When will home prices rise again?

[Moemg]

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhoDaresWins think I am going to go ahead with plans to put in California closet systems, maybe trick out the garage with Gladiator storage, too. Make the place more sellable. I need to quit watching so much HGTV!

I watch so much HGTV that I already know how I'll stage the house when I sell .
Remove half the furniture
Clean closets and remove half of clothes
Hide all personal items
Float candles in the pool
Bake cookies
Set the table
Hide every small appliance in the kitchen No Coffee for you or toast
Buy all new neutral linens


Do I have it done pat or what ? Thanks HGTV !

[youbet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Another reason for home prices to rise is because supply has been drastically cut. New houses built drastically down. Audrey

Good point Audrey. Still, I'd much rather see housing prices rise because demand increases due to a generally improving economy than because the housing supply shrinks.

Example: A new strain of termite destroys half of the current USA housing supply causing the price of the remaining stock to increase. Do we have more wealth? Well, no. We have our current wealth minus half the value of the current housing supply.

If an improved general economy allows citizens to bid up the price of housing, that's good. More wealth chasing the current housing supply is pushing prices up. And supply will soon be stimulated to increase.

[Delawaredave5]

Are you sure about median price/income data ? I find it hard to believe that house prices went from 1x to 5x income. Link below suggests it was much more consistent.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...cLctk2LUdn-jRQ

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndependentlyPoor Full disclosure: I am renting now so this is biased by my self-interest, nevertheless... Do we really want to return to an era in which the average family can't afford to buy any (let alone the average) house? Unless you already own a home, why would you think that unaffordable housing is a reasonable goal for public policy? Below is a graph of the ratio of the median house price to median income from 1969 through 2008.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 IMO talking about getting back to "peak" prices is just noise and has no relevance to the economic recovery. It doesn't really matter how long that takes. What does matter is a) when does it stop getting worse (and it has stopped) and b) when does it start improving - and signs are also that it has. So that will help the rest of the economy going forward, not hurt it. Audrey

Put me in Audrey's camp.

1. If you're a first time homeowner, depressed prices are a good thing.
2. If you own a home and want to sell and buy another, it's neutral. While you will get less than peak for the home you sell, you'll also pay less than peak for the one you buy.
3. If you a lot of your net worth wrapped up in an inflated home value, you're probably worried about this data. If you sell you will have less net worth than you'd hoped, but if you buy something (presumably downsizing) it will be cheaper than it would have otherwise been.

I have always owned less house than the bank says I can afford and I don't count my home in my net worth, since I am always going to own a home presumably.

And frankly I am not hoping we rush back to bubble pricing on homes and the risk of another meltdown or bubble bursting, is anyone? Someone said this is not a recession, it's a reset - and I hope it is...

[rescueme]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orchidflower In case some of you don't use MarketWatch daily and might miss this, I felt many would possibly like to see when the homes in your State will rebound......

Don't know; don't care.

Guess I'm lucky, being older, retired, and debt free. I'm also in my "terminal home" and have no plans to move (unless due to health, but I can't plan that ).

Life is good...

[WhoDaresWins]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg I watch so much HGTV that I already know how I'll stage the house when I sell . Remove half the furniture Clean closets and remove half of clothes Hide all personal items Float candles in the pool Bake cookies Set the table Hide every small appliance in the kitchen No Coffee for you or toast Buy all new neutral linens Do I have it done pat or what ? Thanks HGTV !

Yup! You do have it down pat. They say the number one thing you can do is declutter and make sure everything is really clean, especially the kitchen and the baths. My sister in law went even further when she had her husband and 3 big dogs move out to a motel while she was showing the house. This was almost 10 years ago but she sold the house herself in one day. The stagers say you should have a maximum of one appliance on the counter. Also open all the window treatments to let in natural light and turn on all the lights. Don't block focal points(windows and fireplaces) with furniture but rather pull the furniture away from the walls, especially seating so that people can walk around the room which gives a feeling of space and arrange the seating in conversation groupings. HGTV shows say that all the appliances should match...all stainless or all white, etc. I am going to help a friend after the New Year with her place as she wants to retire and move back to Alabama.

[Dennis]

1. I agree with most, espeically Independently Poor..We need SMALLER and Normal Size Houses ( 1200-1500 Sq Ft0 and not McMansions.
2. I think the reason so many communities City Council Zoaning Boards make requirements for larger homes to be built was to (a) Increase their Tax Base per Home/Lot and (b) keep out Middle and Lower Middle Income families
3. But, this caused Alot of TEAR Downs and Kept Younger Families , that inturn causes Less And Slower Growth for the Community...and it's businesses..
4. and Be like rescueme.. In a Terminal Home...LOL Like that one! but true... that somany don't want to admit too.

