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11-09-2012, 07:40 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,327
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When to buy
I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?
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Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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11-09-2012, 07:44 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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A bit too early yet, I think.
I only feel ashamed to be a market timer when I lose money.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-09-2012, 07:47 AM
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#3
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,708
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Of course, if the current equity market weakness around the world is a reflection of slowing sales and weakening earnings also around the world, a resolution of the fiscal cliff issue may not stop markets from declining, in the US or elsewhere.
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11-09-2012, 07:52 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.
They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-09-2012, 07:54 AM
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#5
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,708
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.
They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!
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You should protest by not going...
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11-09-2012, 09:34 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?
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Looking at my little chart here: http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...hat-63224.html
... it's a no brainer. All you have to know is if you are going to parallel the pink, red, or green curves. Then you dump it in. Simple.
P.S. I'm rooting for a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward.
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11-09-2012, 10:03 AM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Upstate
Posts: 699
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I'm rooting for a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward.
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If I could get a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward, I would be SOOO happy.
__________________
Yeah well, that's just, ya know, like, your opinion, man. ~ The Dude
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11-09-2012, 10:07 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
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I like to start adding when the market is 20% down. Then if it goes another 30% down I don't feel too bad, and can invest some more. Not time yet for me.
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11-09-2012, 10:39 AM
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#9
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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I have been buying a couple of high quality -though cyclical- stocks that are near their 52-week lows.
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11-09-2012, 10:41 AM
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#10
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?
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Good idea! I DCA'd on the way down during the crash of 2008, and that worked out very well for me. I wasn't so much market timing, as having cash that needed to be invested for the long term. People will tell you that DVA'ing is better than DCA'ing, and probably it is, I suppose, but DCA'ing must be a reasonably good second choice because it worked out spectacularly for me.
At any rate, being a bit of an optimist I would never have thought the market could have tanked to such an extreme extent in 2008. So, had I chosen a date it probably would have been much too early.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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11-09-2012, 11:05 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I wish. It was too late. Tickets were paid in full, and the charge appeared nearly instantaneously when I checked my online AmEx account. They wasted no time, these dirty people.
I also bought tickets too early in another aspect. Another day, and I could have befriended a mod to have the charge put on redduck's card. Talk about bad timing. Sigh...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-09-2012, 04:04 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?
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I'm following LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter. It has been quite uncanny in the accuracy of recommended moves.
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11-10-2012, 07:05 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 996
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.
They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!
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But there were only "2 seats left at this price". Just means they will change the price and doesn't necessarily mean they won't lower the price.
But I agree, they are dirty rats!
__________________
Wherever you go, there you are.
(In other words, no whining!)
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11-10-2012, 08:34 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BTravlin
But there were only "2 seats left at this price". Just means they will change the price and doesn't necessarily mean they won't lower the price.
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Yes, they were telling the truth when they meant that there were 2 seats left at that price. What they did not reveal was that there would be more even at a lower price. Well, it's salesmanship. Same as in politics, they may tell the truth, but are under no obligation to tell the whole truth.
Actually, I was only disappointed because I was so proud that I snatched such a good deal. It still is, because when I changed the flight date by a day or two, the price went quite a bit higher. Supply and demand, I guess.
In the grand scheme of things, the $200 extra that I could have saved meant only 2 mediocre meals for us when we get there. Food in Hawaii is expensive!
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-11-2012, 06:03 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyro
If I could get a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward, I would be SOOO happy.
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If I could get 7% pa after inflation I would be seriously #%*^€$~ that I didn't retire a few years earlier.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
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11-11-2012, 07:05 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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I'm reasonably content with my current allocation, and if stocks sink below their re-balance bands, I'll buy.
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Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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11-11-2012, 02:33 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: irradiated - too close to the nuclear furnace
Posts: 1,294
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.
They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!
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OUCH! I was po'ed cuz I bought 100 gallons of heating oil after waiting over many months. I swear I had fumes in the tank and I just couldn't wait any longer just to see the price drop 30+ cents a gallon, yours is a lot worse.
The drop has been about 5%, too early for me. If it drops to 10% I'll put some money to work, at 40/60 I'd like to get to 50/50, otherwise I'm staying put.
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11-11-2012, 02:46 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,985
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__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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11-11-2012, 07:57 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veremchuka
OUCH! I was po'ed cuz I bought 100 gallons of heating oil after waiting over many months. I swear I had fumes in the tank and I just couldn't wait any longer just to see the price drop 30+ cents a gallon, yours is a lot worse.
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"Take a little chance
It don't mean nothing
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose
And don't you know that life is just a game
That you play, win or lose, it's all the same"
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-11-2012, 09:18 PM
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#20
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,500
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I feel like I am market timing every time I buy gas.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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