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Old 12-07-2008, 09:18 PM   #21
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Peter, Paul & Mary; and Chad Mitchell Trio also did good versions.
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I always like the Kingston Trio rendition of this song. I did not know Bob Dylan also sang it.
Better yet...... Here's a version done by PP and M plus the Kingston Trio! The song was written by Pete Seeger. If Dylan ever recorded it, I'm unaware of it.



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Old 12-08-2008, 10:05 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
"Gone to graveyards, everyone. When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn"
How many times must a man sell his stocks,
Before you call him a dirty market timer?
Yes, 'n' how times must Suze Orman speak,
Before they say she's just a wisenheimer?
Yes, 'n' how many slumps will it takes til he knows,
That too many people have cashed out at the bottom?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

Oops, wrong song!
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Old 12-08-2008, 10:37 AM   #23
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Peter, Paul & Mary; and Chad Mitchell Trio also did good versions.
i was lucky enough to see PP&M live in an old style theatre in upstate NY, many many moons ago. Mary's voice in a live concert with perfect theatre acoustics, and without the restrictions of a recording studio, was stunning. i had goose bumps listening to her sing.
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Old 12-08-2008, 03:49 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
How many times must a man sell his stocks,
Before you call him a dirty market timer?
Yes, 'n' how times must Suze Orman speak,
Before they say she's just a wisenheimer?
Yes, 'n' how many slumps will it takes til he knows,
That too many people have cashed out at the bottom?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

Oops, wrong song!
LOL pretty damn good.

Al you are officially allowed to quit your day job. Not sure if that is surfing or playing the trombone.
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Old 12-08-2008, 03:54 PM   #25
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Another Economist article that is along the same lines as what OP posted:

A time for financial risks | When the golden eggs run out | The Economist

Particularly poignant is the concluding paragraph in the article:

"The time for investors to take financial risks is when risky assets offer a sizeable long-term return, not when risk premiums are low. Savers need to save themselves."

Translation: now is a much better time to buy than a year ago.
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Old 12-08-2008, 04:04 PM   #26
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LOL pretty damn good.

Al you are officially allowed to quit your day job. Not sure if that is surfing or playing the trombone.
Too bad Al can't sing and play the trombone at the same time (perhaps while on a surfboard)--or can he?
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Old 12-08-2008, 04:06 PM   #27
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Yes, unfortunately MPT broke this year I think. Well in a sense it has been broken for a few years, it's just that you didn't notice previously because everything was going up in value.
You mean broke because things are more correlated?

Most implementations of MPT that I am familiar with indicate to buy a broadly diversified basket of US and international equities, commodities, REIT's, and for the fixed side, relatively short duration high quality bonds (typically treasuries).

Wouldn't a properly implemented MPT portfolio be poised to take advantage of relatively cheaply priced US and international equities, commodities, and REIT's by rebalancing funds from the bond allocation (that would have gone up in value this year) to the equities side in those sectors that had dropped the most?

Even in my 100% equities portfolio, I have done pretty well by selling US equities that were down ~40% and buying some international funds and REIT funds that were down around 60%.

Sell low and buy lower?
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Old 12-08-2008, 04:14 PM   #28
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i was lucky enough to see PP&M live in an old style theatre in upstate NY, many many moons ago. Mary's voice in a live concert with perfect theatre acoustics, and without the restrictions of a recording studio, was stunning. i had goose bumps listening to her sing.
I saw Peter,Paul and Mary in the mid 60's and then again in late 80's . Mary's voice was the same but she went from a willow thin blond to a very very large woman .
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Old 12-08-2008, 04:46 PM   #29
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Mary's voice was the same but she went from a willow thin blond to a very very large woman .
A VVLW. I like it.

Ha
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Old 12-09-2008, 05:23 PM   #30
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A VVLW. I like it.

Ha
VVLW? Is that a short ETF against weight again?
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Old 12-09-2008, 05:31 PM   #31
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On a trip to NYC, my daughter and I went to a super cool club in The Village, where Mary was a waitress before her Peter, Paul, and Mary days.

Our trip was in 2001, and I don't think they had done ANY upgrading of the facilities since Mary's employment.
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Old 12-09-2008, 06:18 PM   #32
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Even in my 100% equities portfolio, I have done pretty well by selling US equities that were down ~40% and buying some international funds and REIT funds that were down around 60%.