Location, Location, Location... In my area of the North Sub. of Chicago? Property values have ave over 7% apy for decades.. an was hit less hard than other area's, but again, the Ave. Median Income is above $60k yr.. With More White Collar types an Very Little Mfg. Co.'s .."In the Burbs"... We bought a Smaller Place 5 yrs b4 our retirement plans and started to rehab it and then we Sol our primary home of 30 yrs at the peak of prices an moved. We commutted for about a yr while still working . We also Pocketed over $300k net after The Retirement place costs in Tax Free $ , added to our retirement savings..( that extra $12k yr- taking a 4% WDR made a Big difference on our Retirement Income) an ALOT less Work to keep up a place now..Just mow the Little lawn w/Elec. Mower, takes about 10 min an that's it. It's a Plastic House ( Vynil Siding) All New Stuff to last the next 20-30 yrs, gone 3-4 mos in winter and we go Camping during the Summer and Fall.. with our Camping Club..( We live only 60 mi.North in Wi. Now - The Smaller 2 bdrm place only cost us $75k and put in another 25k to rehab it )

And If your Home isn't staying At Least Up with or Exceeding Inflation? I suggest you Move.. as Soon as you can..

And don't think, your home Isn't an Investment... Eventually Everyone's Home is Sold to pay for Adding Tax Free $ to their Retirement savings by Downsizing to paying for NHome Costs ( reverse Mrtge) to Being Sold to settle Estate and $ goes to Heirs/kids, etc.. ( too many use that Homestead Law business to Hide their Assets or are House Poor to get Welfare Benefits and that's wrong, crying Poor Mouth to get everyone else to pay for their Taxes,Utilities and NH Costs)

This Business of a Home is NOT an investment for retirement is just plain Wrong.. It IS an investment..For your Retirement..

It's the Admitting the Time to Downsize is upon you as the Main Problem.. I've seen so many Seniors trying to Stay in their Bigger Homes an financially ( and Physically) struggle.. Time to stop Getting on a Ladder and Cleaning the Gutters to raking the Leaves Dad..To Don't go spending $30k+ to remodel the Kitchen and Bath Mom.. An end up being House Poor..after Dad Dies.. Odds are, if the home is more than 40-50 yrs old? It's a TEAR DOWN, espeically if your neighborhood is getting alot of New Homes going up, where your neighbors old homes once were.. The House is Worth Nothing, it's the LAND.. And if the Land isn't worth much, ( Like in the SWest) ? Your trying to make Silk out of a Cow's Ear routine.. Building all those Cheap Made Places in teh Desert /Sand was just Plain Wrong..No wonder they are all but all Empty.. and who the heck wants to live In Fear of Gateors & Snakes & Crime! (Fla.) And all that Humidity and Bugs? No thank you.. And those Condo's? Are stucco /Mud Adobe Pieces of Junk.. We tried that for a few yrs and we spent more time Indoors than out! And Couldn't Speak Cuban/Spanish either..! In that Condo/Mobile Home State! LOL And same for Living down SW in Az.. No thanks!

If you own in a Decent Communitiy with Moderate to Above ave. Growth? You're going to do fine.. Being in Decent Schools an close to work and Moderate RE Taxes are the key's..

Those that are Not in this kind of area? Wait till things Recover ( 3-5 yrs?) and Then Sell an Get out an Move..

And For Retiree's? I just Buy for a Place that Cost the Least, Near Medical Centers and Lowest Taxes an just want it to grow per Inflation at the most..an That is a Place that I don't count on to be more than a Temporary Place before having to go into a Condo or NH.

Otherwise, your just kidding yourself. Do you want your Wife to have to keep up some 3+ bedrm place? If you have deep pockets to hire people to keep it up? Fine, but for the rest? Time to take a Look at the Future and make plans now.. If you can? Buy a Retirement ( Smaller) place Now while they are Cheaper, take out a 30 yr mortg. on it for now, just pay the Interest until you can sell your place in a couple of yrs and then pay it off...and take the Difference ( Profits) in Tax Free $ and add it to your Retirement savings and your Good to Go..

