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Old 08-08-2011, 10:12 PM   #121
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8:11 P.M. P.S.T.

It looks like we could suffer further carnage on Tuesday with the DJIA futures down 263 points and Japan's Nikkei down 4.43%. Again, it doesn't look pretty.
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Old 08-08-2011, 10:15 PM   #122
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Hang Seng down 1250+ points tonight, I guess they figure we won't be able to pay them.
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Old 08-08-2011, 10:25 PM   #123
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Action on crude oil is insane the last few days. At least where I am, the prices at the pump have not move down one cent.

So let's summarize

-Cost of living increases are fairly high relative to interest rates
-Markets are in freefall
-Any kind of fixed income investment pays 2% if you are lucky
-Multiple nations with debt crisis's
-Economic indicators pointing to a double dip rescission

Just brutal to be investing now. I have a 15 year timeline to hopeful retirement. I used to think that was a fairly long timeline but I'm getting pretty despondent at this point
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Old 08-08-2011, 10:34 PM   #124
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There seems to be a huge amount of new freshly printed money sitting on the sidelines right now. With yields at rock bottom that money is looking for a place to go, any place to get some yield. On top of that helicopter Ben has the rotors turning and the sacks full. With that in mind my cracked foggy and dirty crystal ball says the market will swoon in the morning and bounce back to a little positive by end of day.
On top of that The US is still the tallest Midget in the room and as long as we can borrow our way to happiness we have to. Any politician that tries to make any serious cuts will be out on his ear asap! Monday will just be another day.
Well so much for my prognostications.
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Old 08-08-2011, 11:26 PM   #125
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If you read my post last night you will see I said it would happen. Again for those who say they are not worried?? lets hear you say this at the end of the month. A good friend called me today and was in a panic. He has lost $150,000 in the market in the last two weeks . He is worth millions so it does not hurt him as much as it would me yet he is worried. I cannot see anything in the near future that tells me we are out of the woods yet.

I agree with you...all of the bad news has finally caught up with the stock market. To me it had felt like the bad news was being ignored as the market kept rising. I suppose now the good news will be ignored on the way back down.
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Old 08-08-2011, 11:28 PM   #126
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Did he actually lost it? Remember you don't realize the loss until the position is sold. If you did not sell, it is just paper loss.

The only difference between a "sold loss" and a "paper loss" are the tax consequences. I don't feel that's a good reason to keep riding the market down.
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Old 08-08-2011, 11:31 PM   #127
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Nah. It depends on your perspective. The market is up from a year ago, up from 2 years ago. He hasn't lost, he has gained. Markets don't go straight up. If you count every dip down as a 'loss', you have to count every blip up as a 'gain'. If you count that way, he's UP, right?

Let's say he did a Rip Van Winkle for the past two years. He wakes up, checks his account balance and says "Wheee - I made money while I slept - I'm UP!". But you say he lost money. Both can't be true. Looking at the account balance every day does not change the truth. He is UP (unless he bought everything at the recent peaks).

-ERD50
If you have a market going down, wouldn't you rather sell and then buy in at a much lower level? I just don't get the logic of riding a down market down even further....doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
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Old 08-09-2011, 12:29 AM   #128
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If you have a market going down, wouldn't you rather sell and then buy in at a much lower level? I just don't get the logic of riding a down market down even further....
Well, sure, if you know it's going to go down, it would be irrational not to sell. But you never know what it's going to do. Suppose you sell but then it goes up instead of down. Then you sold low, and if you buy back in later, you'll buy when it's higher. Uh-oh. Sell low, buy high? That's a losing strategy.
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Old 08-09-2011, 12:34 AM   #129
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If you have a market going down, wouldn't you rather sell and then buy in at a much lower level? I just don't get the logic of riding a down market down even further....doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
My approach is to follow the indexes (total stock, total international, total bonds) and maybe reallocate as often as each quarter if my allocations drift more than 5% of my target. To change course is to ignore my own approach which really is no system at all.

Also, there's no guarantee that the market won't jump 700 points the next week. Who really knows what direction day by day the direction of the market?

