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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-24-2007, 10:16 PM   #101
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Tell me:
1) exactly how old you are.
2) exactly when you are going to die.
3) exactly how much money you have and in what investments.
4) exactly how much you are going to spend and when.
5) exactly how much ss benefit you are entitled to.
6) all of the above for your wife.
then assume that all tax laws and ss benefit laws remain constant and I can compute when you should start taking benefits if your goal is to maximize how much you want to get from the governemtent.

Since you don't know at least some of the above, then you have to guess and could be very wrong. If the tax laws or ss laws change all bets are off. If your goal is to reduce longevity risk, the answer changes. . .

I think you can overthink and overanalyze this one. By the way, if you have a spouse that has earned benefits, the problem is significantly different. Since a surviving spouse can choose to get the benefits of the deceased spouse, married couples can use a strategy that combines early benefits from the lower wage earner, with higher longevity risk reductions (later start date) of the higher wage earner.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 12:10 AM   #102
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

CFB and all who agree with him seem to me to not be understanding CT's example so let me try a different one, Iíll use CFBís numbers.

The first thing I need to state is that CT example is looking at someone who is almost 62 yo making the decision to take SS at 62 or wait. So using CFBís numbers the decision is between taking $2290/mo ($27480/yr) now or delay to 70 when the number would be 76% larger ($48365/yr using the same year dollars). Now letís say this person needs the $48365/yr now for their retirement. If s/he takes SS at 62 s/he needs a portfolio to make up the difference of $20885/yr which by CT calculations would be 25 * $20885 = $522,125.

However if s/he retires at 62 but waits till 70 to start taking SS s/he can totally spend that $522,125 between now and age 70 because SS will cover his/her income needs at age 70. So how much can s/he spend per year between now and age 70? Try $522,125/8 = $65266/year! If we assume the $522,125 is invested in a tax deferred account that has a rate of return that just meets inflation, his/her yearly WD will even be inflation adjusted.

Now I think the point CT is making is that $65266 is much greater than $48365 and this fact has nothing to do with CTís personal financial picture, it is always true.

BTW CT if this is not your point please let me know.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 06:24 AM   #103
 
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdw_fire
Now I think the point CT is making is that $65266 is much greater than $48365 and this fact has nothing to do with CTís personal financial picture, it is always true.

BTW CT if this is not your point please let me know.
Thank you for taking the time to understand what I was saying. And Yes you understand my point.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 06:52 AM   #104
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdw_fire
Now I think the point CT is making is that $65266 is much greater than $48365 and this fact has nothing to do with CTís personal financial picture, it is always true.
That illustrates the idea well and it works well when you simplify to a SS only $48K income requirement. But increase the expense levels to higher tax brackets, mix in a substantial taxed portfolio coupled with a substantial tax advantaged portfolio, RMDs, tax on SS at various income levels, etc., etc. Now you are back to the need for a careful individual evaluation.

I agree that for CT's evaluation, break even, size of the end pot, etc., are irrelevant. He is simply trying to zero in on the largest SWR. Kinda the same discussion we had around immediate annuities.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 08:13 AM   #105
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

CT's thinking is what may make sense for some..I'll just add that should he die before his wife, she now has a much higher SS income than if he started at 62..This means that she doesn't have to draw as much from their portfolio or can draw the same amount and live a better lifestyle..Further, I believe strongly that SS is much more critical part of the equation now that real intermediate and long-term rates have settled down to more historical levels..You can thus, given the same risk tolerance, tweak your asset allocation to weigh heavier into stocks because your "fixed allocation" is taken up by higher SS.

When intermediate and longer term interest rates are generating 8-9% returns, SS shouldn't be valued as much (although inflation often accompanies higher interest rates and SS has the COLA). Recent research suggests that future intermediate and longer interest rates may stay at current levels due to globalization (foreigners buying our debt) and governments increased ability to temper inflation.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 10:28 AM   #106
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdw_fire

The first thing I need to state is that CT example is looking at someone who is almost 62 yo making the decision to take SS at 62 or wait. So using CFBís numbers the decision is between taking $2290/mo ($27480/yr) now or delay to 70 when the number would be 76% larger ($48365/yr using the same year dollars). Now letís say this person needs the $48365/yr now for their retirement. If s/he takes SS at 62 s/he needs a portfolio to make up the difference of $20885/yr which by CT calculations would be 25 * $20885 = $522,125.
This is reasonably relevant to me because I will be 62 in a couple years, I'm already retired, and I'm not so wealthy that I should brush off tens of thousands of dollars. So I'm trying to see if there really is a lot of difference between the options.