On Nice Cruises, which are So Cheap now an for the next few yrs., you're really missing out on having some fun.. ( we spent 4 wks btwn taking 4 cruises and only cost us Only $2k btwn them, got off one and went on another and by joining the BoatBum Memberships, if you do more than 2 crusies a yr, you get another -10% Discount an other Bennies )

Nice way to spend a Month during the Winter too..

;-) Have Fun while you can.. Times running out my fellow retiree's..

[Moemg]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dennis . and who the heck wants to live In Fear of Gateors & Snakes & Crime! (Fla.) And all that Humidity and Bugs? No thank you.

The people who live in fear of massive snow , sleet , ice storms , snow blowers and massive amounts of gray gloomy weather .

[IndependentlyPoor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Delawaredave5 Are you sure about median price/income data ? I find it hard to believe that house prices went from 1x to 5x income. Link below suggests it was much more consistent. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sourc...cLctk2LUdn-jRQ

Nope. I am not sure. I remember seeing charts like this before, but finding the data and pulling it together is tedious, even for someone who enjoys number crunching, so I just looked for a chart that was posted somewhere. It resembled what I remembered so I went with it. Even though the posted seemed to have an axe to grind, he did list his sources.

I looked at the original data for both sets of numbers and found that the difference lies in the household income data. They both use the same house price data. Take 1996 for example. The Google source shows $42,300 and the source from my post shows $35,172. They don't even agree on the number of households: 70241 vs 101,081. These are both official sources, so the difference must be the methodology.

Let's look at the differences. It is not clear where the post I quoted got the income data for years after 1996. The source link is to a census bureau catalog of various related reports and I can't find the right one. Bummer. So, for 1996 the price to income ratio for the Google data is $140,000/$42,300 = 3.31 and for the data in my post it is $140,000/$35,172 = 3.98.

At any rate, for the peak year of 2006, the Google data shows a price/income ratio of 4.2. That is still pretty unaffordable, and that is national data. It was much worse in California, Florida, Nevada. See for example, San Diego

Shocking isn't it? I find it hard to believe too. Note that this is per capita and not household income, so that explains some of its extreme nature.

I downloaded Google's original source data and plotted it. Here it is
price2income.gif

Is it good policy for the government to intervene in the market to drive house prices back to an unaffordable (or almost unaffordable) peak level?

I don't want to rant about this. Being on the other side of the fence (potential buyer instead of seller) made me look closer at the data than I might have otherwise done. I was worried about buying into a bubble market, so I was watching it pretty closely. Prices in Austin have fallen some and we might buy, but we have become lazy and comfy in our apartment...

[MichaelB]

Housing prices historically have tracked inflation (land revalues while construction depreciates), usually showing not more than 1% real growth over time. Case Shiller data from August show that 2/3 of the 20 areas they track have 6/2009 prices that are below 1990 grown at 2.5% annually while currently (6/09) some are still higher than ’90 plus 3% annual. (denver, miami, boston, new york, seattle). Overall, it seems housing prices are back in line with their historical trend.

Housing price increases have strong positive correlation with employment data. Employment seems to be stabilizing – as are housing prices, and I would expect to see prices increase when employment rises as well, but probably not before.

[audreyh1]

Your home isn't a retirement investment. You have to live somewhere even when retired. If your home is a large chunk of your net worth and you are relying on it to appreciate a lot to fund your retirement (and then downsize), then either you haven't saved nearly enough for retirement or you live in a very high cost area (which also makes saving for retirement very difficult).

Audrey

[youbet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Your home isn't a retirement investment. You have to live somewhere even when retired. If your home is a large chunk of your net worth and you are relying on it to appreciate a lot to fund your retirement (and then downsize), then either you haven't saved nearly enough for retirement or you live in a very high cost area (which also makes saving for retirement very difficult). Audrey

I look at it in a little different way Audrey. My paid-for home saves me money each month because the taxes and maintenance expense is significantly less than what we'd pay to rent housing we'd be happy living in. So, I think of my house as an investment that reduces my RE cash flow requirements. That is, without it, I'd need either a bigger FIRE portfolio or I'd have to withdraw from the current portfolio at a higher WR.

I don't count on house appreciation to fund retirement. But I do feel that a retiree with, for example, a paid-for $300k house and a one million bux portfolio is better off than a retiree with only the one million bux portfolio.

It's just terminology, but a paid-for house is an asset that, all other things being equal, can materially improve your financial status, so I call it an investment. But I didn't count it as part of our financial portfolio when making the decision to pull the plug and RE.

