What will the next bubble be?

Retire Soon · 09-05-2007, 10:46 AM

During the past twelve years, we've experienced both the "dot-com bubble" and the "housing bubble." Speculators continue to lose enormous amounts of money. The subprime crisis is now negatively effecting economies around the world. We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed. The only thing we can really count on is that history will repeat itself. Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?

Nords · 09-05-2007, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire Soon

Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?

Commodities, followed by Pokémon cards...

brewer12345 · 09-05-2007, 10:53 AM

Its about time for energy to be the bubble. Been long enough since the last episode of hard time for that industry for everyone to forget, and there is plenty of fast and dangerousy stupid money that has since jumped into the pool.

Eyerishgold · 09-05-2007, 10:57 AM

Gold.

Everybody and their mother will want the "safety" that gold offers. With the volatility in stocks and the real estate bubble bursting, I see tons of people investing in gold. It'll get pushed up to around $1200/oz. and then the bottom will fall out of that as well because as Retire Soon so elequently put it "We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed."

jIMOh · 09-05-2007, 11:01 AM

International is the next bubble which will burst. The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.

Energy sounds like a good one to me. People seam to be putting lots of money in natural resources types funds and appears to be where everyone wants to go.

So right now I would be buying
a) financials
b) consumer durables
c) Tech

and holding/selling international and energy

**CuppaJoe** · 09-05-2007, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jIMOh

International is the next bubble which will burst. The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.

Energy sounds like a good one to me. People seam to be putting lots of money in natural resources types funds and appears to be where everyone wants to go.

So right now I would be buying
a) financials
b) consumer durables
c) Tech

and holding/selling international and energy

I'll buy what you are saying! One of the reasons I bailed out of equities recently was that the housing news seemed to so affect the international markets. BTY, I did very well in an international fund.

I'm thinking that any mass movements by baby boomers could affect the markets. People are being advised to retire to less expensive areas and rent before buying. How about a bubble in retirement apartment complex building?

haha · 09-05-2007, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Its about time for energy to be the bubble. Been long enough since the last episode of hard time for that industry for everyone to forget, and there is plenty of fast and dangerousy stupid money that has since jumped into the pool.

I assume that you are saying that energy is currently a bubble, but it will soon burst? Is that correct?

Ha

Nords · 09-05-2007, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jIMOh

The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble.

The government of which country?

HFWR · 09-05-2007, 11:56 AM

Re: The dollar - Don't forget the mints in Denver, San Fran, Philly, Tehran, and Pyongyang...

brewer12345 · 09-05-2007, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha

I assume that you are saying that energy is currently a bubble, but it will soon burst? Is that correct?

Ha

Actually, I don't think energy is at bubble proportions. I see the same cost to find and lifting cost trends as everyone else: nothing but upwards. That means that the floor level at which producers have to be paid continues to drift upwards at a healthy rate, and I see no signs of that stopping any time soon. But every drilling rig in existence seems to be pressed into service and this industry has a long history of boom and bust cycles, so eventually it will spawn a new bubble. The capital maret are already force-feeding money into the sector, so the potential is there.

I think you are safe for now, Ha, but pay attention. If you start seeing producers refuse to shut in production when prices slip, be on your guard.

twaddle · 09-05-2007, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retire Soon

Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?

China, and probably emerging markets in general, are already in bubble territory.

Shipping stocks will probably be the next bubble.

To find a bubble, look for good initial fundamentals followed by a flock of speculators rushing in.

brewer12345 · 09-05-2007, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle

Shipping stocks will probably be the next bubble.

Not yet, though. Valuations are still pretty low vs. charter rates and asset prices. But eventually they will overbuild like they always do.

In the meantime, the bulker stocks are very attractively priced.

FinanceDude · 09-05-2007, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle

China, and probably emerging markets in general, are already in bubble territory.

Shipping stocks will probably be the next bubble.

To find a bubble, look for good initial fundamentals followed by a flock of speculators rushing in.

I predict the following:

Ethanol Bubble
Biodiesel Bubble
Coal Tar Bubble
Lithium Bubble (hybrid car batteries)

teachme · 09-05-2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eyerishgold

Gold.

+1 and add silver and maybe palladium. The usual summer bashing is taking place along with the PM sell offs for all of the big players to cover their rear ends due to the dollar losses.

