Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 10-15-2014, 07:13 PM   #41
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Same thing that always happens. Se fue.
I am still 100% equities. I added some SCHD

Maybe it will drop another 20%-30%....It would not change my allocation in any way.
__________________

__________________
eta2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-15-2014, 11:37 PM   #42
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
I fired my musket yesterday. The 10% cash position is now more like 5% and I decided to purchase some 3x leveraged long ENERGY ETF. ERX

Risky, perhaps, but i felt the energy pullback is bordering on overdone. Shale gas is great, but I still need West Texas Intermediate or Brent North Sea crude, then refined to fill the car every time I go to the gas station...

I also added to SPY, VTI, and VXUS core holding (VXUS being on most on-sale)...

The remaining 5% will go in IF we see a further 5% drop.
__________________

__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2014, 11:42 PM   #43
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
Going on / For the record -- I Ialso think this is not "abnormal" market but rather a very very predictable and classic 10%-15% October induced market "correction" that has been long LONG overdue. I would be surprised to see 20% down and a bear market emerge at this point in our economic cycle. The US economy is growing. If it stops, the fed will do QE4.... Ebola is scary but more people die in USA of the flu every day than Ebola and it will remain that way through this crisis too. Crisis = panic + opportunity. Turn off CNBC .... talking heads are just that...
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 05:49 AM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBQ-Nut View Post
So with all the posts about shifting assets and 'bargain buying'...what happened to the FIRE mantra of stay the course
In my case, I am about 50/50 allocation and want to move to 85/15. But I'll only do that when there are bargains to be had.

If none arrive, I am happy with that.

So I am staying the course (not selling, buying on crash). I just have a different course than you maybe
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 08:27 AM   #45
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 20
I made a strategic decision recently to increase my equities. I'm going from a super conservative less than 50% equities (I'm in my late forties) to a model where I keep 6 years of living expenses in cash and bonds and the balance in equities, replenishing the cash reserve whenever I don't have to take a loss to do so and using it to ride out downturns.

So I'm looking to buy. For 6 yeas to be the right cash reserve I need to dollar cost average my way in over 3-5 years (to avoid accidentally buying at a 10 year peak). That's plan A, but I'm being a little more aggressive by looking for buying opportunities.

All that said, this sort of looks like one. I put 1/3 of what I ultimately plan to shift to equities in as of yesterday to start the process. Might have been a little too much, but there really doesn't seem to be a dotcom bust or mortgage crisis looming and I do clearly recall concerns about those things being on the radar for a year+ before either of the last two crashes.

I think it would take something more like a 20% additional drop to get me to go all the way in one lump...
__________________
GregfromTexas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 10:08 AM   #46
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
redduck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: yonder
Posts: 2,053
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
Going on / For the record -- I Ialso think this is not "abnormal" market but rather a very very predictable and classic 10%-15% October induced market "correction" that has been long LONG overdue. I would be surprised to see 20% down and a bear market emerge at this point in our economic cycle. The US economy is growing. If it stops, the fed will do QE4.... Ebola is scary but more people die in USA of the flu every day than Ebola and it will remain that way through this crisis too. Crisis = panic + opportunity. Turn off CNBC .... talking heads are just that...
Yeah, those talking heads...
__________________
Carpe cōleī
redduck is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 11:59 AM   #47
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 732
I think today is a key day for the US market. If it ends down today, even with the semi-positive data that came in, I think we are in for a bigger drop tomorrow, especially near the close (emotion-based selling, mainly). Lots of folks are going to want to get out of this market before the weekend, if we don't get at least a small gain today. Just my opinion, I may be all wrong....
__________________
RAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 04:09 PM   #48
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 109
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
Going on / For the record -- I Ialso think this is not "abnormal" market but rather a very very predictable and classic 10%-15% October induced market "correction" that has been long LONG overdue. I would be surprised to see 20% down and a bear market emerge at this point in our economic cycle. The US economy is growing. If it stops, the fed will do QE4.... Ebola is scary but more people die in USA of the flu every day than Ebola and it will remain that way through this crisis too. Crisis = panic + opportunity. Turn off CNBC .... talking heads are just that...
I agree this is just the October willies. Will it be 10 or 15? That is the question. My trigger finger is gettin' itchy.
__________________
Gazingus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-16-2014, 04:38 PM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,403
I just check with Quicken, and it says that my non-equity allocation is good enough for 8 years of living expenses. So, I should survive a famine period of biblical length (7 years).

But if the market crashes hard, will see if I have the strength to buy "cheap" stocks with that cash that is meant to live on. No pain, no gain. But this is not a crash, just a run-of-the-mill correction so far.

PS. And I will be eligible for SS before my cash AA runs out. So, would draw SS early and use it to buy stocks too. Heh heh heh... Me, worry?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-18-2014, 08:10 PM   #50
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 367
I have a chunk that I've been waiting to do something with. I told myself that I would wait till the end of the year and see if penfed had a 3+% CD deal, if so, I would go for that. If the market has a REAL pullback (ie, 20% or more) I will buy some equities. If neither of these events occur, I will either pay off my house (3%) or buy a muni bond fund. I was considering long term tax free muni, but depending on where interest rates are, I might stick with the intermediate fund.
Come on PenFed!
__________________
When you walk in the shadow of insanity, the presence of another mind that thinks and acts as yours does is something close to a blessed event. -Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
panhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2014, 08:39 AM   #51
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 353
There is a certain "good" feeling you get from paying your home off.
That's what I would do / did yrs ago. The experts & tax folks will tell you otherwise. But for me it works. Mentally if nothing else.

I too am looking at bond funds. The only question I have is:
For the past 30 years we have been in a declining interest rate environment. And bonds have done well.

Say the next 30 years is an interest rising environment. What should that do to bond fund investments? Its got me spooked.

Hopefully someone here can shed some light on this.
__________________
almost there is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2014, 01:58 PM   #52
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
Say the next 30 years is an interest rising environment. What should that do to bond fund investments? Its got me spooked.

Hopefully someone here can shed some light on this.
It's pretty simple: with rising interest rates bonds get hammered.

How much?

As a good rule: Multiply the time left (duration) on your bond with the interest rate change. That's how much that bond will change in value. e.g. interest rate of 1% becomes 4% on a 30-year bond. As a result a 100$ bond of that type will be valued at 100$ - (4-1)x30 = 10$.

In other words, practically worthless. That's why some people call bonds "return-free risk" right now.
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2014, 05:47 PM   #53
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 367
yeah, the historically low interest rates is why i've been keeping everything intermediate term. The long term muni fund shows a duration of around 7 years, but there have been discussions that this might not realistically reflect the risk of the fund due to callable bonds and the like. A penfed CD at about 3% would be a wash for my mortgage rate, maintain liquidity, and be very safe so this is my first choice. If they don't offer a nice rate at end of year, I'm going to have a decision to make as I don't want to let a decent (about 10%) of my invested capital making next to nothing for much longer.
__________________

__________________
When you walk in the shadow of insanity, the presence of another mind that thinks and acts as yours does is something close to a blessed event. -Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
panhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Keeping Powder Dry ripper1 FIRE and Money 32 12-31-2012 04:59 PM
Dry powder...when is the time? RockOn FIRE and Money 52 03-20-2008 01:14 PM
HI from Powder Springs GA destiny1 Hi, I am... 17 12-31-2006 09:14 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:44 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.