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What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 11:19 AM   #1
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What will the FED Do Next?

Anyone want to speculate what the FED will do at the Next FOMC Meeting? Decrease, Tighten, Pause and by how Much?

I recon they will increase another 0.25 Point, although a lot of pundits seem to thing that an increase of 0.5 is not out of the question. Personally I do not think they would do that because of the ramifications in the stock market.

SWR
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 11:48 AM   #2
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Need to see this weeks data. But if I would have to guess today, they would pause.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 11:52 AM   #3
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

I'd imagine they will pause, but there is a lot more data coming out this week that will tip the balance either way. If they bump rates here, I think that's it for at least a few months.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 11:54 AM   #4
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

The market says there's a 70% chance they'll pause.

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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 03:51 PM   #5
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

He's a member here, why dont we ask him?
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:03 PM   #6
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Another .25% and lots of tough talk.

The U.S. is starting to crater.* If they pause they will have inflation they can not control due to poor Treasury auction results.

Painted into box.* *
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:20 PM   #7
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

And wait for the housing implosion to really take effect and squash consumer spending...
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:34 PM   #8
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
And wait for the housing implosion to really take effect and squash consumer spending...
Negative savings rate for 16 consecutive months.

Consumer was tapped out long ago.

If we can not sell new treasury debt then the long end of the yield curve will jump to entice foreign central banks to borrow = inflation the Fed can not control.


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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:36 PM   #9
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Well at least a housing crash will be interesting.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:42 PM   #10
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
Well at least a housing crash will be interesting.
And I think all on this board are ready for the fireworks. Bring it on.

SWR
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 04:47 PM   #11
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider
And I think all on this board are ready for the fireworks. Bring it on.

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I just realized - I sold my house 31 July 2005 and my rental property 1 August 2005.


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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 05:32 PM   #12
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

I'm pretty sure the Fed will Pause here. The Fed needed to make darn sure that housing is finally cooling off. Also at this level the Fed can work the rate either up or down and still have a lot of wiggle room.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 06:02 PM   #13
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
I'm pretty sure the Fed will Pause here. The Fed needed to make darn sure that housing is finally cooling off. Also at this level the Fed can work the rate either up or down and still have a lot of wiggle room.
The bad thing is oil is priced in U.S. dollars. If the Fed pauses crude goes over $80 and the long end of the yield curve spikes - really killing the housing market.


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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 07-31-2006, 06:04 PM   #14
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Maybe its not so bad the housing market takes a hit. All over valued pieces of wood.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:33 AM   #15
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

8/1/06 U.S. CORE INFLATION RATE MATCHES AN 11-YEAR HIGH* * :P
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:46 AM   #16
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Yeah, not exactly the sign the Fed was hoping for. I think the jobs number on friday will have an impact. The tricky bit is that there are a lot of lagged effects of prior rate hikes we haven't fully seen, so it is hard to know exactly when to stop raising for fear of choking off growth.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:46 AM   #17
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

I'd like to see housing prices fall low enough that I could buy up the McMansion orchard up the street, tear down all the houses, and restore it to fields like it used to be. I doubt if it'll ever get that low though.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:48 AM   #18
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Nice to see income is up.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:51 AM   #19
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
Nice to see income is up.
Another reason the fed can not pause.
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?
Old 08-01-2006, 07:52 AM   #20
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Re: What will the FED Do Next?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
Another reason the fed can not pause.* *
I guess. However it smacks around that theory of oh noes the consumer isnt spending anymore* At least they have the money to do it with.
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