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Old 12-31-2013, 09:13 AM   #21
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I think that once you've had five straight years of positive returns and the market is at all-time highs, I think the concept of being in a secular bear market has to be met with raised eyebrows.
Only if it recovers the previous inflation-adjusted all time high AND there is not another sell-off to take you back below it.

We finally met the first test just a few months ago. But, we could still easily have a correction to take us below that level in the near future, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...2000-Highs.php
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:15 AM   #22
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Yet another blow to the "new normal" espoused by all the pundints a few years ago
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:19 AM   #23
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Yet another blow to the "new normal" espoused by all the pundints a few years ago
Well, in the "new normal" they were talking about high unemployment and low growth. They weren't wrong about that part. They were talking about the economy, not about the stock market .
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:29 PM   #24
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Only if it recovers the previous inflation-adjusted all time high AND there is not another sell-off to take you back below it. We finally met the first test just a few months ago. But, we could still easily have a correction to take us below that level in the near future, so we aren't out of the woods yet. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...2000-Highs.php
These charts make a strong case for purchasing TIPS. Especially for basic needs.
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When was the last time the S&P500 grew over 30% in one year?
Old 12-31-2013, 12:34 PM   #25
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When was the last time the S&P500 grew over 30% in one year?

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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post

We finally met the first test just a few months ago. But, we could still easily have a correction to take us below that level in the near future, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...2000-Highs.php

When were we ever certain we were out of the woods? :-)
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:38 PM   #26
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When were we ever certain we were out of the woods?
By looking back in history. Once you are, say 50% above a prior inflation adjusted peak, you can be pretty sure that even another bear market won't break the old high.
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:43 PM   #27
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That seems a little silly. So if the stock market shot up 1000% tomorrow, and then dropped 80% back to only twice what it is today, would we be in a new secular bear market until the price was back above the all-time high?

It seems like we could just as easily say we are in a really, really, long-term secular bull market because we are way above the highs set in 1929.


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Only if it recovers the previous inflation-adjusted all time high AND there is not another sell-off to take you back below it.

We finally met the first test just a few months ago. But, we could still easily have a correction to take us below that level in the near future, so we aren't out of the woods yet.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
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Old 12-31-2013, 12:52 PM   #28
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By looking back in history. Once you are, say 50% above a prior inflation adjusted peak, you can be pretty sure that even another bear market won't break the old high.

I'll take your word for it. :-)
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Old 12-31-2013, 01:00 PM   #29
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Well, in the "new normal" they were talking about high unemployment and low growth. They weren't wrong about that part. They were talking about the economy, not about the stock market .
Yes, but the pundits (eg Bill Gross, etc) back in 2009 translated that slow growth into much lower market returns going forward. At least he was right about the bond market.
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Old 12-31-2013, 01:05 PM   #30
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That seems a little silly. So if the stock market shot up 1000% tomorrow, and then dropped 80% back to only twice what it is today, would we be in a new secular bear market until the price was back above the all-time high?

It seems like we could just as easily say we are in a really, really, long-term secular bull market because we are way above the highs set in 1929.
We're just talking about historical patterns, that there are long periods where the S&P500 gains faster than inflation and P/E expands, and other periods where it stalls and P/E shrinks.

The scenario you describe above hasn't happened yet.
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Old 12-31-2013, 03:47 PM   #31
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S&P 500 close~

12/31/2012~ 1426.19

12/31/2013~ 1848.36

Best year since 1997.
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Old 12-31-2013, 04:06 PM   #32
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I will, I will!!! But if you listen very closely, you might be able to sense, if not hear, a very secret, totally silent "Wheee!!!" echoing throughout the land for the next 19 hours or so, in anticipation....

OK, W2R, NOW you can let it rip!

Happy New Year!
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Old 12-31-2013, 04:09 PM   #33
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OK, W2R, NOW you can let it rip!

Happy New Year!
Now? Now? NOW?

~~~~~ WHEEE!!!! ~~~~~ Dow 16577!!!

Happy New Year!

Things are looking GOOD and just in time for the end of the year computations.
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Old 12-31-2013, 06:51 PM   #34
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Looks like the S&P500 Total Return for 2013 is going to be:

32.39%!!!

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Old 12-31-2013, 07:17 PM   #35
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Because of bonds I only captured around 19% to 20% in 2013

Stupid bonds.
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Old 12-31-2013, 07:19 PM   #36
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Because of bonds I only captured around 19% to 20% in 2013

Stupid bonds.
Most people did well less than 20% because they were positioned around 50/50 stocks/bonds. That's not a bad thing.
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Old 12-31-2013, 07:26 PM   #37
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Most people did well less than 20% because they were positioned around 50/50 stocks/bonds. That's not a bad thing.
Agreed, but having a few hundred thousand in your 401K that returned a negative 0.8% for the year makes you feel like a sucker. Someone got to use my $200,000 a whole year and charged me 0.8% to do it!
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:49 PM   #38
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~~~~~ WHEEE!!!! ~~~~~
Now we're really screwed.
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Old 12-31-2013, 09:51 PM   #39
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Now we're really screwed.
Yep. That will surely send 2014 into the septic tank.
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Old 12-31-2013, 10:00 PM   #40
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Yep. That will surely send 2014 into the septic tank.
At least it didn't crush the 2013 results!

Besides, it's time to rebalance!
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