - in Taxable yet - most say Dat's a no no but I wanted to boost income stream a tad. Along with such barnburners as Con Ed, AT&T, Chevron, National Fuel Gas, etc.

And the the dang banks - which burned me in 2008/early this year - down 24% in dividends/interest as $ 2008 vs 2007 including my MM cash.

heh heh heh - As a planning guide 4% seems to be 'the number' as a number of studies seem to support this. However if the current unpleasantness continues 'the number' could begin to creep up toward my 1993 6% if valuations stay down for a long period. As an old school cat - I watch SEC yield as well.
__________________

__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2009, 06:44 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rambler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,250
I have not ERd yet, but with what I have set aside right now, and after buying our toy (we want an RV for when we FIRE), and given the budget we have created (realistic, generous - but not overly), we would be at about a 3.7% WR. I'm 47, so I am not comfortable with that. I am targeting a starting SWR of between 3.25% and 3.34%. FIREcalc tells me I have a 100% chance of success at 3.34%. Note that I do not have a pension or medical from megacorp when I punch out.

Since I am testing the budget a bit, and would like the budget to have a 10-15% cushion beyond what it has now, plus the 3.25-3.34% WR, (and the shiny new golden handcuffs megacorp is trying to get me to wear), I have to hang in there for a while longer...maybe 3 years, maybe 4.

For those of you who have seen my early posts, you may remember that I expected to be punching sometime this year. Well, my replacement is not ready yet, but is coming along nicely...and the market happened. So, while I could punch out now with a less than 4% starting WR, I am loathe to do so, considering that we may see a bout of high inflation. All of this said, I do not enjoy my job as much as I used to, I just got a new boss (who I will not even meet for a few months), and I do not trust our board of directors. So, who knows what will happen.

I'm counting myself lucky that I have a job, because I also havve 2 kids in college, and there is still uncertainty about the market and the economy.

R
__________________
Find Joy in the Journey...
Rambler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2009, 07:26 PM   #4
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,146
I didn't vote but I am interested in the results. I should RE in January and had planned a 2% initial SWR because I will have a non-COLA pension and so the inflation increases each year have to cover pension loss of buying power as well as inflation on the initial withdrawal sum.

However, it now looks like I'll need 3% in the first year.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2009, 08:07 PM   #5
Moderator Emeritus
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 4,929
Heh. My calculated rate was 3.6%, and my actual rate was a good bit lower. As of last month, though, my actual rate was up to 3.6%. :-(
__________________
M Paquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2009, 08:13 PM   #6
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,949
I plan to ER in November (so I didn't vote). I am not yet certain of exactly what my SWR will be, except that it will not be more then 4%. I am still thinking about it. My best guess right now would be an SWR of 3%.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2009, 12:10 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,753
When I ER'd, my 'SWR' was about 2.6%. Since then I've realized that no one has a SWR, they have a WR. My WR is above 3% now and I hope it is S.
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
kumquat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2009, 10:56 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,020
I am not retired. Before the crash I was making plans for 2012-2013 based on an SWR of 2%. I do not have a pension and I may want to upgrade my lifestyle, so I would not feel comfortable with being on the edge. When all the information is in for the end of the fiscal year, I will do the math again. But who can tell, when we may be facing hyperinflation, deflation, L shaped recessions, and Armageddon?
__________________
Meadbh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2009, 11:11 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Gotadimple's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,764
When I was planning for this year, I expected a WR of 5% -- mostly because it will be several years before I can claim social security. However, with refinancing the mortgage it looks like 4% for this year.

I expect my WR to be more than 4% until I claim social security, but as Uncle Mick says, keeping the SEC yield above 3% is helpful.

-- Rita
__________________
Only got A dimple, would have preferred 2!
Gotadimple is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2009, 01:24 PM   #10
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,949
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post
But who can tell, when we may be facing hyperinflation, deflation, L shaped recessions, and Armageddon?
Retiring is pretty scary these days! Reminds me of my first high dive back in 1957. The pool looked like it was a million miles below me. I was absolutely terrified but took a leap of faith (literally) and made the dive anyway.

I hear the water's fine, though.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2009, 04:54 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rambler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,250
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Retiring is pretty scary these days! Reminds me of my first high dive back in 1957. The pool looked like it was a million miles below me. I was absolutely terrified but took a leap of faith (literally) and made the dive anyway.

