Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?
Significantly higher-over 100% 13 27.66%
Higher between 50-100% 19 40.43%
Higher between 25-50% 12 25.53%
About the same 2 4.26%
Lower 1 2.13%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?
Old 11-17-2010, 06:22 PM   #1
Dryer sheet wannabe
Contrarian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 24
Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?

Where will S&P 500 be in 10 years?
__________________

__________________
Contrarian is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-17-2010, 06:23 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,107
I dunno - where?
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2010, 06:31 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Projecting forward with my calibrated Mark I linear eyeball I get 2500.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg S&P500.jpg (43.6 KB, 10 views)
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2010, 06:37 PM   #4
Dryer sheet wannabe
Contrarian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 24
Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting. Anyhow was curious what people might predict.

Bob

P.S.-Hurray my tenth post and I got my second star.
__________________
Contrarian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2010, 07:33 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
I'd be much more interested on where VT is in 10 years as that is an approximation of what I'm invested in equity wise. I do hold some S&P 500 as it is the only cheap low cost US equity index fund available in my 401a account.

DD
__________________
At 54% of FIRE target
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2010, 07:44 PM   #6
Moderator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Eee Bah Gum
Posts: 21,100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Contrarian View Post
Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting.
I am invested in the total US stock market plus an indexed international fund and these include a great many more companies than the 500 large companies in the S&P 500.
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Now it's adventure before dementia
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:09 AM   #7
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,455
I didn't vote because I have no clue and there is no option for that view. Nonetheless, my portfolio is more than 50% equities. I suspect the S&P will be somewhat higher in real terms, but in nominal value - who knows.

That said, over those 10 years (just like the past 10 years) it will be much higher and also much lower. S&P is just one equity asset class - large US companies. There are other equity asset classes in the US and around the developed and emerging world.

Businesses create and add value. Of all major investment asset classes, equities offer the most added value by far. Fixed income and commodities create none, real estate creates some. Any portfolio that requires or expects growth will be challenged to achieve that without a healthy allocation to equities.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:10 AM   #8
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: cleveland
Posts: 22
Where will it be or where do we want it to be?
__________________
halcyon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:24 AM   #9
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
"The index reached an all-time intraday high of 1,552.87 in trading on March 24, 2000."

Heck, I would be glad if it went back in history a bit ...
__________________
rescueme is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:25 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
There should be an option for:
"I have no idea/don't know what the stock market will do in the future but, I'm partially or fully invested in it."

Similar to:

'I have no idea/don't know where this bus is going but, I'm getting on board."
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:41 AM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
Automatika's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Lebanon, TN
Posts: 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I dunno - where?
I vote for Nebraska

Actually voted for +25-50% provided the world doesn't end in 2012
__________________
"If it didn't have bones in it, it wouldn't be crunchy now, would it?" -M. Python


Age 50, DW is 54, 1.4M split 25 Stock, 40 Mutual Funds, 25 Bonds, 5 Commodities, 5 REIT. Own Home, no debts.
Automatika is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 08:54 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
2355 1201 1572 3498 0 1943!
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 12:59 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Keim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Moscow
Posts: 1,128
I predict it will maintain its current location:
55 Water Street
New York New York

Or did you mean something different?
__________________
You can't enlighten the unconscious.
But you can hit'em upside the head a few times to make sure they are really out...
Keim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 03:00 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,820
I wanted to vote "Any of the above" but didn't see that option.

Similarly, I have no idea what the real returns on bonds will be over the next 10 years.
And, no idea on any particular international stock fund.
I used to say I knew what the real returns on TIPS would be, but that was in the days when nobody could envision a US default.
__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 03:53 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent View Post
I wanted to vote "Any of the above" but didn't see that option.

Similarly, I have no idea what the real returns on bonds will be over the next 10 years.
And, no idea on any particular international stock fund.
I used to say I knew what the real returns on TIPS would be, but that was in the days when nobody could envision a US default.
Every poll on this board should have an 'other' choice.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2010, 07:31 PM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Silicon Valley
Posts: 198
Hi,

Sorry I have no idea... but I anxiously await the Wheeeeeeeee! posts and the "I'm moving to 100% cash" posts even moreso.

I wouldn't be surprised that there might be an inverse correlation between % of stocks vs bonds, and % of S&P500 as part of stocks. Maybe I am biased but I have had virtually 100% stocks for decade and also 0% of S&P500. Will be grudgingly moving to around 10-15% large caps over next 6 months mainly due to age becoming a little more conservative.

I can't help generally being optimistic... so I guess that means I believe on average the economy will recover, interest rates will rise gently - bonds won't be as good as past decade, USD will rise gently, international will get a bit of negative currency effect... I guess the alternative would be Japan.

However, I am more certain there will be plenty of rebalancing opportunities
__________________
SVHoper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-20-2010, 07:57 AM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Contrarian View Post
Part of reason I posted as poll, apart from testing how to post a poll, is I noticed many seem to have 50% or more in equities from what I can tell. S&P has been flat in nominal terms about a decade. The equity premium seems to be less a principle to be relied upon than a construct based on backtesting. Anyhow was curious what people might predict.
Remember that a decade ago the "equity premium" was non-existent. At the market peak, the "earnings yield" for the S&P 500 was 400 bp lower than the yield for 10-yr government bonds. Today it is 200bp higher. Had stock multiples remained unchanged over the past decade, the S&P 500 would trade at nearly 2,500 today.

I wouldn't look at the past decade's stock returns as anything other than payback for unusually excessive valuations at the starting point. And although the future is uncertain, one thing we know for a fact is that valuations are 50% lower today than they were at the beginning of the last decade.
__________________

__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
S&P 500 has worst decade ever. Maurice FIRE and Money 40 02-14-2009 11:13 PM
Portfolio w/ S&P 500 ferco FIRE and Money 3 11-11-2008 12:52 AM
S & O 500 and dividends Cadence FIRECalc support 1 04-18-2007 09:22 PM
S&P 500 Down 72% ?? grumpy FIRE and Money 5 12-23-2004 03:25 AM
S&P 500 - foreign income? unclemick FIRE and Money 1 01-03-2004 03:59 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:08 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.