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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-04-2006, 04:30 PM   #41
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

The fed funds future market is probably the best predictor of what the fed will do. Right now, pause is ahead by a nose.

You can watch the action here:

fed funds predictor
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-04-2006, 04:45 PM   #42
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

How do we read those graphs?

High probability that the Fed will pause in Aug, but raise 0.25 point in September?

Audrey
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-04-2006, 04:56 PM   #43
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
How do we read those graphs?
They have different betting lines for the next rate: 5%, 5.25%, 5.5%, and 5.75%.

The market says about a 60% chance of it staying at 5.25% at the next meeting, and probabilties are about equal for 5.25% vs 5.5% in Sept.
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