Sell low and buy lower?
I did a similar version of "sell low, buy lower". Got stopped out of my stocks. Then, got them back at lower prices. Well, a bit too early. So, did not make money. Who woulda thunk they go that loooow?

Did not make any money, just lost less than had I done nothing. How about you?
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Old 12-09-2008, 06:39 PM   #33
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Well, fwiw, all our savings went into a fix investment account sincel 1997 when I got tired of worrying about big market moves. I know I'm not a risk taker like many here but in retrospect we saved at a high rate of our income (20-30%) and with our fixed investments we've managed (lucked out) to avoid the Dot.Com, 911, and current crisis.

No doubt, with the drive to very low fixed rates it seems to me the intent is to drive people like us to put our $$$ in equity in order to rev up the economy rather than hoard it in fixed accounts.

Since we're both retired (me & DW) we'll stay in 100% fixed- (3,4, or 5% return will work nicely) well, only if our investmet firm does not go belly up
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Old 12-09-2008, 07:52 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
How many times must a man sell his stocks,
Before you call him a dirty market timer?
Yes, 'n' how times must Suze Orman speak,
Before they say she's just a wisenheimer?
Yes, 'n' how many slumps will it takes til he knows,
That too many people have cashed out at the bottom?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind.

Oops, wrong song!
Al,

Keyboard just got doused with herb tea!
This is great!

Thanks,

Free
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Old 12-10-2008, 02:10 PM   #35
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I did a similar version of "sell low, buy lower". Got stopped out of my stocks. Then, got them back at lower prices. Well, a bit too early. So, did not make money. Who woulda thunk they go that loooow?

Did not make any money, just lost less than had I done nothing. How about you?
I'm not positive I have made a whole lot of money from my "sell low, buy lower" transactions. The REIT that we bought at just about the lowest point a few weeks ago is up 37%. The small cap international and international REIT is up 8% and 15% respectively. To fund the aforementioned purchases, I sold a bunch of large cap blend/growth that has since gone up 10%. So overall, I'd say it has turned out to be profitable.

But it was also the last step in my plan to convert my portfolio from a smorgasbord of mutual funds to an asset allocation portfolio with set target percentages and weighted towards small cap, value, international and includes REITs. The asset classes I was missing were "expensive" before, and they got much cheaper so I shifted the funds to get to my permanent asset allocation.
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Old 12-10-2008, 06:28 PM   #36
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Well, fwiw, all our savings went into a fix investment account sincel 1997 when I got tired of worrying about big market moves. I know I'm not a risk taker like many here but in retrospect we saved at a high rate of our income (20-30%) and with our fixed investments we've managed (lucked out) to avoid the Dot.Com, 911, and current crisis.

No doubt, with the drive to very low fixed rates it seems to me the intent is to drive people like us to put our $$$ in equity in order to rev up the economy rather than hoard it in fixed accounts.

Since we're both retired (me & DW) we'll stay in 100% fixed- (3,4, or 5% return will work nicely) well, only if our investmet firm does not go belly up
I get curious about things like this. Does anyone know if there are any calculators that would allow you to test where you would be had you invested in something simple like a couch potato portfolio in 1997 vs being in cash since that date. I suspect you might still be ahead had you been in the market, but I don't know how to prove or disprove it.
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Old 12-10-2008, 07:18 PM   #37
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I get curious about things like this. Does anyone know if there are any calculators that would allow you to test where you would be had you invested in something simple like a couch potato portfolio in 1997 vs being in cash since that date. I suspect you might still be ahead had you been in the market, but I don't know how to prove or disprove it.
There might be such a calculator, but I haven't found it yet. Here's Paul Farrells' annual review of the most popular lazy portfolios, but he hasn't updated it since Jan 08.

Subsequent edit: Farrell's data at the link above only compares the performance of the equity portion of each portfolio.
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Old 12-10-2008, 09:12 PM   #38
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Translation: now is a much better time to buy than a year ago.
Yup!
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Old 12-10-2008, 09:16 PM   #39
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Too bad Al can't sing and play the trombone at the same time (perhaps while on a surfboard)--or can he?
As Al knows, it is possible to sing, or at least to hum, while playing the trombone. At the right pitches, you can even produce a chord (three notes) from playing one note while humming a second.

Low brass rules!

From a long-time Trombone player ----
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