Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 05:03 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 260
What were we thinking in February 2000?

Remember when the NASDAQ was over 5000 and the talk about DOW going to 36000.

Who remembers why so many people thought these were practical situations?

Do you see a bubble occuring again whether in the market, real estate or the US and world economies?
__________________

__________________
GTM is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 05:12 PM   #2
 
Posts: n/a
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

A lot of people thought the world was flat and
that you could cure injuries by bleeding the patient. I see "bubbles" in my beer. The other bubbles I don't really
care about.

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 05:45 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 909
Send a message via ICQ to Marshac Send a message via AIM to Marshac Send a message via Yahoo to Marshac
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

I wish I liked beer
__________________
Marshac is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 05:51 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

Quote:
Who remembers why so many people thought these were practical situations?

Do you see a bubble occuring again whether in the market, real estate or the US and world economies?
I remember very well. I was busily buying puts. But as usual, the market outlasted me, and when it finally broke I had very little remaining on the don't-pass line.

As to your question of how could people think that was a reasonable situation, just look around. People usually don't think, they feel. And what they feel is more or less what the people around them feel. So given a situation like the late 90s, where there were many plausible rationalizations for the run-away market, only a scrooge would demur.

I don't see a bubble in stocks today, in any major equity market. That bubble broke. But that doesn't mean that the bear has gone back into hibernation. In fact, I would be amazed if he has. The rule is usually that any bubble, once it breaks, goes back to or below trend. We are a long way above the long term trend still.

The first year of a presidential term is usually weaker than any other years in the cycle. This is particualrly true when valuations are high, as they are now. If the S&P is down in January 2005, look for a down year. And considering valuations, it could be a doozy. Looking down the road, if life proceeds according to established patterns, the next low risk opportunity to go long S&P type stocks should be in late fall of 2006.

If valuations then are normal or below normal, 2007 could be a barn burner.

Remember, you heard it first here.

Mikey
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 06:19 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 768
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

Quote:
Do you see a bubble occuring again...
Of course. Human nature doesn't change.
__________________
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 11-30-2004, 10:21 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Hyperborea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 1,008
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

Quote:
Do you see a bubble occuring again whether in the market, real estate or the US and world economies?
Yes, these seem to happen with regularity. Read some market history, even recent history. The "Tronics" bubble of the 60's or the "Nifty Fifty" of the 70's or the first computer boom of the 80's or ...
Try reading Devil Take the Hindmost. Or maybe "Adam Smith's" The Money Game for a first hand look at a previous bubble. (It's not that Adam Smith it was a pseudonym used by a financial insider of the 60's and 70's.)

What can you do about it? Keep a diversified portfolio and balance regularly. You'll slice off some of the boom money into your other asset classes. You won't get it all but you'll get some. Trying to "outsmart the herd" by guessing when it will end will more often than not be a losing proposition - sure some will "win" and those will be just about the only ones you hear from. Very few will regale you with the stories of how they lost a bundle.
__________________
Hyperborea is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 12-01-2004, 05:13 AM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Charlotte
Posts: 360
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

I remember very well. I was retiring on March 1, 2000, when I turned 55 and I says to myself: "this market is really getting expensive, now is the time to move big chunks from stock to bond in IRAs and load up on these I Bonds that I've heard about".

Not stupid moves I think, but must admit what primarily pushed me to movement was being born 3/1/1945!
__________________
WilliamG is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 12-01-2004, 06:28 AM   #8
 
Posts: n/a
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

Fishing and duck hunting were over and I was single and 5 years younger, so I know what I was thinking

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 12-01-2004, 10:54 AM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 844
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

In late feb to early march 2000 I was on a month-long vacation in the bahamas...my portfolio went up by about 75% in first three weeks without a single trade (I was trading a lot at the time).

I was thinking "this sure is nice, but it can't last"

By the time I went home all those paper gains were lost
__________________
farmerEd is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 12-01-2004, 11:23 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,385
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

Quote:
I remember very well. *I was retiring on March 1, 2000, when I turned 55 and I says to myself: "this market is really getting expensive, now is the time to move big chunks from stock to bond in IRAs and load up on these I Bonds that I've heard about".

Not stupid moves I think, but must admit what primarily pushed me to movement was being born 3/1/1945!
Congratulations on your good sense, and to your parents for their excellent timing of your conception and birth.

I have a son who was getting wildly rich on employee options. Then he got married, and this prompted him to view his paper wealth as potential houses, cars, etc. So he exercised and sold most of the vested options, and missed the crash.

He is divorced now, and he jokes that his wife cost him plenty going out, but made him even more coming in!

Life goes in interesting ways sometimes.

Mikey
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?
Old 12-01-2004, 11:34 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: What were we thinking in February 2000?

I was just starting to invest in 1999 and I was thinking two things:

- Damn! Missed out on the greatest bull market I am ever likely to see.

and

- All these people are nuts!

I was buying unloved non-tech stuff in 99 and 00. These were real companies that actually made cash money and paid (yawn) dividends. Still have 'em and they have been stellar performers.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Been thinking lately brewer12345 Life after FIRE 79 07-18-2005 01:38 PM
What are the Banks thinking? ESRBob Other topics 4 12-20-2004 06:38 AM
Thinking of RE Surfs_Up Hi, I am... 38 09-26-2004 12:48 PM
Thinking of of Pulling the ER Trigger...... Bill Gates FIRE and Money 10 09-02-2004 09:00 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:31 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.