Who do you trust?

[harley]

OP, you've made it this far into life and retirement by doing the wise thing, basically nothing. Why would you changes horses at this point of your life, when you've admitted you aren't quite what you once were? Turn off the TV, cancel the subscriptions, kick back, and enjoy life.

 

[OldShooter]

... So many pundits and respected people talking about "The Big Collapse of 2018-2019". Unbelievable how many articles and videos on the subject. Some by very respected financial folks.

IMO you have to consider the market that the chattering monkeys serve. Their market wants drama and bombast, so that's what they provide. If a pundit states an opinion that 2018 and 2019 will be about the same as the past two years, nothing different, he will get no television time and his web site will get no visitors and no clicks. Not even you will be reading it.

Also, Nate Silver ("the signal and the noise") points out that the "blue chip forecasters" have done slightly worse that forecasters' average scores because they must be dramatic in order to remain prominent.

Finally, consider confirmation bias (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) when you consider your survey of the punditry landscape. We all suffer from this.

 

[jollystomper]

This morning one of the well known financial news networks, whose call letters somewhat rhyme with "Please send me bees", had a BREAKING NEWS headline in bright red: DOW TO DROP 100 POINTS AT OPEN. Oh the horror!

These type of things point out to me why 99.9% of these folks are less interested in you trusting them, and are more interested in them scaring you.

 

[bw5972]

I just look at a chart like this of the "experts" comments.

https://goo.gl/images/kPf5uo

 

[Dtail]

I just look at a chart like this of the "experts" comments.

https://goo.gl/images/kPf5uo

Robert Wiedemer has a 100% record.......

 

[Rianne]

My niece, SR at U of I, Urbana-Champaign, grades taking 18 hours -1-B the rest A’s. She’s obsessed with the Kardashian’s, MTV reality TV. It’s entertainment for her, nothing else. That’s how I feel about watching financial talking heads, pure entertainment. Never took them seriously, never trusted them.

 

[pb4uski]

Sorry if my posts are viewed as fear mongering, please disregard my postings and I will excuse myself from this thread

That would be unfortunate, but just think before posting.... see if it passes the smell test.... there is a lot of fake news and fake analysis out there these days.

While we think of Russia as "big" because of the long cold war with the USSR, in reality they are a minor player (other than they have a bunch of nukes).... their GDP is about 8% of the US and they are in the neighborhood of Italy, Canada, South Korea, Austrailia, Spain and Mexico.

 

[Koolau]

That would be unfortunate, but just think before posting.... see if it passes the smell test.... there is a lot of fake news and fake analysis out there these days.

While we think of Russia as "big" because of the long cold war with the USSR, in reality they are a minor player (other than they have a bunch of nukes).... their GDP is about 8% of the US and they are in the neighborhood of Italy, Canada, South Korea, Austrailia, Spain and Mexico.

And Texas too, IIRC so YMMV.

 

[Lukeee]

My magic ball said the economy is robust and still growing in spite of tariff talk. UPS will not come anywhere close meet EPS consensus and if the market responds appropriately, should drop.

 

[Oz investor]

No need to leave the discussion, you're welcome to continue participating.

If anyone is going to present unorthodox views regarding macroeconomic events, it's very helpful to provide context and share the reasoning - that's what makes them valuable to the rest of us. It also is needed if we are to validate and assess their potential impact - how they affect us and whether or not we should act. or react.

+1

each of us is an individual

taking a deep breath and looking for a silver lining ( if any ) can be a big help

so can sitting on the sidelines watching and learning

 

[Rianne]

Remember this one? I like Mark Cuban, I think he's cute. But do you really think he sold everything in 2016? I think he's still a Billionaire.

Mark Cuban Predicts Stock Market Mayhem if Trump Wins the White House | Fortune

 

[kcowan]

.. I've been watching bitcoin, and Netflix and Google... shocker headlines and fluctuations, and predictions. Good and bad.

Am thinking it really is time to up the Prozac and turn off the TV. Back to Woodhaven to work on the seawall, and maybe to up the 1 and 1/2 oz. four o'clock martini to 2 ounces. Prosit!!!

Good actions. I would consider backing off FAANG holdings and any other holding where there is so much air in their P/E. But hang onto the dividend payers.

 

[kcowan]

Remember this one? I like Mark Cuban, I think he's cute. But do you really think he sold everything in 2016? I think he's still a Billionaire.

Mark Cuban Predicts Stock Market Mayhem if Trump Wins the White House | Fortune

Cuban got lucky with Paypal but has no other credentials. He tends to be a conservative investor as illustrated on Shark Tank. It always amazes me how the show participants covet his participation whereas FuBu and the women are truly savvy investors. O'Leary has his specialties but outside of that, he is very conservative too. I would venture that Barbara is the most astute.

But none of them has any edge on predicting the future as indicated by the referenced article.

 

[aja8888]

Cuban got lucky with Paypal but has no other credentials. He tends to be a conservative investor as illustrated on Shark Tank. It always amazes me how the show participants covet his participation whereas FuBu and the women are truly savvy investors. O'Leary has his specialties but outside of that, he is very conservative too. I would venture that Barbara is the most astute.

But none of them has any edge on predicting the future as indicated by the referenced article.

Cuban got rich on selling Broadcast.com. PayPal was Musk.

