When will home prices rise again?

[Lusitan]

Rising home prices would be terrible for working families who already cannot afford to buy a home without goofy loans from sketchy banks, which the govt seems to end up on the hook for down the road.

I don't want to see a re-inflated housing bubble ever again.

[Delawaredave5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by huskerblue PS - Ddave5, love your Boston, I have two myself.

Thanks - they are wonderful breed

[JOHNNIE36]

Article in the Tampa Tribune this morning stated that in the last few months housing prices here are up 17% but the volume of sales was down 17%. From much of what I have read, it will be quite some time before the housing market comes back. If the economy doesn't recover shortly, housing will get worse. The job market still doesn't look good. No work, no pay, no house. And, I still see the job market as a ways off for recovery. I don't know how unemployment benefits work but if they don't get extended, housing will tank again. Hate to be doom and gloom but things might get worse before they get better. A lot of companies are in a wait and see mode and they don't want to hire people short term and then let them go again.

[farmerEd]

I predict that the Nasdaq will get back to its old peak before houses across the board pass their old peak...in other words, a very long time...

Of course some houses, like some stocks, will do better, but as a whole we are in for a long ride waiting for houses to "peak" again.

[JOHNNIE36]

Again this morning in the Tampa Tribune, an article by Chris Rugaber of the AP, paints a bleak picture of the economic recovery. He says reports "are a wake-up call for anyone expecting a smooth transition to a strong economic recovery". He says that while sales of new homes inched up 0.7% in August, durable goods orders were down 2.4%. Existing home sales were down 2.7 %. Economists are lowering their forecasts for growth.

[IndependentlyPoor]

Another post from one of my favorite financial bloggers;
Single Family Home Prices, Inflation Adj (1970-2009) | The Big Picture

[free4now]

The real question is how fast is housing going to grow once it starts growing again. I just don't see any economic force that is going to drive appreciation for a long time. We've gotten used to housing prices being driven by the fed, lending standards, and other outside forces in recent years. But in the end it's jobs and wages that are the fundamental underpinning of appreciation. I don't see jobs and wages even recovering much less flourishing for quite a while. And as a kicker I just saw an article about how in my area option ARMs are going to start a huge new wave of adjustments that will drastically raise payments for many owners over the next few years, leading to more foreclosures:

$30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010

I'm a renter and I'm sitting out for a long time.

[Delawaredave5]

I just do not see any upside to buying now, but I can see downside.

1. Do not see any major force to improve income growth. What fueled the 20th century household income growth was first manufacturing, then working spouses, then the financial services industry. All of these are "played out".

2. Do not see any major demographic increases in housing demand. Baby boomers are retiring, immigration has slowed, energy costs are encouraging people into smaller and fewer houses.

3. Do not see any outside / governmental forces increasing housing demand. Lending standards are going to stay tight for a long time and the government has no resources to support higher home ownership percentages. I'd expect home mortgage interest deductions to continue to phased-down and needs tested.

The old adages of "your house is your best investment" and "buy all the house you can afford" just don't seem as true as they used to be going forward.

Yet I still wonder if we'll look back 10-15 years from now and say, "wow back in 2009 you could buy McMansions for only $750,000...."

[retiredtuna1]

Here is a useful tool: the NY Times rent vs. buy calculator.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/bu...PHIC.html?_r=1
Wishing you all well.

[Orchidflower]

That is really cool, retiredtuna1, so thanks for that graph. I'll be using it alot in the future.

[clifp]

Yes that is very nice calculator. It is amazing what a modest difference in price appreciation say 3% to 4%/year makes in the payback period.

[Delawaredave5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp It is amazing what a modest difference in price appreciation say 3% to 4%/year makes in the payback period.

I do not understand whether/how inflation is represented.

The appreciation you put in the slider should be appreciation after inflation - correct ?

If so, 3-4% is probably more than modest - I think RE historically appreciates at 1-2%, after inflation.

I'm amazed at range the programmer put on the slider -- 30% appreciation on the upside, and 10% depreciation on the downside -- that person "drank the punch" that RE always goes up........

[MichaelB]

Case-Shiller data out this morning show 3 month increases in 19 of 20 metro areas. Only Las Vegas still in the red.

It also shows in most areas home prices are in line with longer term trend lines of inflation or inflation plus 1% (using 1987 to 1990 as baselines).

[Martha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg I watch so much HGTV that I already know how I'll stage the house when I sell . Remove half the furniture Clean closets and remove half of clothes Hide all personal items Float candles in the pool Bake cookies Set the table Hide every small appliance in the kitchen No Coffee for you or toast Buy all new neutral linens Do I have it done pat or what ? Thanks HGTV !

My real estate agent, who is one of the best and most successful in my town, has a different opinion on this which I found intriguing. She says, at least for our market, that people want to buy homes they feel comfortable in, that feel homey. So, for example, where I used to remove all evidence that I have a dog, she says people like dogs, they want to see that the home is one that is comfortable to have a pet. I also used to hide all evidence that I have a baby living with me part of the time. She says no, don't do that, people want to know that even with a small place like mine (an apartment essentially) is comfortable to have a grandchild over. She is of the opinion that setting the table is just weird and too transparently staged. But clean is good. Really clean. Including windows.

So, I did declutter to some extent and don't have excess furniture, I keep the kitchen and bathrooms super clean, but I don't remove all the personal stuff and try to keep it homey. We will see if what she says helps.

