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Old 08-08-2011, 05:32 PM   #101
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Can you at least give us a hint?
Why should I make it too easy for you?

Oh, OK. Over the long term, market movement will resemble a squiggly line on a graph.

There, I let you in on my proprietary algorithm. Please send 1% of your portfolio to the usual PO box.
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Old 08-08-2011, 05:36 PM   #102
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You're not allowed to make up the rebalancing rules as you go along. Doing so makes you a market timer.
Point taken Al, but actually ANY rebalancing could be viewed as market timing in that one is buying stocks when they are low relative to bonds from the point you previously rebalanced and selling bonds which are high relative to stocks from the point at which you previously rebalanced.

While I don't have written rules for rebalancing (perhaps I should), I tend to think of rebalancing when my AA get more than 5% different from 60/40 or in January (whichever comes first). Doesn't happen very often that I rebalance other than in January.

I'll admit that in 08/09 when the "rule' would have had me selling bonds and buying stocks that I didn't have the confidence to do it and just stayed the course (frozen in the headlights). In retrospect I should have followed the rule.

Just curious or perhaps for another thread, but what "rules" do people use for rebalancing? are they written?
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Old 08-08-2011, 05:48 PM   #103
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Oh well, back to the 95% rule.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:04 PM   #104
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I predict the market will take a nose dive of approximately 5.5% and end with the DOW below 11000.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:08 PM   #105
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I guess that some websites actually published minute by minute events from the trading floor using services such as Twitter. What is the point of that? To alarm us even more? To further get people worked up? Like my old grand pappy used to say " The worst decisions are made in anger and in haste'"
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:16 PM   #106
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If you read my post last night you will see I said it would happen. Again for those who say they are not worried?? lets hear you say this at the end of the month. A good friend called me today and was in a panic. He has lost $150,000 in the market in the last two weeks . He is worth millions so it does not hurt him as much as it would me yet he is worried. I cannot see anything in the near future that tells me we are out of the woods yet.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:20 PM   #107
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Hopefully I will get better at DOW predictions !
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I predict up 0.3%.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:23 PM   #108
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Hopefully I will get better at DOW predictions !
Me too.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:25 PM   #109
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Hopefully I will get better at DOW predictions !
If you can do that, you'll be rich(er).
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:43 PM   #110
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If you read my post last night you will see I said it would happen. Again for those who say they are not worried?? lets hear you say this at the end of the month. A good friend called me today and was in a panic. He has lost $150,000 in the market in the last two weeks . He is worth millions so it does not hurt him as much as it would me yet he is worried. I cannot see anything in the near future that tells me we are out of the woods yet.
His panic is precisely what causes people to bail to cash at the market bottom. Big, big mistake.
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Old 08-08-2011, 06:46 PM   #111
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I predict up 1%.
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Old 08-08-2011, 07:04 PM   #112
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If you can do that, you'll be rich(er).
that would be gambling. I would just put myself in the position if I had a large amout of money in the market what would I do. I would get it out quick. I do keep up with things. I watch and listen. I have not seen many good signals lately on the economy getting better any time soon. Where are all the good paying jobs? Not sure about any of you and your area but I do know about where I live. Way to many people who had GOOD paying jobs that now are not working. I am talking a LOT. The ones in the 62 and under class I feel sorry for. I wonder how may Americans started SS before they wanted to Many. It is beginning to show. The SS fund cannot handle all us baby boomer's drawing SS at one time. Thats just one of the problems. I could go on and on but I think most here know where the problems are. Not sure how they can be fixed?
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Old 08-08-2011, 07:08 PM   #113
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I do not thing anyone knows where the bottom is? I would take a stab and guess? 9000 on the Dow. Thats probably where we should be anyway. Tomorrow, well I am going to guess again. Down 200

from a quote here
His panic is precisely what causes people to bail to cash at the market bottom. Big, big mistake.
You do not know where the bottom is and neither do I. If you have the $$$$ and you are young then stay. If you need that $$$ soon and you are older then get out.
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Old 08-08-2011, 07:28 PM   #114
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Is it time to buy yet?