I think I follow the logic in this example (not 100% sure yet). However, I don't see why you would use the "25". I know that is the inverse of a SWR of 4%. But the real equivalent to SS is a COLA annuity. Vanguard sells life annuities at age 70 for multiples of 13.6 (male) or 15.3 (female).

So it seems that I need 15.3 x $20,885 = $319,541 instead of the $522,125 to "fill in the SS gap" if I start benefits at 62 instead of 70.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 11:07 AM   #107
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
This is reasonably relevant to me because I will be 62 in a couple years, I'm already retired, and I'm not so wealthy that I should brush off tens of thousands of dollars. So I'm trying to see if there really is a lot of difference between the options.

I think I follow the logic in this example (not 100% sure yet). However, I don't see why you would use the "25". I know that is the inverse of a SWR of 4%. But the real equivalent to SS is a COLA annuity. Vanguard sells life annuities at age 70 for multiples of 13.6 (male) or 15.3 (female).

So it seems that I need 15.3 x $20,885 = $319,541 instead of the $522,125 to "fill in the SS gap" if I start benefits at 62 instead of 70.
I think you need to get annuity at 62. What's multiples for this?
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 11:30 AM   #108
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
I think I follow the logic in this example (not 100% sure yet). However, I don't see why you would use the "25". I know that is the inverse of a SWR of 4%. But the real equivalent to SS is a COLA annuity.
The reason I didn't use an annuity in the example is simple, what I was trying to do was to show the people who were disagreeing with CT (and by there posts seemed not to understand his example) what CT was saying using an example different from his.

Note, if I brought up annuities it would change the whole texture of the discussion as some people (CFB included) here absolutely won't buy an annuity. (see http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...?topic=7503.15)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
Vanguard sells life annuities at age 70 for multiples of 13.6 (male) or 15.3 (female).
BTW in either case you would need to start the annuity at 62, not 70.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 11:37 AM   #109
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
This is reasonably relevant to me because I will be 62 in a couple years, I'm already retired, and I'm not so wealthy that I should brush off tens of thousands of dollars. So I'm trying to see if there really is a lot of difference between the options.

I think I follow the logic in this example (not 100% sure yet). However, I don't see why you would use the "25". I know that is the inverse of a SWR of 4%. But the real equivalent to SS is a COLA annuity. Vanguard sells life annuities at age 70 for multiples of 13.6 (male) or 15.3 (female).

So it seems that I need 15.3 x $20,885 = $319,541 instead of the $522,125 to "fill in the SS gap" if I start benefits at 62 instead of 70.
OK using your number for a 70 year old buying an annuity. He would have to save around $2380 a month or ($28560/yr)starting at age 62 through age 70 at 8% to have the $319k available to buy the annuity. Note that the $2380 a month is greater than the SS payment that he gets at 62. Also note that 8% (after tax) return is generous and propably not really achievable without taking on some risk. So the conclusion (again) is that taking SS at 70 is to your advantage.

And we haven't even penalized you for the tax hit from SS when you have "extra" income.

jdw_fire et al...

The annuity that needs to be bought is the one at 70. And the amount would be for the cashflow difference between SS at 70 and SS at 62.

What we are trying to compute is how much (extra) money someone taking SS at 62 needs to have at 70 to be able to generate the same cash flow as someone starting SS at 70. That amount of money is exactly represented by the cost of an annuity (for a 70 year old).

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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 11:43 AM   #110
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

For the record, I understood his example completely. As noted a few posts above, the "why use 25x" is the crux of the problem.

You wouldnt. Nor do you need a 25% return or any of the other poppycock.

Apparently disagreeing with a postulated idea is equivalent to not understanding it. I can see exactly what CT is proposing, and the way he's calculating it is invalid. Rich's example is a lot closer to a decent example.

And you are quite incorrect regarding your stated comments about my opinion of annuities. I would absolutely buy an annuity if there was a financial benefit to it. There isnt one for me, its a perceived safety benefit sold at a profit. For some people it may be a good idea. For an early retiree with a reasonable chunk of money, its nothing more than a diversification option...one of the last ones an early retiree with a lot of money needs to consider.

In fact, if one bothers to even read the link you proffered, my statements of opinion on the matter are pretty open minded, imo.

Now, there are some folks here who stamp "NO!" on anything annuity related, probably because the industry is composed of 90% thieves, vicious thugs and money grabbers who have totally ****ed them or a friend/family member with some badly formed annuity/insurance product that cost them a lot of money.