It does make it easier to live in while it is on the market.

[W2R]

Martha, all I can say is that when I was looking for my present home, I was really grossed out by one home with dirty diapers in evidence and babies everywhere. I also had a hard time evaluating a (probably perfectly nice) home that smelled like wet wolves had been rolling on the carpet due to the dogs, and another that smelled like cigars. So, I tend to agree with Moemg's list though I do not plan to set the table. It does have a pretty lace tablecloth on it, and centerpiece, though.

When the time comes for me to sell, my tentative plan is to:

(1) get rid of much (but not all) of my furniture
(2) hide anything personal like the paintings and sculptures, and remove nearly everything from the granite countertops and turn on the lights that show them off; empty the closets almost completely
(3) paint where needed
(4) finish the deferred maintenance
(5) probably get the carpets replaced if my realtor thinks I should.
(6) clean as thoroughly as I can
(7) then after that hire a professional service to clean even more thoroughly.
(8) use a light apple or citrus scent or do the old "baking cookies" thing, and
(9) call it a day.

One of my bedrooms is tiny - - only 9'x9'. I use it as my office/computer room. When I bought my house the prior owner had a smaller-than-twin bed in that bedroom and a tiny antique desk. I am on the fence as to whether to do that, have it completely empty, or half fill it with boxes of my stored stuff.

[CuppaJoe]

We put mom's house on the market at 3 p.m. during the weeks we were packing everything up and moving her out. Chaos! Our friend, a real estate agent, already had an interested party. At 6 p.m. when we were at the table eating one of our last meals in the house, the potential buyer arrived. As a nod to staging, my sister put some cinnamon in a pan and let it simmer. We had an offer at 7 p.m., we countered with the asking price and it essentially was sold at 8 p.m. YMMV!

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe We put mom's house on the market at 3 p.m. during the weeks we were packing everything up and moving her out. Chaos! Our friend, a real estate agent, already had an interested party. At 6 p.m. when we were at the table eating one of our last meals in the house, the potential buyer arrived. As a nod to staging, my sister put some cinnamon in a pan and let it simmer. We had an offer at 7 p.m., we countered with the asking price and it essentially was sold at 8 p.m. YMMV!

That sounds like a dream come true!! If that happened I would be in 7th heaven.

A house in the next block was put on the market at a price per square foot that I would have thought ideal ($175K for 1450 sq ft). Any less, and people would wonder "What's wrong with it?" I haven't seen the inside but it has tons of curb appeal, with new landscaping and new and very appealing doors. It has been on the market since last March. That is kind of unnerving.

[Martha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire Martha, all I can say is that when I was looking for my present home, I was really grossed out by one home with dirty diapers in evidence and babies everywhere. I also had a hard time evaluating a (probably perfectly nice) home that smelled like wet wolves had been rolling on the carpet due to the dogs, and another that smelled like cigars. So, I tend to agree with Moemg's list though I do not plan to set the table. It does have a pretty lace tablecloth on it, and centerpiece, though.

This is why I emphasized the importance of clean. As far as kid stuff, I have a toybox with the toys in it and a highchair in the kitchen. The pack and play crib gets folded up and put away.

Quote:

When the time comes for me to sell, my tentative plan is to: (1) get rid of much (but not all) of my furniture (2) hide anything personal like the paintings and sculptures, and remove nearly everything from the granite countertops and turn on the lights that show them off; empty the closets almost completely (3) paint where needed (4) finish the deferred maintenance (5) probably get the carpets replaced if my realtor thinks I should. (6) clean as thoroughly as I can (7) then after that hire a professional service to clean even more thoroughly. (8) use a light apple or citrus scent or do the old "baking cookies" thing, and (9) call it a day. One of my bedrooms is tiny - - only 9'x9'. I use it as my office/computer room. When I bought my house the prior owner had a smaller-than-twin bed in that bedroom and a tiny antique desk. I am on the fence as to whether to do that, have it completely empty, or half fill it with boxes of my stored stuff.

Hey, the paintings and scultures might really make things look nice! I think blanding out things too much may not be the best idea. But then again, each market is different.

[youbet]

All this talk about "staging" and baking cookies reinforces why DW and I can't house hunt together. She's influenced by those sort of things. I'm strictly a location, layout/floorplan and construction quality guy.

I understand that to sell our place, just showing the solid construction and well maintained status won't be all that's needed to move it for a decent price. But gosh, it's tough for a guy to understand that the smell of cookies in the oven may be more important than the high quality HVAC system you recently installed!

[audreyh1]

On Staging: I guess we did it right - even though we did it our way.

We decided to get rid of all of our "stuff" before we put the house on the market. We'd already moved into the RV. It delayed us until early August for getting the house on the market, but we couldn't see doing it any other way.

House was totally decluttered and then very thoroughly cleaned including power washing the exterior. Nothing on surfaces, fridge, drawers, closets and cabinets empty. Only our best furniture was left in the house - dining room, living room, master bedroom. Garage empty except for lawn maintenance equipment and cleared shelving. Back yard completely empty except for large wood swing.

It made the house look much bigger - clear back yard and garage, smaller bedrooms empty, etc.

I didn't bother with the "baking", but some light vanilla scented potpourri sure helped.

The second house visitor made an offer. Negotiated in 2 days. Closed in 10 days. All cash deal - SWEET!!!! It went so fast!

Audrey