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Old 12-10-2014, 04:46 PM   #21
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Recently I researched a variable maturity bond strategy. Did well in up and down rate environments over the last 60 years. I might start a thread on this.
That would be interesting. But as the OP, I wouldn't mind if you use this thread to elaborate.
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Old 12-10-2014, 06:10 PM   #22
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That would be interesting. But as the OP, I wouldn't mind if you use this thread to elaborate.
I only needed your encouragement to spew out this stuff!

So I started a thread here with the details:
A long term strategy for bonds

I hope that some will take the time to analyze and critique this method. I've only put this method into a spreadsheet to check out the long term results. I've not invented something new.
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Old 12-12-2014, 03:14 PM   #23
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Well, lets see. After losing money on bonds last year in my 401K I went 100% stocks. Now I am up 13% for the year in the same 401K. I don't know what the bonds did, but I doubt they did 13%.

I have no plans to change back to money losing bonds. Well, I might look at them when they start paying 6% or so.
At this point in time the 30 year treasury is up 30% year to date, TLT 20 year + ETF is up 24 % in price with about a 3 percent payout for the year.
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Old 12-12-2014, 03:54 PM   #24
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At this point in time the 30 year treasury is up 30% year to date, TLT 20 year + ETF is up 24 % in price with about a 3 percent payout for the year.
And the S&P 500 is now only up 10% for the week.

My muni bond fund is up 10.5% YTD (not counting today yet).

If something loses money one year, that doesn't mean it will lose money the next. In fact, there may be a good chance it will recover, which is why rebalancing lowers volatility with its automatic method of trimming winners and adding to losers.
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Old 12-12-2014, 04:18 PM   #25
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At this point in time the 30 year treasury is up 30% year to date, TLT 20 year + ETF is up 24 % in price with about a 3 percent payout for the year.
Most all of the bond advocates tend toward intermediate term bonds so I do not know how much the 30 year applies. The interest rate risk there is pretty large.
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