What all this stuff (social security, annuities, etc) comes down to is a bit of financial insurance. At one level you need it, and in great big gobs, no matter how much it costs. At another level, it pays you to take on a little risk and "self insure". I would imagine most ER's fall into the latter category. I would imagine there are many, many others that fall into the former. Some funny gray area in the middle where you might want to sort of self insure by taking the annuity gap route to delay taking the SS benefit, as rich described.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 11:58 AM   #111
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
jdw_fire et al...

The annuity that needs to be bought is the one at 70. And the amount would be for the cashflow difference between SS at 70 and SS at 62.

What we are trying to compute is how much (extra) money someone taking SS at 62 needs to have at 70 to be able to generate the same cash flow as someone starting SS at 70. That amount of money is exactly represented by the cost of an annuity (for a 70 year old).
No, in my example, you need the $48365/yr at 62 as well as at 70 (adjusted for CPI) so if you are going to use an annuity to make up the difference, you need to buy it at age 62 (i.e. whether you buy a COLAed life annuity that starts paying $20885/yr at 62 and take SS at 62 or delay SS to 70 and buy and eight year COLAed annuity at 62 that starts paying $48365/yr).
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 12:12 PM   #112
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

jdw:

One could, as you did, compute what the value of the SS payment stream starting at age 62 is worth as an annuity. One could then compare that value to the (greater) payment stream a 70 year old would receive starting in eight years as a delayed annuity. One could conclude then that whichever annuity was worth more would be the better value. This is apperently what you did. The problem that I had with this approach is that I haven't been able to get an online quote for a delayed annuity from a reasonable (feewise) seller like Vanguard.

Since delayed annuity quotes were not readily available, The approach which I used was to think about how much needed to be saved starting at 62 through 70 to be able to buy an annuity starting at 70 years old that would give the additional cashflow that a 70 year old would receive. Using poster Independent's numbers that (extra cashflow) annuity would cost $319k for a 70 year old to purchase. I then used a little calculator and assumed an interest rate (8%) to calculate that starting at 62 one would need to save around $28k per year to be able to buy the $319k annuity stating at 70.

By noting that the amount that the 62 year old neeeded to be saved was greater than the SS payment that a 62 year old received I conclude that it is to your (and mine) advantage to delay SS to 70.

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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 12:26 PM   #113
 
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Here is a simple question.

1.) 70 year old Person A has a Pension worth $13K with Cola per year.

2.) 70 year old Person B has no pension, but wants to withdraw $13K+ inflation per year.

How big a portfolio does Person B need to accomplish this so he could live to age 100 and not run out of money?
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 12:42 PM   #114
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by landover
I think you need to get annuity at 62. What's multiples for this?
I don't get your meaning. I assumed that the 62 year-old had assets enough to cover 100% his spending from 62 to 70. So option 1 is spend the assets for 8 years, then take the enhanced SS at 70. Option 2 is take the lower SS today, spend fewer assets over the next 8 years, use the saved assets (plus inv income) to buy an annuity at 70.

I don't see how an annuity at 62 comes into this.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 12:55 PM   #115
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

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Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
OK using your number for a 70 year old buying an annuity. He would have to save around $2380 a month or ($28560/yr)starting at age 62 through age 70 at 8% to have the $319k available to buy the annuity. Note that the $2380 a month is greater than the SS payment that he gets at 62. Also note that 8% (after tax) return is generous and propably not really achievable without taking on some risk. So the conclusion (again) is that taking SS at 70 is to your advantage.

And we haven't even penalized you for the tax hit from SS when you have "extra" income.

jdw_fire et al...

The annuity that needs to be bought is the one at 70. And the amount would be for the cashflow difference between SS at 70 and SS at 62.

What we are trying to compute is how much (extra) money someone taking SS at 62 needs to have at 70 to be able to generate the same cash flow as someone starting SS at 70. That amount of money is exactly represented by the cost of an annuity (for a 70 year old).
This makes sense to me.

I may have lost a number here, but I think your conclusion is that, even if we could earn 8%, the SS benefit available at age 62 (which I think was $27,480 per year), is less than the annual amount we would need ($28,560) to build a fund to buy the Vanguard annuity that would fill the gap at 70+.

That conclusion looks good, assuming I've got your meaning correct. Note that the replacing the "25" with the Vanguard purchase rate makes the SS-at-70 advantage pretty small. It's one or two thousand per year for 8 years.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 01:10 PM   #116
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Independent:

It also should be pointed out the delay SS is a risk-free approach. To get a real 8% return you'll will have to have some market exposure which increases risk.