 

[Car-Guy]

I certainly don't trust much of the network news channels. I wish they'd just report the news both financial and world events, without as much of their opinions and/or spin. But still I listen and read and then weight what I pickup against my own values, philosophies and logic. I do put a little more weight on certain news networks (e.g. FOX) but even they are often too bias for me. This site is a good source of info/opinions but there are clear bias here too. (me too I'm sure). But a few have my ear. (Forum names withheld)

 

[FIREd]

I don’t watch the news and I don’t trust financial advisors. I DIY and invest in index funds, savings bonds, and CDs and forget about it. I do put a lot of trust in Uncle Sam’s credit worthiness though and hopefully it won’t become a blind spot.

 

[friar1610]

As is everything I've seen on tat site.

I did not watch the video. But I spent a bit of time reviewing the web site as I had never heard of Banyan Hill previously. But my reaction to the site was definitely not, 'Oh boy! This is the financial organization/web site I've been looking for all my life! I'm going to cast my lot with them and abandon my Vanguard 3-Fund portfolio + CDs + I-Bonds."

I may be sorry in the long run, but I don't think that this is the site/organization that I'll be taking advice from to get through retirement.

 

[imoldernu]

As many experts... as many opinions.
Hard to argue that any one of us is smarter than those who earn their living by managing money ... as a profession.

Still, IMHO, not an absolute reason to continue without at least looking at other possibilities. A 40 year lookback at the DJIA. is something to keep in mind, when looking at the future. and a simple statistic should be meaningful in developing a wider perspective of where we are as a nation, financially speaking. https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&tbm=fin&q=INDEXDJX:+.DJI&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRozC3w8sc9YSmtSWtOXmNU4eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLjYoOyeKS4uDj0c_UNkgsry3kAQ0pLYDgAAAA&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiDhv2q-7LcAhVM94MKHdy7Aq8Qlq4CCEAwAQ&biw=1152&bih=625#scso=uid_tZpUW-WdJJSzjwSAxrzQAQ_5:0

Four hundred individuals own more wealth than 164 million Americans.

US debt is rising exponentially.

A current article from peak prosperity brings some of the major perceived problems together. Whether to believe the article or not, is a choice, but at least, points to accept.... or not.

https://peakprosperity.com/blog/114209/america-insolvent

My own concern is based on the safety of the rules covering investment, and the risks that remain open for the manipulation of the markets. I just deleted a very long post covering the abrogation of SEC controls put into place back in 1934, and since changed many times. Very long and complex rules to prevent moneyed interests from manipulating the market through short term buying and selling .. think SEC rule 10B-18.

The most recent concern about the easing of controls comes from this letter:

https://www.baldwin.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Senators%20Letter%20to%20Clayton%20on%20Buyback%20Rules%20FINAL.SIGNED.6.28.18.pdf

The other oversimplified question that I have, is how the $ trillion increases in our National Debt over the past year have affected the current strong economy.
https://statista.com/statistics/273294/public-debt-of-the-united-states-by-month/

That and the interest we pay on our national debt.
https://thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024

So yeah, I know this sounds really negative, and flies in the face of a booming economy. I wish I could chalk it up to fake news, and perhaps it is... I just wish I was on the board of directors for AppLovin. Maybe I could join the 400.

Whether the market manipulation of 1929, or the housing bubble of 2008... the market changes came as a surprise to most investors. I believe that having some overview of the macro economy, might help... just in case.

edit to add... If I figured correctly, in the past ten years, while inflation has increased by 15%, the average American Citizen's part of the national debt dept has increased by 88%.

 

[Al18]

P/E ratio's of all FAANG stocks seem excessive - except for Apple. Apple, with a P/E ratio of 17.5 has been tracking lower than the S&P 500 average for the past few years.

 

[audreyh1]

As many experts... as many opinions.
Hard to argue that any one of us is smarter than those who earn their living by managing money ... as a profession.

Actually I think we can argue that. They’re still working. We’re not. We must have something going for us. If they are so smart at managing money, why aren’t they living off the windfall instead of still earning a living?

Oh - I guess they are managing other people’s money for one...

 

[RobbieB]

I have a new FA because the older guy retired.

 

[imoldernu]

Actually I think we can argue that. They’re still working. We’re not. We must have something going for us. If they are so smart at managing money, why aren’t they living off the windfall instead of still earning a living?

Oh - I guess they are managing other people’s money for one...

I wasn't clear... I was referring to the 400.

Not sure if they do it for $$$ or for fun.

 

[Nightcap]

"Trust no one, my friend, no one. Not your most grateful freedman. Not your most intimate friend. Not your dearest child. Not the wife of your bosom. Trust no one."

-- Herod to Claudius in "I, Claudius"

 

[CoolRich59]

Certainly not Marketwatch.com.

I used to go to that site just to check the market indices, but the site is always full of scaremongering headlines. Now, I go to WSJ.com to see what the markets are doing.

 

[audreyh1]

I wasn't clear... I was referring to the 400.

Not sure if they do it for $$$ or for fun.

The 400 richest people? Never mind.

They do it for something other than $$$. They aren't "earning a living" - they already have way more than they can spend in a lifetime.

OK - Ken Fisher is #200, worth $3.7B. Still doing "money management". I guess if your net worth is tied up in a company it's a little more complicated?
https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/list/5/#version:static