What will the next bubble be?

[greg]

Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are, as ha said, natural market forces at work (supply & demand) in the market place, and then there are bigger problems. My guess is that most largish and real bubbles are created from an exuberance or rapture of debt--too much money in imprudent (or overly greedy?) hands. Our current housing bubble was created when the desire for more money and stuff were combined with mortgage brokers with the money to buy those things we desired at 'very good' (unnatural?) rates. Dotcom bubble? Lots of banker money floating around fast and loose during those times, lots of money given to Enron on the observation of a 'nice' song and dance related to making money in new ways. Oh, the rapture. Oh, the debt that remains afterward. My guess, look for the debt formation that precedes bubbles.

Our forefathers didn't like bankers after certain periods of exuberance for a reason--is my guess. Prudent behavior is good?

 

[tightasadrum]

food bubble?

Based on absolutely nothing other than the specter of bad luck, my prediction is that the next bubble will be in food prices.

I don't think a food "bubble" is in the cards, but food costs, like anything else, will follow the supply/demand laws of economics. I remember people grumbling about the cost of food ever since I was following my mother around the grocery store. Remember when a loaf of bread hit $1.00? It was on the nightly news for heavens sake.

So inflation in food ahead? Absolutely, but not a bubble. People have ways to produce food even if it means they plow up their front yard and plant beans and potatoes. Irrational speculation of a commodity defines a bubble.

One can hedge against this by investing in commodity futures. I have.

 

[TargaDave]

My bubble prediction is primarily in greenback printing from the Fed. Heck, more like an ongoing observation rather than prediction. Maybe not a bubble but in many ways even worse; a continual nasty leak. Nothing like minimizing future obligations (medicare, SS) with cheaper greenbacks and priming voters for elections at the same time

 

[Robert the Red]

Nothing like minimizing future obligations (medicare, SS) with cheaper greenbacks and priming voters for elections at the same time

Medicare and SS are not financial obligations denominated in current dollars. Medicare is a service obligation, and SS has a built-in inflation protection. So cheapening the dollar doesn't help with these. What it does help with is the debt we've run up, which is in current dollars. Of course, that just is a temporary fix, since future debt would end up being at a higher interest rate. Unless we stop running such huge deficits .

 

[happy2bretired]

An article in this morning's newspaper stated that student loans may be the next real estate bubble. Sounds like many students are taking out very high interest loans from private lenders, such as Wells Fargo, etc. Some of these loans equate to mortage payments. Defaults will follow as students enter the workforce at lower than expected salaries and as their parents enter retirement, not being able to help them out. Interesing....

 

[CybrMike]

Here's a cool bubble that you may not have heard about: domaining. Let me explain. Generic internet domain names (i.e. seniors.com, creditcheck.com, bald.com, etc.) have sold for REALLY big money in the past year ($3 mil, $1.8 mil, and $400,000 respectively). I'm not sure if or when this bubble will burst, but it's fun to follow!

I have friends that play in this world and can confirm that their is a definite bubble in internet domains.

Now is a good time to be selling any good ones you have laying around.

 

[clifp]

Back in 1994 I could have registered PC.com. I was a good boy, and registered it for Intel instead...

 

[RockOn]

If you are looking for a bubble to end, check out the "inverse" of tyx. 27 years in one direction. Isn't that looking like a bubble about to burst?

 

[chinaco]

Not sure if it will be the next bubble or some future one. I am not sure exactly of the specific area.

But there will be gold rush fever around boomers' retirement. That wave of people and money will draw the crowd. There will be a few investment type bubbles develop.

These bubbles seem to happen due to the next new/big thing or the scarcity of something. Energy and Health care seem to be a couple of areas where certain break throughs are needed.