Silver:
If the accused naked short selling of silver is investigated and corrected then silver will have a nice day indeed.

Palladium:
If some of the industries that currently use platinum decide to switch to palladium then it could be interesting. It might be just long enough from Ford getting burned that corporations will see that retooling and using palladium for significantly less might be the ticket.

haha · 09-05-2007, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

I predict the following:

Coal Tar Bubble

This would indeed be an unexpected one! Coar tar is a carcinogen, an ingrediant in some old but still curently used medicines, and a product of 19th century chemical industrial processing of coal.

Wow, what a bubble that would be!

Ha

FinanceDude · 09-05-2007, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha

This would indeed be an unexpected one! Coar tar is a carcinogen, an ingrediant in some old but still curently used medicines, and a product of 19th century chemical industrial processing of coal.

Wow, what a bubble that would be!

Ha

Didn't Brer Rabbit get in trouble with coal tar??

haha · 09-05-2007, 05:06 PM

I figured that was tar from petroleum, but don't know that it was specified.

Ha

Walter-NJ · 09-05-2007, 05:13 PM

But let's not underestimate the effect on the USD, given the amount of their currency reserves....

(BTW first post! Been a reader for a while though...)

justin · 09-05-2007, 05:18 PM

Yeah, I'll vote +1 on China. Everything else others have posted - maybe. China is the only thing I see as a definite, obvious bubble today.

09-05-2007, 10:46 AM	#1
Retire Soon Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 535	What will the next bubble be? During the past twelve years, we've experienced both the "dot-com bubble" and the "housing bubble." Speculators continue to lose enormous amounts of money. The subprime crisis is now negatively effecting economies around the world. We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed. The only thing we can really count on is that history will repeat itself. Does anyone have any predictions on what the next economic bubble will be?

09-05-2007, 10:53 AM	#3
brewer12345 Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,248	Its about time for energy to be the bubble. Been long enough since the last episode of hard time for that industry for everyone to forget, and there is plenty of fast and dangerousy stupid money that has since jumped into the pool. __________________ “When you realize that you are one of the rare few who observe moral principles in their relationships with others, there is a temptation to sink into amorality, not out of conviction or pleasure but simply to avoid further pain, because there is no greater suffering than being an angel in hell, whereas a devil feels at home wherever he goes.” – Martin Page, How I Became Stupid

09-05-2007, 11:01 AM	#5
jIMOh Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Milford, OH Posts: 1,204	International is the next bubble which will burst. The government is controlling the dollar, and once they reverse their control, that bubble will crumble. Energy sounds like a good one to me. People seam to be putting lots of money in natural resources types funds and appears to be where everyone wants to go. So right now I would be buying a) financials b) consumer durables c) Tech and holding/selling international and energy __________________ Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.

09-05-2007, 11:56 AM	#9
HFWR Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: May 2005 Location: DFW Posts: 5,435	Re: The dollar - Don't forget the mints in Denver, San Fran, Philly, Tehran, and Pyongyang... __________________ Have Funds, Will Retire Two turntables and a microphone...

09-05-2007, 05:06 PM	#17
haha Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Seattle Posts: 8,474	I figured that was tar from petroleum, but don't know that it was specified. Ha __________________ "Show 'em just enough to win the turkey."- Former KY Governor Bert Combs

09-05-2007, 10:57 AM	#4
Eyerishgold Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 195	Gold. Everybody and their mother will want the "safety" that gold offers. With the volatility in stocks and the real estate bubble bursting, I see tons of people investing in gold. It'll get pushed up to around $1200/oz. and then the bottom will fall out of that as well because as Retire Soon so elequently put it "We never seem to learn from past mistakes which are always motivated by greed."

09-05-2007, 05:13 PM	#18
Walter-NJ Confused about dryer sheets Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 1	+1 for China But let's not underestimate the effect on the USD, given the amount of their currency reserves.... (BTW first post! Been a reader for a while though...)

09-05-2007, 05:18 PM	#19
justin Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,010	Yeah, I'll vote +1 on China. Everything else others have posted - maybe. China is the only thing I see as a definite, obvious bubble today.

09-05-2007, 05:30 PM	#20
twaddle Thinks s/he gets paid by the post