I'm following the market..going along for the bumpy ride
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Old 08-09-2011, 06:16 AM   #130
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Easy Surfer, you had better tighten your seat belt because this one is for real. We were warned and yet people stayed in. I said 200 down today but now I change that to 600. Td
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Old 08-09-2011, 06:52 AM   #131
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Easy Surfer, you had better tighten your seat belt because this one is for real. We were warned and yet people stayed in. I said 200 down today but now I change that to 600. Td
Belt tightened, tylonol ready, alka seltzer by my side, but I'm holding on and riding this out.

I'm really not worried and even purposely peeked at my portfolio last night to see how much it dropped (nearly 10% in the last week) because I know that during the upswing (whenever that will be) it's go up very quickly too. I'm optimistic. It'll balance out and then some, if you wait it out. We've been through this roller coaster type ride before.
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:14 AM   #132
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By the way, it is quite easy for one to say, well its only a paper loss. How many can stand the heat if it gets worse? I think many remember the last bubble that busted. Its funny how many people got right back in after that. Now lets see who stays and who takes the money and runs.
You said he has millions. If so, and if he kept it in a balanced AA (which you say he might mot have) it is a paper loss. As to that last bust, if you stood pat you did fine.

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I wonder how many knew the market was going down now? I bet a few insiders did. Would they tell you.
Heck, this dip was more than predictable. Everybody has been speculating about it for months. We had a thread on the possible impact of a debt ceiling clash at the beginning of the year. What isn't predictable is when it will bottom out.
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:18 AM   #133
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Easy Surfer, you had better tighten your seat belt because this one is for real. We were warned and yet people stayed in. I said 200 down today but now I change that to 600. Td
DOW futures are +140. Still sticking with -600?
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:31 AM   #134
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Well, sure, if you know it's going to go down, it would be irrational not to sell. But you never know what it's going to do. Suppose you sell but then it goes up instead of down. Then you sold low, and if you buy back in later, you'll buy when it's higher. Uh-oh. Sell low, buy high? That's a losing strategy.
Well, the risk of losing even more money to me is much worse than the risk of losing out on potential future gains, especially if someone like me, is retired and living off of their savings. Now if you have a long term goal with your money, yeah, you can ride out the ups and downs of the market to your heart's content.

One financial adviser I follow asks the following question: What do you think the odds of having another bear market in the future is? Most people would answer that question with 100% chance. So if there's a 100% chance of another bear market, why would anyone stay in the market all of the time?
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:36 AM   #135
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So if there's a 100% chance of another bear market, why would anyone stay in the market all of the time?
Maybe because there is a 100% chance you don't know the 'right' time to get out and get back in?
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:39 AM   #136
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Maybe because there is a 100% chance you don't know the 'right' time to get out and get back in?

Well, I can tell that the "buy and hold no matter what" sentiment dominates this forum. Interesting.
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:40 AM   #137
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If you have a market going down, wouldn't you rather sell and then buy in at a much lower level? I just don't get the logic of riding a down market down even further....doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.
Your assuming you can call the bottom, bad assumption.

Personally I've been on the sideline for a while and put a chunk back in yesterday, the "Buy when there is blood on the streets" philosophy seems to have worked well for me in the past.
TJ
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:41 AM   #138
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Well, I can tell that the "buy and hold no matter what" sentiment dominates this forum. Interesting.
It took you four years on this forum to figure that out?
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Old 08-09-2011, 07:43 AM   #139
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Well, I can tell that the "buy and hold no matter what" sentiment dominates this forum. Interesting.
It's buy, hold and REBALANCE" The last part kinda of forces you to sell high and buy low.
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Old 08-09-2011, 08:23 AM   #140
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One financial adviser I follow asks the following question: What do you think the odds of having another bear market in the future is? Most people would answer that question with 100% chance. So if there's a 100% chance of another bear market, why would anyone stay in the market all of the time?

Since markets can't be timed, with 100% chance of a bear market why would you be in the market at all?
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