what will happen Monday?

My SWAG would be a very vicious drop in the first 5 -10 minutes of Monday opening, followed by wild gyrations all over the map.

I think we will end Monday with a fairly large drop, but the following days should be more stable.

I entered several orders for blue chip stocks ( CVX, JNJ, PG ) at about 20% below their Friday close. All I need is get one or two filled, and I'll be sitting on a terrific dividend income stream for some time.
 
donheff said:
I am surprised no one has started a thread about the downgrade yet. So here is a short one: does the market fall off a cliff or is this news already factored in?
Click to expand...

IMHO, I don't believe the S&P downgrade has been factored in yet. The DJIA futures are down 224 points, while Japan's Nikkei is down 359 points (3.72%). To answer your question, I don't think Monday will be pretty on Wall Street.
 
My best guess - big deep panic dip then back up again before the day ends - perhaps even to what the market closed at Friday or above. I think this will be thanks to all those who see a bargin and are much braver than I. Still not ready to dive into the deep end of this pool. Not selling, but do think this one's different than the others. Politics, China and the downgrade among other factors.

Things I'm worried about more than stock values in the near future include interest rates, unemployment and the real estate market.
 
I think that uncertainty has turned to certainty and current prices reflect this. I think that everyone just wants to get on with life. Market will probably end up even or a bit up on Monday.
 
I am not in the market, but always pay attention to what is going on in the world. On a financial network tonight some talking heads, I think they are called experts, say the market will bounce back by the end of the year but watch out for 2012. They predict everything will take a huge hit next year. Stocks, gold, real estate, blah-blah-blah, will be way down next year. The only safe investment will be T-bills. They relate this to the failure of the stimulus package. Was there a stimulus package?
 
I would bet anyone money that the market is down big time Monday. Anyone that tells me they are not worried is on something. This has been coming for some time. The US citizens are living on credit. I know many people who have no saving and they don't care. Their thinking is the government will take care of them:confused:? Get ready for a rough ride for some time. We were warned long time ago. Tom
 
Things seem to be getting better. The DJIA futures are now down only 167 points with the Nikkei showing no change from Friday. Overall, the Asia-Pacific index is down only 1.5% at 10:29 P.M. E.S.T.
 
There seems to be a huge amount of new freshly printed money sitting on the sidelines right now. With yields at rock bottom that money is looking for a place to go, any place to get some yield. On top of that helicopter Ben has the rotors turning and the sacks full. With that in mind my cracked foggy and dirty crystal ball says the market will swoon in the morning and bounce back to a little positive by end of day.
On top of that The US is still the tallest Midget in the room and as long as we can borrow our way to happiness we have to. Any politician that tries to make any serious cuts will be out on his ear asap! Monday will just be another day.
 
We will meet back here tomorrow night and see who's right and who's wrong. I have not right on much lately so maybe it bounce back. :dance::dance:Tom
 
I'm expecting a drop of at least 200 points for the DOW. That almost certainly means that it'll go up:confused:
 
What will happen Monday will be interesting but it is the long term impacts that will interest me. With the downgrade the most similar situation is obviously Japan, I find it fascinating that in August of 1989 JAPAN's stock market topped out and 11 1/2 years later their credit rating was cut after a huge drop in real estate and stock values and the ensuing problems created when Japan had to deal with in their banks. 10 years later Japan has a stock market down a further 35%.

March of 2000 the Nasdaq a.k.a. "the new economy" collapsed leading ultimately to a huge drop in real estate, ultimately led by the California real estate bubble popping around the country and stock values and 11 1/2 years later USA has their credit rating cut in dealing with not only their banks but to a large extent European banks as well. Which has curtailed the impact that might have occurred had Ben only to deal with the US.

With borrowings of 40 cents of every dollar needed to operate the government the US would need to tax every US worker over $10,000 to balance the budget for one year, without addressing a single state or municipality need, nor the collapse of the economy such a tax could obviously create.

Tho spending of this type of government with the present tax base appears to me to be unsustainable, the most recent actions have been to eliminate and it seems it will be to continue the reduction in the Social Security tax by 2% of all wages, now labeled as a "payroll tax savings". Meanwhile Social Security recipients needs continues an inexorable appetite on the funds of the US government, as like Japan its society ages . Just a sole topic of a myriad of interesting topics to be handled "in the future", of course after the economy is back in order after discussion by the leaders of the government.

This all is very interesting
 
oldtrig said:
We will meet back here tomorrow night and see who's right and who's wrong.
Click to expand...
Then I had best vote while there's time. I'm with Sevo. Up a bit by the end of Monday. Reason: we've made a bad investment environment here, but we'll get away with it, because elsewhere is worse.
 
Knowing the market as I've observed it for more than two decades, I suspect there will be a "sigh of relief" that the so-called bad news is out and it will rally. Maybe not at the opening bell, as the panic sell orders have to be filled, but I suspect it will gap down quickly followed by a snapback. Just a guess, obviously.
 
Well given my recient entry point I decided to go to a better and more reliable method of tracking the stock market. I asked the following question?

Where will the market close, UP or Down?
magic_8_ball-133553-1.jpeg


Well that was helpful.
 
Coolius said:
My SWAG would be a very vicious drop in the first 5 -10 minutes of Monday opening, followed by wild gyrations all over the map.

I think we will end Monday with a fairly large drop, but the following days should be more stable.
Click to expand...

JOHNNIE36 said:
On a financial network tonight some talking heads, I think they are called experts, say the market will bounce back by the end of the year but watch out for 2012. They predict everything will take a huge hit next year. Stocks, gold, real estate, blah-blah-blah, will be way down next year. The only safe investment will be T-bills. They relate this to the failure of the stimulus package. Was there a stimulus package?
Click to expand...
I haven't done any market timing since the dips and rises have been too fast to trigger rebalancing but I plan to grab about 10% equities if the market goes down and stays down today. I hope the financial experts are right about the stimulus (many think the effects won't actually hit the numbers until later this fall). If they are right then 2012 could be bad as the effects tail off. If we get a bump through the end of the year I plan to rebalance downward to a little lower on equities than going in. Of course, it is probably just as likely that we will just go down further and stay down for a long time and I will get a nasty reminder that market timing is for fools. :)
 
Well everyone get the [-]popcorn[/-] donuts and turn on TV for the opening bell.
 
Going to be a rough opening.

FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-9.39)

11444.61 11182.0 -220.00 11392.61 11182.0 -210.61
Last Updated: 08:40:00 AM

S&P 500
1month

FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-1.82)

1199.38 1172.3 -25.50 1195.98 1172.3 -23.68
 
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