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Old 09-15-2012, 09:10 AM   #21
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So....where would you invest if you left the market due the recent run up and were anticipating a pull back?
Why would you go into anything but cash or government treasuries? If you really believe there's going to be a pull back (and your confident about your timing) switch to cash, wait for the crash and go all in.

I guess you could also do something similar with shorts/options too.
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Old 09-15-2012, 07:56 PM   #22
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And so it goes - round up the usual suspects. One camp believes that the debt deleveraging process will result in a prolonged deflationary process to work its way through the system. The opposite camp believes that the only solution to to the same mountain of debt is massive inflation - it makes debt cheaper. I guess the answer we prefer is backed into our individual DNA and this question will join the pantheon of those other universal questions with easy answers. Should I take SS at 62 or 70? should I pay off my mortgage or not? Should I buy an annuity or not? (just kidding on the last one...)
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Old 09-15-2012, 08:18 PM   #23
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There is no sure fire place to move your money to if things go south. I'm thinking the wisest thing to do is hold a broadly diversified portfolio with a proper asset allocation for your situation and hope for the best.
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Old 09-15-2012, 10:39 PM   #24
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The FED seems to be determined to support the mortgage market, buying mortgage paper. If you "Don't fight the FED", NLY, AGNC, DLTNX or TGMNX seem to be working. Also GNMS funds
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Old 09-16-2012, 12:31 AM   #25
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I recently added 20% real estate and reduced my exposure to stocks. Stocks appear to have run their course since the meltdown and will perform poorly in either economic scenario going forward (inflation/deflation). Real estate is still affordable, so it seemed like a good shift, especially in a possible inflationary environment. I don't know which direction we're headed, but I don't think it's a period of robust growth and normal pricing, so I'm under weighting stocks.

I still have 30% stock and 50% bonds/cash. I also went conservative on the stock, moving into mainly large-cap, high-dividend, value-oriented stuff. I'd like to reduce the bond exposure as well, but it seems less risky to me, given the deflationary possibility and the timeframe before rates are likely to turn up.
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Old 09-16-2012, 04:33 AM   #26
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im 60 and retiring in 2 years although we could pull the plug at any point.

i have been following the fidelity insight newsletter since 1987.

until about 5 or 6 years ago i followed the growth model and shifted over to the more conservative income and capital preservation model just before the downturn.

that model was typically about 30% equities with the balance being all different mixes of asset classes at times.

well this year after merging with fidelity monitor they changed over to a full income model and as of now we have less than 10% in equities and that 10% is only because some of the bond funds act more akin to stocks.

its about 70% less volatile than the s&p 500 and for now has little equities, but that can change off in the future.

we are getting a 3-4% yield and are up overall about 8% this year.

my projections show i need about 3% from savings from 62 to 66 and once ss kicks in ill need 2% so for us the model is perfect with low risk.
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Old 09-16-2012, 10:21 AM   #27
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mathjack, I'm of the mind to follow that strategy too. Mind if I ask what type of bond funds you're using to get that yield?

Also, and this may seem like a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway of you and anyone else that cares to respond: most bond funds are now at their highest price. Does it matter so much to invest while they're high, or should you just be more concerned with the rate of return, since being retired, one might be less inclined to worry about growth? (Hope that makes sense.)
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Old 09-16-2012, 12:50 PM   #28
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I don't have an alternative as IMO.

Question: When is a good time to invest in equities?

Answer: Always

As for what percent of my portfolio in equities, that's a different discussion .
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Old 09-16-2012, 03:14 PM   #29
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mathjack, I'm of the mind to follow that strategy too. Mind if I ask what type of bond funds you're using to get that yield?

Also, and this may seem like a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway of you and anyone else that cares to respond: most bond funds are now at their highest price. Does it matter so much to invest while they're high, or should you just be more concerned with the rate of return, since being retired, one might be less inclined to worry about growth? (Hope that makes sense.)

about the only thing i can really say since its a subscription we all pay for is its an assortment of bond funds that cover everything from international to corporate to high yield with some special unique situation bond funds thrown in......
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Old 09-16-2012, 07:50 PM   #30
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Buying stocks is passive,dealing wiith tenants is not.

The last thing i want to do through retirement is deal with tenants.

We have been liquidating our holdings the last decade in preperation for retirement.

We had 9 co-op apartments overlooking central park in nyc and are finally down to just 2 as we bought out our rent stabilized tenants leases at 50-100k each.

No matter how carefully you screen tenants eventually divorce,illness,or job loss gets them.

One thing about rentals is they are nice until they are not.

Couple leverage with rental income loss and the preassure can be horrible..
Mathjak107, I couldn't agree more. I inherited real estate when my parents passed, and it has been a nightmare of epic proportions. I would not wish being a landlord on my worst enemy. I know my father loved it, but I can't bear being sucked into their lives (which happens, whether you like it or not). It is inconceivable to me how some people live their lives.
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Old 09-17-2012, 03:39 AM   #31
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real estate is one of those things thats really great , until its not.

then depending what locality your in it can turn out a horror. here in nyc its awful going to court.

nothings a problem until its a problem.
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Old 09-17-2012, 07:25 AM   #32
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Question: When is a good time to invest in equities?

Answer: Always

As for what percent of my portfolio in equities, that's a different discussion .
Agreed !!!!
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