So for example a lesser risk position at a 5% return over 8 years you'd have to save around $32500 a year which makes the argument for SS at 70 even stronger.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 01:15 PM   #117
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

My calculations show that if you invest the money at age 62 until you turn 70 in a 6% after tax return you will have 316,340 at age 70. If you then deduct the inflation adjusted return you would requre from the SS you would have received you will run out of money at age 81. The advantage is if you are a married couple if one dies before age 70 you will have social security money that otherwise would not be available to use. Figures assume 3% inflation
SS security @ 62 ROI YE Balance Forgone amount @ 70
62 27,480.00 824.40 28,304.40 20,885.00
63 28,304.40 3,396.53 60,005.33 21,511.55
64 29,153.53 5,349.53 94,508.39 22,156.90
65 30,028.14 7,472.19 132,008.72 22,821.60
66 30,928.98 9,776.26 172,713.97 23,506.25
67 31,856.85 12,274.25 216,845.07 24,211.44
68 32,812.56 14,979.46 264,637.08 24,937.78
69 33,796.93 17,906.04 316,340.06 25,685.92
70 34,810.84 21,069.05 310,952.62 26,456.49
71 35,855.17 20,808.47 304,510.90 27,250.19
72 36,930.82 20,486.50 288,066.58 28,067.69
73 38,038.75 19,566.32 269,594.15 28,909.72
74 39,179.91 18,526.44 248,940.68 29,777.02
75 40,355.31 17,357.76 225,943.14 30,670.33
76 41,565.97 16,050.55 200,427.72 31,590.44
77 42,812.94 14,594.44 172,209.21 32,538.15
78 44,097.33 12,978.39 141,090.27 33,514.29
79 45,420.25 11,190.63 106,860.65 34,519.72
80 46,782.86 9,218.61 69,296.40 35,555.31
81 48,186.35 7,048.96 28,159.02 36,621.97
82 49,631.94 4,667.46 (16,805.46) 37,720.63



Again if I could get 310,000 out early from Social Security I would take it as well as I would take a cash payout for a pension over a promise to pay over the years. If you were to need an annuity it would seem age 75 might be a good optimization year to take it.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 01:20 PM   #118
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
Vanguard sells life annuities at age 70 for multiples of 13.6 (male) or 15.3 (female).

So it seems that I need 15.3 x $20,885 = $319,541 instead of the $522,125 to "fill in the SS gap" if I start benefits at 62 instead of 70.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent
I don't get your meaning. I assumed that the 62 year-old had assets enough to cover 100% his spending from 62 to 70. So option 1 is spend the assets for 8 years, then take the enhanced SS at 70. Option 2 is take the lower SS today, spend fewer assets over the next 8 years, use the saved assets (plus inv income) to buy an annuity at 70.

I don't see how an annuity at 62 comes into this.
If I understand your option correctly you plan on buying a COLAed life annuity at age 70 paying $20885/yr to cover the difference between what you would get at 70 if you started SS at 70 and what you'd get at 70 if you started SS at 62. However you forgot to convert the $20885 to what its COLAed number would be at age 70 (remember I used the value of the dollar at age 62 in my example because the 4% SWR comes from using constant value dollars). Based again on CFB's SS numbers the $20885/yr in current year dollars would be $26106/yr in actual dollars by the time you buy the annuity at age 70. Thus the cost of your annuity just went up 25%.

However what is being done here defeats the point CT was making with his post and that is that he found a way to spend more money between the ages of 62 and 70 without increasing his risk (provided you believe SS is riskless).
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 01:29 PM   #119
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
jdw:

One could, as you did, compute what the value of the SS payment stream starting at age 62 is worth as an annuity. One could then compare that value to the (greater) payment stream a 70 year old would receive starting in eight years as a delayed annuity. One could conclude then that whichever annuity was worth more would be the better value. This is apperently what you did. The problem that I had with this approach is that I haven't been able to get an online quote for a delayed annuity from a reasonable (feewise) seller like Vanguard.
Actually this is not what I did, but it is gratifying to know that going your route provides a conclusion that is consistant with the conclusion from my example.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
By noting that the amount that the 62 year old neeeded to be saved was greater than the SS payment that a 62 year old received I conclude that it is to your (and mine) advantage to delay SS to 70.
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security
Old 01-25-2007, 01:31 PM   #120
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Re: Delay Pension and/or Social Security

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Here is a simple question.

1.) 70 year old Person A has a Pension worth $13K with Cola per year.

2.) 70 year old Person B has no pension, but wants to withdraw $13K+ inflation per year.

How big a portfolio does Person B need to accomplish this so he could live to age 100 and not run out of money?
With my investment skills, Person B would need $5,750,500.00, and be willing to Reverse Mortgage his property.

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