Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 03-24-2014, 01:32 PM   #21
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Richardson TX
Posts: 36
The oracles come out of the woodwork years later.

It reminds me of people who left my chosen career (firefighter) for either other departments or other jobs, to a man none of them regret it, or so they say, and you know that cant be the truth.

You never hear from the people that took a spanking.

I think its ridiculous to assert that everybody who took a beating were somehow timing the market or otherwise "foolish", but then again maybe I am.
__________________

__________________
rocks911 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-24-2014, 01:41 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocks911 View Post
The oracles come out of the woodwork years later.

It reminds me of people who left my chosen career (firefighter) for either other departments or other jobs, to a man none of them regret it, or so they say, and you know that cant be the truth.

You never hear from the people that took a spanking.

I think its ridiculous to assert that everybody who took a beating were somehow timing the market or otherwise "foolish", but then again maybe I am.
You have a useful resource on this Board of people who have lost and made money in saving for retirement. Many have been successful using simple rules and investing methods and have come out the other side of 2008 in good financial shape and with asset allocations that can survive down turns.

My advice would be to put your wife's 401k money in to a 60/40 balance of low cost index funds, a suitable target date fund or Vanguard Wellesley or Wellington and be disciplined in rebalancing.
__________________

__________________
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

Current AA: 65% Equity Funds / 20% Bonds / 7% Stable Value /3% Cash / 5% TIAA Traditional
Retired Mar 2014 at age 52, target WR: 0.0%,
Income from pension and rent
nun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2014, 01:46 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,156
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocks911 View Post
I think its ridiculous to assert that everybody who took a beating were somehow timing the market or otherwise "foolish", but then again maybe I am.
I'm not going to get into a debate over the accuracy of your statement, nor am I going to debate market history and the success of those who adhered to an equity/bond AA and a buy/hold/rebalance strategy. The facts speak for themselves.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2014, 02:09 PM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
RetireAge50's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,121
If I put my my money in a can I will have to keep working let alone go back to work.

I'm certain there have been zero "tragic" or "catastrophic" results over reasonable length holding periods. If someone sell stocks after holding for short periods then sure they can call it tragic for them but can only blame themselves.
__________________
RetireAge50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2014, 02:23 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocks911 View Post
....Our timeline for this is considerable, she cant touch the money for another decade, but I just cant stomach another precipitous drop, its taken 5 years to get back to where we were prior to 2008 and I dont want to do that again.

As I just moved into Vanguard I havent had the time to thoroughly research the various options and I'm afraid with Yellens statements about raising interest rates that a significant drop is looming and I dont currently have the time to research my best options....quite busy these days, so...any thoughts would be appreciated....
(emphasis added)

You asked, we answered. You obviously think you know better than us who have successfully retired. So if you know it all why bother to ask to begin with?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rocks911 View Post
The oracles come out of the woodwork years later.......
If you google back to threads from that era you will see that the general consensus was to stay the course, but please don't let facts get in the way of your opinion.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-24-2014, 06:49 PM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 198
Hi Rocks911,

I am not sure whether you missed that the main concept of asset allocation and in particular the fixed income/bonds/cash to equity ratio is to pick a % with which you can sleep and not sell during a 2008 or worse.

This is a fundamental tenet of asset allocation as it ensures that you do not sell low (and should be buying to maintain equity allocation too). If you take any major index --> and just look at it in morningstar history or google finance they have "fully recovered" from 2008/9 lows... so you don't have to rely on anyone rewriting history.

This asset allocation "system" has inbuilt market response (not timing as not predictive)... if equities drop and you follow the system you exchange bonds for equities so you are buying at lower equity prices. Similarly, if your mid and small have runup 30-40% as they did in 2013 you would be buying some bonds now... again selling high and buying relatively low.

However, if you try and mix your own predictive market timing into the system - it breaks as you have to time twice... getting out and getting back in.

I hope this makes sense.

Edited to add: I took a very big spanking - near 50% but was buying early in 2009 so all is great.
__________________
SVHoper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2014, 12:19 AM   #27
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 178
If you are sitting on excess cash what's the hurry to get back into stocks or bonds right now?

While I agree with most of the responses to the OP... given the current valuation of stocks and interest rates that can only go up from here... a little patience right now may not be a bad strategy. Market timing? maybe... but buying stock or bond funds today is buying high.

Today... what's the risk of lost opportunity vs. the risk of market declines in the next 1 or 2 years?

If you are extremely risk averse and believe interest rates will rise in the near future wait for CD rates to improve and park the money there. Ten years is not a very long period of time. If you were much younger a more aggressive AA in index funds makes good sense.

But not knowing more details about the OP's complete financial situation it's difficult to offer AA guidance.
__________________
34rlsa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-25-2014, 08:11 AM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
Quote:
Originally Posted by 34rlsa View Post
If you are extremely risk averse and believe interest rates will rise in the near future wait for CD rates to improve and park the money there. Ten years is not a very long period of time. If you were much younger a more aggressive AA in index funds makes good sense.
a 60/40 AA would be good for a 10 year horizon.....but if the OP is risk averse a CD ladder would be the way to go. I would not hold off on either approach. The OP could set up a 1,2,3,4,5 year CD ladder and as the CDs mature and interest rates rise reinvest at the higher rate. I wouldn't sit around waiting for some supposed interest/market opportunity.
__________________
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

Current AA: 65% Equity Funds / 20% Bonds / 7% Stable Value /3% Cash / 5% TIAA Traditional
Retired Mar 2014 at age 52, target WR: 0.0%,
Income from pension and rent
nun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-26-2014, 02:56 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Naples
Posts: 2,162
After fighting the low CD interest rates for the last few years, I have finally "bitten the bullet". My Ira CD just matured a couple weeks ago and the best I could do was 2.25 % for five years. My wife never gets involved in such things as this, but the low interest rates irritated her like I've never seen. She said "no way can we keep this up. We've got to do better than that." After some discussion we decided to put that money in the Vanguard Wellesley Admiral Fund. Vanguard was great in setting up my account and performing the custodial transfer of funds.
__________________

__________________
JOHNNIE36 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Wifes 401 movement rocks911 FIRE and Money 13 12-27-2013 04:15 PM
Rollover 401(k) - E*Trade vs Vanguard? robybuck Hi, I am... 4 12-11-2013 11:31 AM
Aetna just canceled wifes medicare advantage plan mf15 Health and Early Retirement 11 09-27-2013 01:51 PM
Help me decide 401-K vs. Roth 401-K wanaberetiree FIRE and Money 22 07-14-2013 03:10 PM
Tranfering 401(k) to IRA back to 401(k) dennisbaker Young Dreamers 14 09-23-2009 01:28 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:49 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.