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Old 12-29-2007, 07:13 PM   #21
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IRR (yen base):

2001: -4.7%
2002: -15.8%
2003: 11.9%
2004: 13.0%
2005: 26.4%
2006: 10.2%
2007: 6.9%

2007 is a very rough estimate using numbers that haven't been updated in 2-3 months. Don't know whether the final number will end up higher or lower once the final quarterly statements are in.

2003-2007 5-year geometric mean: 13.5%
Paid out better than the sock drawer, so no complaints.
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Old 12-29-2007, 07:50 PM   #22
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2003 20%
2004 1%
2005 45.9%
2006 24.8%
2007 46.8%

All individual stocks mostly in energy and Junior mining. This year I was up 96% in July but I had a pretty ugly summer/fall.
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Old 12-30-2007, 10:17 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40 View Post
2003: 3.85%
2004: 4.18%
2005: 3.42%
2006: 7.06%
2007: 11.27% (through 11/30/07)

Average ROI: 5.956%

I'm including all cash accounts in this calculation, otherwise I'd be considerably higher.
Whenever I see a thread like this, I see more errors than correct calculations. The above calculation is totally incorrect. He has merely averaged the 5 years and came up with 5.956% (3 decimals is really impressive, but it's still wrong)

You are totally ignoring weighting.

Example take $10 for 5 years - 1st year return 50%, 2nd year 40%, 3rd - 30%, 4th - 20% and 5th 10% - at the end of 5 years you'd have $54.05 If you average the returns together - you would say you have a 30% return.

Take the same $10 and apply a 30% return to it for 5 years and you get $37.13

Reverse the percentages starting with 10% and moving to 50% and you get $36.03
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Old 12-30-2007, 10:34 AM   #24
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This from the guy who had to ask how to calculate a dividend yield after a NAV change.

A stanking 12.5% annualized for me. Given that theres no single stock risk, and a ridiculously low risk premium factored in (as in half the 5 years having most of my money in wellesley)...not so bad.

And why are we excluding real estate? I've made about 450k over the last 5 years in three separate transactions. That would bump my numbers up a tad.

If I feared risk and volatility, I'd pay off my debts including my mortgage and put the rest in a 60/40 balanced index and not worry about the volatility.
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Old 12-30-2007, 11:43 AM   #25
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It's kind of fun to see how other people did. However, I don't really believe the numbers. I'm sure a few posters calculated correctly and were honest about results. Also their AA is not my AA. Also everyone has cash flows which make these calculations questionable at best.

Here are 5 year results and 1 year results for two balanced funds which currently have 66% stock allocations:

Code:
 
DODBX  11.95%  1.8%  Dodge & Cox balanced
VWELX  12.57%  8.6%  Vanguard Wellington
I would be lying if I told you what my 5yr result is because the cash flows are just too wierd to deal with. I can deal with the cash flows for this year and so far this year my return was ...... drum roll ...... something like 8.3% for a 55% equity portfolio. Those TIPS helped. U.S. to foreign equity ratio is 2:1. The U.S. part is tilted to large growth currently.

Since Trek started this perhaps he'd like to step up to the plate?
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Old 12-30-2007, 10:34 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lsbcal View Post
It's kind of fun to see how other people did. However, I don't really believe the numbers. I'm sure a few posters calculated correctly and were honest about results. Also their AA is not my AA. Also everyone has cash flows which make these calculations questionable at best.

Here are 5 year results and 1 year results for two balanced funds which currently have 66% stock allocations:

Code:
 
DODBX  11.95%  1.8%  Dodge & Cox balanced
VWELX  12.57%  8.6%  Vanguard Wellington
I would be lying if I told you what my 5yr result is because the cash flows are just too wierd to deal with. I can deal with the cash flows for this year and so far this year my return was ...... drum roll ...... something like 8.3% for a 55% equity portfolio. Those TIPS helped. U.S. to foreign equity ratio is 2:1. The U.S. part is tilted to large growth currently.

Since Trek started this perhaps he'd like to step up to the plate?
Why wouldn't you believe other people were honest about their results? I don't see anything outlandish. In my case there are no cash flow issues to complicate the calculations. An IRA that was rolled over from a 401-k. No deposits, no withdrawals, no taxes. Just compare balance from one year to the next.
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Old 12-31-2007, 10:24 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trapshooter View Post
Why wouldn't you believe other people were honest about their results? I don't see anything outlandish. ...
Didn't mean to really impugn the motives of any of the posters. It's just that when talking about a 5yr period one can make a lot of mistakes. I'm sure everyone intended to post correct results.
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Old 12-31-2007, 04:07 PM   #28
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My 5 year average return is 12.3%.

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Old 12-31-2007, 04:20 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40
2003: 3.85%
2004: 4.18%
2005: 3.42%
2006: 7.06%
2007: 11.27% (through 11/30/07)

Average ROI: 5.956%
I calculated an average return for these five years to be about 5.92%.

In case someone would like to know the method:
total return over all five years as a percentage = 100*((1.0385 * 1.0418 * 1.0342 * 1.0706 * 1.1127) - 1)
= 33.29%
to get the 5-year average annual return:
10^(log(1.11329)/5)
= 10^(0.1248/5)
= 10^(0.024960)
= 1.05916
or as a percentage, (1.05916 - 1)*100 = 5.92%

If we are talking $1,000,000, then the difference is about 0.036% per year or about $360/year or about $2,267 (0.227%) over 5 years.

