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I keep seeing stories like this from Bloomberg
"Prices for credit-default swaps that pay investors if MBIA can't meet its debt obligations imply a 71 percent chance it will default in the next five years, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. valuation model. Contacts on Ambac imply 72 percent odds."
Or this from The Australian:
"Premiums on credit default swaps have been rising, adding fresh pressure to funding costs. At Bear Stearns, for example, credit default swaps have risen from about 20 basis points in the middle of last year to 230 basis points. At Citigroup, they have gone from about 7 basis points to 90 basis points."
Who is selling these credit default swaps? If Citygroup, the largest bank in the country, goes belly up, the financial system is obviously in major trouble. Who could you trust to guarantee payment of Citygroup's bonds?
How big is the credit default market? Are we likely to see cascading defaults caused by closed loops (or more complex closed webs) where Company A insures the bonds of Company B who insures the bonds of Company C who insures the bonds of Company A?
ExHermit
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