View Poll Results: The FIREcalc success rate of my actual/planned FIRE financial plan is:
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100%
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57 |
44.53% |
95% - 99%
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51 |
39.84% |
90% - 94%
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8 |
6.25% |
85% - 89%
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3 |
2.34% |
80% - 84%
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6 |
4.69% |
75% - 80%
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0 |
0% |
70% - 74%
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0 |
0% |
< 70%
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3 |
2.34% |
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What's your FIREcalc success rate?
07-06-2007, 03:42 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Boston
Posts: 620
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What's your FIREcalc success rate?
If you've already reached FIRE, what did FIREcalc say about the success rate of your plan?
Or if you haven't FIREd yet, to what FIREcalc success rate is your plan targeted?
Edited to add: Forgot to mention that my current FIRE target hits a 93% success rate on FIREcalc.
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07-06-2007, 04:07 PM
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#2
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 549
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My original FIREcalc success rate was 100% but that was using what I considered to be "average" needs and with 25% of my yearly $$$'s assigned to variable unforseen expenses ....but then I re-ran the program lowering my allocation to equities and increasing the amount that I could use each year and I got a 95% result.....so my vote was 95%.
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07-06-2007, 04:40 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 251
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I've run numerous scenarios. Success rate for the current plan is 100%. I am retiring at year's end. Keeping my fingers crossed.
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07-06-2007, 07:31 PM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 577
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If my plans would stop changing....
And if my goals would stop changing....
And if my dreams would stop changing....
Maybe I could tell you!
And I used to only accept 100. Now I'm going with 89 point something.
I'm retiring anyway. Working the plan after the fact.
FireCalc is mostly supporting every changed plan, goal and dream, so I'm thinking I must have rigged it that way.
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07-06-2007, 08:15 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Los Angeles area
Posts: 1,708
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Retired last year at 48. Never tried FireCalc, but I am living comfortably on 72t
withdrawals (funded by dividends) plus dividends on my after-tax pile, totaling
about 3% of my nearly 100% stock allocation.
I do not use Firecalc because I plan to live on dividends, not on a fixed initial
amount plus inflation adjustments. Since my "budget" is at least 50-60% travel
and entertainment, it would be easy to adjust down if needed. However, I think
the chance of the stocks I rely on lowering their dividends (PG, JNJ, KIM,
VNO, WRE, etc) is slim.
__________________
learn, work, save, invest, fire
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07-06-2007, 08:17 PM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 335
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My current plan (ER in 5 years) will be about 3% withdrawal rate, before SS starts a few years later. When SS kicks in, even less.
That's why I bought an iPhone.
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07-06-2007, 08:43 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Despite a success rate of 100% indicated by FIRE, I have not ERed. I am waiting for 4 years until my youngest daughter enters college.
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07-06-2007, 09:28 PM
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#8
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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I started out at 90% but then read Bernstein's five-part "Calculator from Hell" series and stopped worrying about it.
Since then it's risen to 100%.
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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07-06-2007, 10:33 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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My SWR is 3.4%. Where did I read that anything over 80% is sufficient (suggestion being that there is an ~20% chance of total meltdown ie Germany in 30's UK in 40's, Japan in 90's)
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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07-06-2007, 11:49 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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80% is fine if you dont think we'll see something like the great depression or the stagflation 64-75 period ever strike again.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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07-07-2007, 02:38 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
80% is fine if you dont think we'll see something like the great depression or the stagflation 64-75 period ever strike again.
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Plus, FIRECalc is only a basic projection... 80% can turn to 100% if one does common sense adjustments (like reduce spending) if prolonged problems occur. The key to this is whether or not one has a bare-bones retirement income planned or plenty of discretionary spending allocated. Discretionary spending can be a buffer that allows for adjustments without putting one in a bad way (i.e., compromising your basic day-to-day needs)
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07-07-2007, 07:45 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chinaco
Plus, FIRECalc is only a basic projection... 80% can turn to 100% if one does common sense adjustments (like reduce spending) if prolonged problems occur. The key to this is whether or not one has a bare-bones retirement income planned or plenty of discretionary spending allocated. Discretionary spending can be a buffer that allows for adjustments without putting one in a bad way (i.e., compromising your basic day-to-day needs)
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Yep. Me too. My spending varied widely the last 13 years. Right now 100% FireCalc but I'm switching to 5% of portfolio(variable) because I think the variation can be managed.
We'll see.
heh heh heh
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07-07-2007, 10:17 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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a 100% success rate pays 100% of my budget for the lifestyle i had while working plus an additional 12.5% for travel i didn't do while working. two years into it & i've yet to spend all of that additional 12.5%.
a 90% success rate brings travel up to about 25% of current budget.
changing lifestyle into a vagabond's life of travel mostly, at least early-on, to developing countries? priceless & percentage worry free.
i'm voting 90% which should produce a more than adequate budget for the next few years of domestic living/travel but then 110% in about 3 to 5 years when i expect to start travel overseas, even if firecalc says that only lets me withdraw $0.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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07-07-2007, 10:52 AM
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#14
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat
My SWR is 3.4%. Where did I read that anything over 80% is sufficient (suggestion being that there is an ~20% chance of total meltdown ie Germany in 30's UK in 40's, Japan in 90's)
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That would be the "Calculator From Hell" reference in the post immediately prior to yours...
Here, maybe it's been too long since I linked these. A couple of them summarize earlier articles but the context is better when they're read sequentially:
The Retirement Calculator From Hell - Part I
The Retirement Calculator From Hell - Part II
The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III, including the quote "Thus, any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."
Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part IV
The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part V
__________________
*
Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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07-07-2007, 11:50 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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Thanks Nords. I knew I'd read the article in the past so I didn't follow the link.
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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07-07-2007, 12:33 PM
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#16
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Administrator
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,124
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FIREcalc shows 100% for me but I'm waiting a couple of years to RE with Health Bennies. However, seeing that 100% figure helps the days at work go by easier.
The Megacorp I work for is changing hands again soon with another merger so there is a lot of concern again around the coffee pot, and the pub on a Friday afternoon. Most folks in their 50's and even 60's are simply nowhere near ready to RE and are amazed that I plan to RE at 55 and have been preparing and planning for this in some detail this last few years.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
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07-10-2007, 07:55 AM
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#17
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Boston
Posts: 620
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Thanks for the link to those articles, Nords. I recall reading something like that a few years back but I had forgotten the details.
It's interesting that such a high percentage of folks who responded to the poll implemented or are planning to implement a theoretical 100% success rate plan (and yeah, I know it's just theoretical). I wonder how much of that is due to specific targeting using one of these calculators versus just saving/investing and then finding out down the road that you've got more than you need for a theoretical 100% success rate.
My plans may change in the future, but I figure anything over 90% works for me, with some cushion built into the annual income, of course.
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07-10-2007, 09:10 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
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It's too bad FIRECalc does not report success rate greater than 100%. But if it did, there would be people shooting for that too.
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07-10-2007, 09:51 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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It sort of does...if you're at 100% you can have it look for a higher withdrawal rate to suit the overage.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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07-10-2007, 09:55 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
It sort of does...if you're at 100% you can have it look for a higher withdrawal rate to suit the overage.
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You mean "lower" withdrawal rate? Something like: I got 100% success rate at 4%, 3.5%, 2%, and also 1%, right?
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