.....It is indeed hard to catch a falling knife....
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Old 08-08-2011, 08:10 PM   #115
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If you read my post last night you will see I said it would happen. Again for those who say they are not worried?? lets hear you say this at the end of the month. A good friend called me today and was in a panic. He has lost $150,000 in the market in the last two weeks . He is worth millions so it does not hurt him as much as it would me yet he is worried. I cannot see anything in the near future that tells me we are out of the woods yet.
Did he actually lost it? Remember you don't realize the loss until the position is sold. If you did not sell, it is just paper loss.
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Old 08-08-2011, 08:53 PM   #116
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I do not agree on the loss thing. He has lost it. Will he get it back. Ask those who owned GM stock Health south stock most bank stocks. He is heavy in insurance stocks as he is the CEO of a major insurance company. I doubt those are going to rebound any time soon as they were inflated to begin with.
By the way, it is quite easy for one to say, well its only a paper loss. How many can stand the heat if it gets worse? I think many remember the last bubble that busted. Its funny how many people got right back in after that. Now lets see who stays and who takes the money and runs. I have never owned any stock and do not plan on ever buying any. I just do not trust how these companies are run. I wonder how many knew the market was going down now? I bet a few insiders did. Would they tell you. What is wrong with just making money and then just saving it? I know many here will tell me inflation will eat away at your cash. Well what about the current market crash?? I am old fashion. I have my money in real estate that I bought 35 years ago, Cd's and some gold coins. Not the gambling stock market. Oh I forgot, the stock market is investing, not gambling Hope all here that is in heavy makes out OK. I do not want to see anyone loose their life saving. Later. Tom
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Old 08-08-2011, 09:02 PM   #117
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I do not agree on the loss thing. He has lost it.
Nah. It depends on your perspective. The market is up from a year ago, up from 2 years ago. He hasn't lost, he has gained. Markets don't go straight up. If you count every dip down as a 'loss', you have to count every blip up as a 'gain'. If you count that way, he's UP, right?

Let's say he did a Rip Van Winkle for the past two years. He wakes up, checks his account balance and says "Wheee - I made money while I slept - I'm UP!". But you say he lost money. Both can't be true. Looking at the account balance every day does not change the truth. He is UP (unless he bought everything at the recent peaks).

-ERD50
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Old 08-08-2011, 09:21 PM   #118
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I can see why most of you don't like market timing as the your predictions for today were way off. Not that I could have done any better.
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Old 08-08-2011, 09:24 PM   #119
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Hopefully I will get better at DOW predictions !
You did better than I did.
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Old 08-08-2011, 09:40 PM   #120
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I do not agree on the loss thing. He has lost it. Will he get it back. Ask those who owned GM stock Health south stock most bank stocks. He is heavy in insurance stocks as he is the CEO of a major insurance company. I doubt those are going to rebound any time soon as they were inflated to begin with.
By the way, it is quite easy for one to say, well its only a paper loss. How many can stand the heat if it gets worse? I think many remember the last bubble that busted. Its funny how many people got right back in after that. Now lets see who stays and who takes the money and runs. I have never owned any stock and do not plan on ever buying any. I just do not trust how these companies are run. I wonder how many knew the market was going down now? I bet a few insiders did. Would they tell you. What is wrong with just making money and then just saving it? I know many here will tell me inflation will eat away at your cash. Well what about the current market crash?? I am old fashion. I have my money in real estate that I bought 35 years ago, Cd's and some gold coins. Not the gambling stock market. Oh I forgot, the stock market is investing, not gambling Hope all here that is in heavy makes out OK. I do not want to see anyone loose their life saving. Later. Tom
Never owned a stock and yet ER? My hat off to you OldTrig
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