So, 5.956% is not accurate, but over this range the difference is small.
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Old 01-01-2008, 07:15 AM   #30
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2003 38.00%
2004 28.00%
2005 18.00%
2006 13.73%
2007 13.55%

CAGR for 5 years = 21.90%

Allocation - 100% equities, no new money added except IRA contribution on 1st day of the year, following mutual fund momentum strategy.
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Old 01-01-2008, 12:58 PM   #31
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Old 01-01-2008, 02:08 PM   #32
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2003 - 14.7%
2004 - 7.4%
2005 - 10.8%
2006 - 14.5%
2007 - 6.7%

TR = 66.8%
CAGR = 10.8%

YCMV; I ran out of fingers AND toes...
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Old 01-01-2008, 03:04 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
The 5-year annualized return of a Merriman (FundAdvice.com - Home) slice-and-diced Vanguard portfolio with 75% equities and 25% bonds is around 16.6%. (Calculated by Morningstar portfolio manager). Ticker symbols in the portfolio: NAESX, VDMIX, VEIEX, VFINX, VFTSX, VFITX, VGSIX, VISVX, VIVAX, VTRIX.

The 1-, 3-, 5- returns are 8.7%, 12.7% and 16.6%.

I'm not finding that portfolio - closest seen is this:
VANGUARD BALANCED - BUY-AND-HOLD
($50,000 minimum) 6%Vanguard 500 Index(VFINX) LCB
6%Vanguard Value Index(VIVAX) LCV6%Vanguard Small Cap Index(NAESX) SCB6%Vanguard Small Cap Value Index(VISVX) SCV6% Vanguard REIT Index (VGSIX) REIT12%Vanguard Developed Markets Index(VDMIX) Int'l LCB
12%Vanguard International Value(VTRIX) Int'l LCV
6%Vanguard Emerging Market Index(VEIEX) EM20%Vanguard Intermediate Term US Treasuries
(VFITX) Inter. Bond
12%Vanguard Short Term Treasuries
(VFISX) Short Bond
8% Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities (VIPSX)TIPS
which is a 60/40 mix - what porfolio are you looking at?
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Old 01-01-2008, 08:16 PM   #34
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16.3% last five years annualized. Thanks to the international investments, especially in emerging markets.
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Old 01-01-2008, 09:49 PM   #35
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5 year annualized return.....24.67%
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Old 01-02-2008, 11:56 AM   #36
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2003-2007 annualized return: 15.8%

Passively managed funds. 80/20 equity/bond AA.

lsbcal,

I'm still in accumulation phase. I use the simplifying assumption that total amount invested over the year is equally added over each month. It's not correct, but pretty close. I'm happy with the method.

Trek,

For a single fund I'd recommend a balanced fund that comes closest to your desired AA.

For two funds, a US Total Stock Market and Short Term Bond fund.

For three funds, the above two plus a Total International Stock Market fund.
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Old 01-02-2008, 02:25 PM   #37
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My annualized 5 year return is somewhere between 12-14.5% depending on how I account for withdrawals. To calculate my one year return I take the
previous years closing value and compare it to the current years closing plus the amount I withdrew. People who are generating earned income have a similar issue when calculating return.
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Old 01-02-2008, 02:52 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
A stanking 12.5% annualized for me. Given that theres no single stock risk, and a ridiculously low risk premium factored in (as in half the 5 years having most of my money in wellesley)...not so bad.
That is a GREAT return, under the circumstances, even considering the great market returns for the first four years. Why did you get out of Wellesley? To get a higher return? I am planning to put 30% of my nearly mythical inheritance (should the banks ever let me have it) in Wellesley because it looks like a good investment for someone in ER that wants assured income (even if it isn't staggeringly high).

Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
And why are we excluding real estate? I've made about 450k over the last 5 years in three separate transactions. That would bump my numbers up a tad.
The OP can speak for hirself, but if one wants to see how well others did in the stock/bond market, real estate should be excluded. Real estate appreciation seems to be very much affected by regional real estate dynamics.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
If I feared risk and volatility, I'd pay off my debts including my mortgage and put the rest in a 60/40 balanced index and not worry about the volatility.
I fear risk and volatility, and I have paid off my debts including my mortgage. My plans for ER would have just 45-50% equities, though, instead of 60%, for "Plan A" (which assumes my inheritance comes through as expected). For "Plan B" (in which the inheritance does not play a part) I'll have to do 60% equities and just be tough minded!
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Old 01-02-2008, 04:38 PM   #39
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Vanguard tells me 11.8%, which is where the vast majority of my money is now. They tell me this is an IRR calculation, and by the sounds of it they've accounted for any cash flows in/out. The Vanguard funds are all either tax-deferred or don't generate enough income to generate taxes, so no adjustment necessary for taxes.

That number excludes the effects of the divorce, selling two houses and buying two others, and income on some other investments, and a small 401(k), so in reality I have no idea.

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Old 01-02-2008, 05:44 PM   #40
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That is a GREAT return, under the circumstances, even considering the great market returns for the first four years. Why did you get out of Wellesley?
I got married and my wife wanted to keep working part time. We didnt need...or want...the high income level and its associated taxes. With a trickle of an income stream I could also take more chances and be less concerned about volatility. I ended up recently buying back into the fund as our new house, its 2x utilities and property taxes (etc) mean a little more income is useful and we've done well enough that I dont need to keep swinging for the fences.

Quote:
The OP can speak for hirself, but if one wants to see how well others did in the stock/bond market, real estate should be excluded. Real estate appreciation seems to be very much affected by regional real estate dynamics.
Fair enough, but the question had to do with return on invested money. I know plenty of people dont consider their primary residence an investment, but I do. What, where and when I buy are factors for potential future return. Stock/bond appreciation also has a big effect in how its 'regionalized'
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