I hear the water's fine, though.
I'm a wuss and could never dive off the high-dive...will a cannon-ball do as well?

R
__________________
Find Joy in the Journey...
Rambler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 10:08 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Moemg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 10,038
Mine is between 3 % and 3.5% . I actually write down my 4% amount on Jan.1st but I've yet to use the full amount and believe me I try .
__________________
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 10:53 AM   #13
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
I didn't even know what a SWR was when I FIRE'd. Not including college expenses it was easily in the 5-6% range.

Now, in my 10th year, it is 4%. We are fortunate because our high spending early on, combined with repeated ugly capital markets, could have brought us to financial ruin. As is, we live well and I feel 4% is risky but sustainable.

If I was working today thinking about doing this, I would target 3%.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 01:41 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,449
I did not vote, as I still have some part-time income and have not drawn on my portfolio for more than a few months last year. But all this talk about SWR has taught me to be really really careful if and when my work dries up.

Our expenses over the last 5 years have been varying 250%. The most recent years have been high due to kids in college and us goofing off on European trips 2 or 3 times a year, on top of domestic trips. Life was good during the market bull run.

At the current portfolio value, our cheapskate year expense would mean 3% withdrawal, while our highest yearly expense would mean 7.5%, and we would end up in a poor house fairly quick.r
__________________
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 02:55 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,449
I found my old post showing actual expenses. Whoa! It's a lot worse than I remembered. How much of it could I blame on the kids' college expenses? Until they become really independent, seems like my part-time work is not really optional or discretionary after all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
...
Anyway, here are our actual past expenses.
...
__________________
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 09:17 PM   #16
Full time employment: Posting here.
cardude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 599
Mine WR was 3.32% last month, but when I get my house loan reworked to a longer term and a lower rate it will drop to 3%. I just retired last month, so I hope I'm including all my expenses. I'm doing a self-escrow for taxes, insurance and vacation expenses so I hope I estimated those correctly.

I wanted to be under 3% since I am only 44 and have a wife and 2 boys (9 and 11), so I'm a little worried but still excited we actually doing it.
__________________
cardude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2009, 09:58 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustic23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 3,624
Mine was between 4 and 5%. However it should go down in the future, 3 years, when we start drawing SS.
__________________
If it is after 5:00 when I post I reserve the right to disavow anything I posted.
Rustic23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2009, 12:04 AM   #18
Moderator Emeritus
CuppaJoe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,866
I started at 4%. This will be the first full year of retirement and at the rate I'm going, it may come in at around 3.5%. At the moment I don't need to buy much of anything beyond the basics, I've been selling off some of my unused stuff (dial-up modem cleared $35.00!), got tax refunds that will cover about a month's expenses, have had time to find less expensive food, eat out less often, and found less expensive entertainment.
__________________
CuppaJoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2009, 12:32 AM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 2,406
I'm targeting 4.000%.

A few years ago I sort of thought "mechanically" -- that I would retire the day my SWR hit 4.000%. Lately I've more just wanted to reach FI and am interested in roughly when that is likely to occur so I can make informed decisions now.

As of today it looks like I will hit a 4% WR at age 46.55 around Christmas 2015, and my kids will be 21, 16, and 14 then. A few years ago I was pretty burned out in my job but at the moment I think that timeframe is pretty doable.

I just want to reach FI so I can RE if I want to. At this point I don't mind work too much; what I mind is *having* to work and having bills that I am not 100% sure I can cover.

2Cor521
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2009, 04:09 AM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
shotgunner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 454
Serious question, how should one calculate this? I just finished my first year of Semi-Retirement. When calculating SWR do I use the amount of my portfolio at the start of my first year-Semi FIRE or the amount at the end of the year? Or do I average the SWR by the amount of draw against principle for each month of the year?
__________________

__________________
Never surrender what you really want for what you want right now.
shotgunner is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
A different way to look at the 4% SWR Sam FIRE and Money 21 07-27-2007 07:05 AM
Can your SWR be above 4% if you have more than you need? JustCurious FIRE and Money 25 07-25-2007 05:49 PM
SS and SWR of 4% runnerr FIRE and Money 9 04-04-2007 01:05 PM
how about 14% SWR CyclingInvestor FIRE and Money 23 05-17-2006 03:58 PM
SWR? malakito FIRE and Money 25 03-18-2005 01:02 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:20 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.