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Who is following Firecalc WR?
Old 11-30-2013, 01:10 PM   #1
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Who is following Firecalc WR?

I have seen many posts in which people are saying they spend only 3% of their total portfolio. I realize that people are being very conservative in their spending, but are there folks here who are spending close to what FireCalc says you can?


Just curious.
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Old 11-30-2013, 01:26 PM   #2
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I think you need to put some specifics in there. You'll get people answering for 30 years, or 25, 35 or 40, and 95% success, or 90% or 100%. FireCalc will provide different % for different combos.

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Old 11-30-2013, 01:40 PM   #3
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Sure, I meant with the default 95% success rate or even 100% success rate regardless of how many years you will be spending in retirement. I just want to see if anybody is using the given numbers from Firecalc as the basis for expenditures.
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Old 11-30-2013, 02:44 PM   #4
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For someone who is less than ultra-conservative in their spending, I think the amount suggested by FIRECalc would probably be perfectly fine. That is not me; I spend less than half.
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:02 PM   #5
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....I guess I am a belt-and-suspenders kind of gal.
You sound like my kind of gal

Where was I?

Oh yes, the OP.... Nope, forgot what I was going to say, can't get suspenders out of my mind
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:10 PM   #6
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You sound like my kind of gal

Where was I?

Oh yes, the OP.... Nope, forgot what I was going to say, can't get suspenders out of my mind
Heh, heh, must be a "British" thing (or so I've heard).
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:14 PM   #7
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You sound like my kind of gal

Where was I?

Oh yes, the OP.... Nope, forgot what I was going to say, can't get suspenders out of my mind
LOL!! I didn't know you picked up on the suspenders (or had even posted) and I deleted most of my post, including the suspenders, because I thought what I had said was boring and off topic. Oh well! But you know I *AM* a belt and suspenders kind of gal.
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:16 PM   #8
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You sound like my kind of gal Where was I? Oh yes, the OP.... Nope, forgot what I was going to say, can't get suspenders out of my mind
Sure, they hold up the knickers, right?



image-372063669.jpg
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:17 PM   #9
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But seriously, if that's now possible, I've said it before (and if I should live so long) I'll say it again. I ONLY used FIRECALC for planning. IOW, I determined that I COULD retire, based on what FIRECALC told me. Once I retired, I played it more by ear. (Down market, etc. - spend less. Up market, spend more) Haven't really played much with FIRECALC since then, to be honest. But, to digress, I am ALSO a belt and suspenders kind of guy (back ups to my back ups). Sorry Alan if that ruins it for ya. YMMV
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:19 PM   #10
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More like this, maybe? I don't see a belt, though.
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File Type: jpg suspenders.jpg (16.3 KB, 357 views)
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:20 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99 View Post
I have seen many posts in which people are saying they spend only 3% of their total portfolio. I realize that people are being very conservative in their spending, but are there folks here who are spending close to what FireCalc says you can?


Just curious.
That's because many people here are retiring way earlier than 65 and potentially looking at a 40 to 50 year retirement period rather than the 30 year period used in most studies.
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:28 PM   #12
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Sure, they hold up the knickers, right?
They keep things upright.
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:46 PM   #13
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Sure, they hold up the knickers, right?



Attachment 17576


well.... not quite what was in my mind...
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:47 PM   #14
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More like this, maybe? I don't see a belt, though.


getting closer
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Old 11-30-2013, 03:48 PM   #15
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They keep things upright.


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Old 11-30-2013, 03:56 PM   #16
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That's because many people here are retiring way earlier than 65 and potentially looking at a 40 to 50 year retirement period rather than the 30 year period used in most studies.
That, plus the default in FC is 95% success. So maybe this is being 'conservative', but I can't see building a plan with a known 5% failure rate, when there are added unknowns.

100% success and a 45 year period gets you to ~ 3.23% HSWR (Historically Safe Withdraw Rate).

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Old 11-30-2013, 04:41 PM   #17
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I'm pretty close to following one of the FireCalc scenarios I've created over the years. It's a very conservative scenario by most standards. By "conservative" I mean:

1. The end value is not zero. I took the FireCalc option of having a desired minimum ending value set at the amount I'd like to see the kids get when the second of us passes.

2. "Other sources of income" are stated in discounted numbers. We're confident that my SS and DW's Illinois public pension will not survive the idiocy of our politicians.

3. Our estimated spending number includes some discretionary spending.

4. Our initial portfolio doesn't reflect the nice gains we've had this year.

5. Our desired success rate is 100%.

6. Certain commitments, such as a trust for our special needs grandson, have already been taken care of and are not part of the FireCalc equation.

So, yes, with those stipulations in mind, we're pretty close to spending what FireCalc says we can and still have a 100% survival rate. FireCalc is pretty flexible.
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Old 11-30-2013, 05:50 PM   #18
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I use Firecalc as a tool, but not a script.
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Old 11-30-2013, 05:55 PM   #19
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I used Firecalc to decide whether I could ER at 55 yrs old. The rest of my financial life is embedded in my spreadsheet. I can insert any interest rate growth and withdraw scenario I want.
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Old 11-30-2013, 06:03 PM   #20
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My portfolio is not the same as what I can try on FIRECalc. My expenses are also not fixed and vary from year to year.

From FIRECalc, I saw that 3.5% WR was a reasonable guide. SS is our reserve safety factor, whenever we claim it. That should do. If not, I can cut some expenses.

In the last 12 months, I spent 3.2%. I could cut out the 0.5% for gifts and charities, and get down to 2.7%. When we claim SS, that should easily knock down another 1% or more in WR.
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