kyounge1956
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 11, 2008
- Messages
- 2,171
Current age: going on 53
Inflation: all projections so far use 3.5%
No debt except mortgage.
Tax Deferred portfolio: currently about $65K, making maximum annual contribution + over-50 catchup
Roth IRA: about $20K, making maximum annual contribution + over-50 catchup
Pension: defined benefit. At age 57, $41445.48/year, at age 59 $47595/year. Guaranteed to maintain at least 65% of original purchasing power (For FIRECalc I used half the amount with COLA and half without to approximate the guarantee.)
Social Security: $1881/month at full retirement age (66 + 4 months)
Assumptions:
At retirement, sell house and add $100K of proceeds to nest egg.
Use the rest of the money to buy land and build a house. Live on pension and savings only for three years during house construction.
Work part time, earning at least $5000/year, from retirement +3 years until age 70.
I might well live to be 100.
Stay in Washington State
Expenses: bare minimum, $37480, (2008 dollars, before taxes)
the models I ran with Flexible Retirement Planner (online Monte Carlo simulation) say, >90% successful outcomes with $180K saved when I retire from my current job, with pension, part time income, and savings only. If I devote 1/4 of projected Social Security income to meeting bare minimum, I only need $67500 in savings (which I will certainly have unless the market tanks to such an extent that I lose every nickel I contribute for the next four years ) for a similar success rate, and still have some cushion left. FIRECalc says, with the same inputs (including the 1/4 of Social Security), 100% of the relevant time periods succeed. This sounds OK, but based on some other scenarios I ran, if I retire at age 57, I could get torpedoed by some sort of economic double whammy, for example a big market drop and inflation spike both at the same time. I'm definitely too timid to go before that?
I ran similar scenarios for age 59, and that survived everything I could think of to throw at it, the double whammy, couldn't find even a lousy $5k a year job, etc.
So on the one side there is the Monte Carlo model saying there's a slight chance that some economic "perfect storm" might wipe out my savings, but FIRECalc says they would have survived anything that actually has happened to the economy in the last hundred years or so. How did you decide when it was REALLY safe to retire? How do you decide if it's worth an extra 2 years of work to be "bombproof"? Or did you agree with the "Retirement Calculator From Hell" author's contention that anything over 80% is just gilding the lily anyway?
Inflation: all projections so far use 3.5%
No debt except mortgage.
Tax Deferred portfolio: currently about $65K, making maximum annual contribution + over-50 catchup
Roth IRA: about $20K, making maximum annual contribution + over-50 catchup
Pension: defined benefit. At age 57, $41445.48/year, at age 59 $47595/year. Guaranteed to maintain at least 65% of original purchasing power (For FIRECalc I used half the amount with COLA and half without to approximate the guarantee.)
Social Security: $1881/month at full retirement age (66 + 4 months)
Assumptions:
At retirement, sell house and add $100K of proceeds to nest egg.
Use the rest of the money to buy land and build a house. Live on pension and savings only for three years during house construction.
Work part time, earning at least $5000/year, from retirement +3 years until age 70.
I might well live to be 100.
Stay in Washington State
Expenses: bare minimum, $37480, (2008 dollars, before taxes)
the models I ran with Flexible Retirement Planner (online Monte Carlo simulation) say, >90% successful outcomes with $180K saved when I retire from my current job, with pension, part time income, and savings only. If I devote 1/4 of projected Social Security income to meeting bare minimum, I only need $67500 in savings (which I will certainly have unless the market tanks to such an extent that I lose every nickel I contribute for the next four years ) for a similar success rate, and still have some cushion left. FIRECalc says, with the same inputs (including the 1/4 of Social Security), 100% of the relevant time periods succeed. This sounds OK, but based on some other scenarios I ran, if I retire at age 57, I could get torpedoed by some sort of economic double whammy, for example a big market drop and inflation spike both at the same time. I'm definitely too timid to go before that?
I ran similar scenarios for age 59, and that survived everything I could think of to throw at it, the double whammy, couldn't find even a lousy $5k a year job, etc.
So on the one side there is the Monte Carlo model saying there's a slight chance that some economic "perfect storm" might wipe out my savings, but FIRECalc says they would have survived anything that actually has happened to the economy in the last hundred years or so. How did you decide when it was REALLY safe to retire? How do you decide if it's worth an extra 2 years of work to be "bombproof"? Or did you agree with the "Retirement Calculator From Hell" author's contention that anything over 80% is just gilding the lily anyway?