BTW, I agree with you that living in a expensive home and then downsizing to fund RE is an "iffy" strategy.

[IndependentlyPoor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by youbet My paid-for home saves me money each month because the taxes and maintenance expense is significantly less than what we'd pay to rent housing we'd be happy living in. . . . BTW, I agree with you that living in a expensive home and then downsizing to fund RE is an "iffy" strategy.

I agree on the first part, but YMMV. By 2004, our house had appreciated so much that it was a ridiculous percentage of our net worth. On top of that, taxes had more than tripled. Our property taxes alone were more than the original PITI. Austin had high home appreciation and Texas is a high real-estate tax state, so the equation changes.

I agree on the second part too. We never planned to sell our home and downsize, but did. There are lots of tradeoffs.

[youbet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by IndependentlyPoor I agree on the first part, but YMMV. By 2004, our house had appreciated so much that it was a ridiculous percentage of our net worth. On top of that, taxes had more than tripled. Our property taxes alone were more than the original PITI. Austin had high home appreciation and Texas is a high real-estate tax state, so the equation changes. I agree on the second part too. We never planned to sell our home and downsize, but did. There are lots of tradeoffs.

Yep, and the "YMMV" is probably an understatement. Lots and lots of variability in home ownership depending on all sorts of factors from taxes to appreciation/depreciation, your own interest and ability in maintaining/improving the home, and on and on.

Here in the Chicago suburbs, at least here in the NW suburbs, we didn't experience the bubble that some areas did. And we aren't experiencing the bust as much either. Homes have continued to sell in our neighborhood through all this.

But we're not house flippers. We've been here over 30 yrs. The house has been a bit of a part time job as I try to do most routine maintenance and upkeep myself. It's been a decent place to live. If sold, it would fund a number of years of RE expenses if our retirement portfolio winds up failing as FireCalc says it has a 1% chance of doing.

So, it is what it is. Whether you want to call it an investment or not is just terminology. But it certainly has enough value to not be ignored.

[IndependentlyPoor]

House prices might suffer at year-end.

Calculated Risk: Housing: "Facing a triple whammy" at end of Year

[huskerblue]

I don't see why housing prices ever HAVE to go up. With a shrinking population once the Boomers head for retirement homes and then die off (I can say this, I'm one of them) there may be quite a glut of homes on the market.

As many have noted, the age of the McMansion may be behind us as a new age of at least some austerity may be beginning. Thus, the high end market may have a very long way to go yet.

PS - Ddave5, love your Boston, I have two myself.

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by huskerblue I don't see why housing prices ever HAVE to go up. With a shrinking population once the Boomers head for retirement homes and then die off (I can say this, I'm one of them) there may be quite a glut of homes on the market.

The US population is still growing, and even though the growth rate will be slowing, it will still be growing. I don't think there's going to be a glut of homes.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley The US population is still growing, and even though the growth rate will be slowing, it will still be growing. I don't think there's going to be a glut of homes.

Maybe just a glut of McMansions? I really wonder about that.

Audrey

[Dennis]

IAD. Blame your City Council.. They saw how by Requiring Bigger Homes be Built on those Tear Downs and New Homes, they would make More RE Taxes.. an thus have more $ to spend...

But, they left out about Keeping Growth of Younger Families being able to Live there and Seniors an Some Minorities as well, to serve everyone else..

Just Lobby your city council to keep area's designate for Ave Housing, 1,000-1,500 Sq ft and Some townhomes and Condo's .. Otherwise? They will Force you out when you retire, higher RE taxes and tear your place down an Build nothing but Big Barns on it..

Can be Considered? Discrimination maybe?
But , not if there is a Fine Line maintaine of requiring Younger Lower-Middle Income to be able to Live there... And still keep out the Real Low Income Minorities..with the gangs, etc.. that bring with them to your schools and community..
The Lower Middle Income are still growing and will eventually become the future Middle Income if you give them a chance..

Just like they did for allowing the Irish an Italians into the country..many moons ago.. Just ask your grandparents about those Early days in the 1900's..
or watch the PBS Shows about it..

[MGYog]

We have lived in the same home in a suburb of Chicago for 27 years. This is where all my kids grew up, went to school, and flew the coop. We had our house on the market for a grand total of 18 days!!! It was snapped up by a single, middle-aged lady who paid full price. Even our RE agent was amazed. We did keep up the house rather well, and we did not price it at cut rate levels. In fact, we priced it at 5% more than the RE agent was recommending. The RE market must be turning, IMHO experience of one.