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When was the last time the S&P500 grew over 30% in one year?
Old 12-30-2013, 08:14 PM   #1
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When was the last time the S&P500 grew over 30% in one year?

The last time the S&P500 had a 30%+ gain was 1997! It gained 33.4% (including dividends, I expect). Historical Stock Market Returns – Stock Market Returns Since 1973

Are you surprised that it's been 16 years?

The S&P500 is up 29.1% YTD - but I don't think that includes the 1.87% dividend yield, so (knock on wood), it should cross 30% unless we have that asteroid hit tomorrow [or massive profit taking].

M* is showing 31.8% YTD for VFIAX - the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Admiral Shares. This includes dividends.

OK - we have one more day left!

W2R - hold on to that thought 'til after market close tomorrow.

Audrey
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:27 PM   #2
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I think VFIAX is up 29.07% against the S&P which is up 29.12% (the difference being the .05 expense ratio)... not to pick at your numbers. I'd take anything in that range any day (or year, as it were).
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:29 PM   #3
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Simply amazing and thank the Fed too !
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:42 PM   #4
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I think VFIAX is up 29.07% against the S&P which is up 29.12% (the difference being the .05 expense ratio)... not to pick at your numbers. I'd take anything in that range any day (or year, as it were).
Your numbers don't include the dividends. According to M*, VFIAX is up 31.8% YTD which includes the distributions/total return, -0.05% behind the S&P500. VFIAX Vanguard 500 Index Admiral Fund VFIAX Quote Price News
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:53 PM   #5
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But seeing how many years in the 1980-2000 decades having 30%+ returns really brings tears to my eyes. Look at that 37.4% return of 1995! I was working so hard moonlighting with a start-up while maintaining megacorp daytime job during that time that I never had time to look at the market.
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:54 PM   #6
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But seeing how many years in the 1980-2000 decades having 30%+ returns really brings tears to my eyes. Look at that 37.4% return of 1995! I was working so hard moonlighting with a start-up that I never had time to look at the market.
Interest rates and inflation were a bit higher then too.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:00 PM   #7
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W2R - hold on to that thought 'til after market close tomorrow.
I will, I will!!! But if you listen very closely, you might be able to sense, if not hear, a very secret, totally silent "Wheee!!!" echoing throughout the land for the next 19 hours or so, in anticipation....

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Old 12-30-2013, 09:10 PM   #8
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Interest rates and inflation were a bit higher then too.
But that 1% or 2% higher inflation is minuscule compared to the stock return. Bonds were doing well too.

I have shown the data in the OP's site alongside annual inflation data from another site.

One could not lose in that environment. Was it another "gilded age"? But looking at this table, one does not just weep, but wants to bawl out loud.

YearS&P ReturnInflation
198032.4%13.5%
1981-4.9%10.3%
198221.4%6.2%
198322.5%3.2%
19846.3%4.3%
198532.2%3.6%
198618.5%1.9%
19875.2%3.6%
198816.8%4.1%
198931.5%4.8%
1990-3.2%5.4%
199130.5%4.2%
19927.7%3.0%
199310.0%3.0%
19941.3%2.6%
199537.4%2.8%
199623.1%3.0%
199733.4%2.3%
199828.6%1.6%
199921.0%2.2%
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:10 PM   #9
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Well your avatar is certainly ready!
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:12 PM   #10
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I will, I will!!! But if you listen very closely, you might be able to sense, if not hear, a very secret, totally silent "Wheee!!!" echoing throughout the land for the next 19 hours or so, in anticipation....



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Old 12-30-2013, 09:12 PM   #11
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But that 1% or 2% higher inflation is minuscule compared to the stock return. Bonds were doing well too.

I have shown the data in the OP's site alongside annual inflation data from another site.

One could not lose in that environment. Was it another "gilded age"? But looking at this table, one does not just weep, but wants to bawl out loud.

YearS&P ReturnInflation
198032.4%13.5%
1981-4.9%10.3%
198221.4%6.2%
198322.5%3.2%
19846.3%4.3%
198532.2%3.6%
198618.5%1.9%
19875.2%3.6%
198816.8%4.1%
198931.5%4.8%
1990-3.2%5.4%
199130.5%4.2%
19927.7%3.0%
199310.0%3.0%
19941.3%2.6%
199537.4%2.8%
199623.1%3.0%
199733.4%2.3%
199828.6%1.6%
199921.0%2.2%
That's why the period from 1980-2000 was called a "secular bull"
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:16 PM   #12
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... and is this current one another cyclical bull, or are we entering a 3rd gilded age? Or is it the 4th?
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:21 PM   #13
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... and is this current one another cyclical bull, or are we entering a 3rd gilded age?
No, the last secular bear period included some 30+ gain years, but usually after a bad sell off year.

The current secular bear is not due to end until 2017/2018 or so. But maybe we'll be surprised this time.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:24 PM   #14
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What is the significance of 2017/2018? Please elucidate.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:30 PM   #15
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What is the significance of 2017/2018? Please elucidate.
Not to worry. The big event isn't scheduled until 2032.
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Old 12-30-2013, 09:35 PM   #16
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What is the significance of 2017/2018? Please elucidate.
The cycles usually last 17/18 years or thereabouts.

1966-1982 bear
1982-2000 bull
2000-? bear

Secular Bull and Bear Markets

More: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/...ary-commentary
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Old 12-30-2013, 10:20 PM   #17
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The cycles usually last 17/18 years or thereabouts.

1966-1982 bear
1982-2000 bull
2000-? bear

Secular Bull and Bear Markets

More: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/...ary-commentary
Thanks.

Knowing this, I shall continue to attempt to buy low/sell high, er, rebalance until the next secular bull market, when I then go 100% equity and into hold mode. What comes after that bull market is not of much concern, as I may not last that long.

But, what is this?

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Not to worry. The big event isn't scheduled until 2032.
OK. That is still fine as it is still enough time to allow me 19 years to build my stash so I can see that 8th digit flip from 0 to a 1 before I croak. Lemme see what annualized return that will take...
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Old 12-30-2013, 10:35 PM   #18
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In 2008 we know how -36% feels like. This is the opposite. Much preferred.
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Old 12-31-2013, 07:49 AM   #19
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The cycles usually last 17/18 years or thereabouts.

1966-1982 bear
1982-2000 bull
2000-? bear

Secular Bull and Bear Markets

More: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/...ary-commentary
That Fidelity article is really good. It was written in Jan 2013, and we really need an update after such an impressive 2013! It says secular bear markets last 14.5 years on average, so maybe we are closer to the end on this one.

However, typically there are 3 bear market sell offs during these periods which means we might have one more to go through before finally getting out of this period. It doesn't have to be as bad as the last one though! But I tend to believe we'll have at least one more severe correction or something in the next couple of years 'cause, well, it's overdue!

We had a very mild correction in 2011 - some wouldn't even call it that as it didn't reach the 10% sell off rule - but other than that it's been a huge run since early 2009!
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Old 12-31-2013, 08:52 AM   #20
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I think that once you've had five straight years of positive returns and the market is at all-time highs, I think the concept of being in a secular bear market has to be met with raised eyebrows.
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