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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:01 PM   #21
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by d
more likely we should be thanking Abby Joseph Cohen who said yesterday that the S&P is cruisin' to 1400 -- and that the fed is unlikely to derail that. "The fact that people are quibbling over whether they are going to do one more or two more .... in terms of the intermediate to longer-term outlook, it doesn't really matter." she does not expect the fed to overshoot. (hope she's right!)
She was quite a reliable forecaster back in 1999-2000. Not.* :P

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:02 PM   #22
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
What I cannot understand is why 20 somethings and 30 somethings are glad the market is going up. They are all investing. They should be hoping for a terrible bear market.* Buying stocks at a deep discount! They might have only a few hundred grand in the market, but rejoice when it goes up and they have to pay higher prices.* They should run a few spreadsheets.
If you're only 5 years away from retirement, what should you be hoping for? *Theory says it's best to retire into a bull market, so does that mean I should be hoping for an extended bear market now, even though it could reduce my net worth substantially and make me question early retirement altogether?
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:05 PM   #23
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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She was quite a reliable forecaster back in 1999-2000. Not.
like most forecasters ... what counts in this case at least, is that folks listen to her. remember Joe Granville?
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:12 PM   #24
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by IBWino
If you're only 5 years away from retirement, what should you be hoping for?
How about a RIF and huge severance package? Would have worked for me...

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:20 PM   #25
 
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by IBWino
If you're only 5 years away from retirement, what should you be hoping for? Theory says it's best to retire into a bull market, so does that mean I should be hoping for an extended bear market now, even though it could reduce my net worth substantially and make me question early retirement altogether?
Better now than 5 years from now! - You are still buying stocks now, right? And not withdrawing from your portfoilo, right? - Do the math!
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:29 PM   #26
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...eUSmarket.aspx

this actually makes sense to me. if this is correct we have to expect more problems this year.
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 05:42 PM   #27
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
How about a RIF and huge severance package? * Would have worked for me...
That would work for me too, but it's not likely. *I've got a pretty good deal right now, paid six figures and get to work from home. *The work can be mind numbing at times, but I can always take my notebook out on our deck and enjoy the fresh air while I pretend to work.

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Better now than 5 years from now! - You are still buying stocks now, right? And not withdrawing from your portfoilo, right? - Do the math!
Yah, still maxing out my 401k and DCA'ing into a Vanguard account. *I've read the books and understand the math, but it's still hard to root for a bear market when you feel like you're so close to freedom. *However, if the market heads south in five years, it won't be a problem to postpone retirement a couple of years and hope for a recovery.
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 07:52 PM   #28
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

I was feeling bad about "losing" $75,000. Then I realized what a small percentage of our portfolio it is. 5.5%--OK, not chump change, and more than we'd use as our withdrawal rate , but not a fortune. Plus, we're still up on the year...eh, 2.5%, but the year is young<ish>, and better up than down! And meanwhile I replaced expiring CDs with higher-rate CDs, continued to receive dividends and higher interest on MM accounts, and continued to be diversified. I'm content to remain here at 55% stocks while we're in Italy for about a month--and the last thing I'll want to think about in Italy is finances!
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 11:02 PM   #29
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

Well I am in my 30ties and FIREd so just keep that market going up. Cheers!
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 11:51 PM   #30
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
What I cannot understand is why 20 somethings and 30 somethings are glad the market is going up. They are all investing. They should be hoping for a terrible bear market.* Buying stocks at a deep discount! They might have only a few hundred grand in the market, but rejoice when it goes up and they have to pay higher prices.* They should run a few spreadsheets.
I was happy about the drop in the market. I've been waiting for months to buy a particular stock. I determined $60/share was the price I would buy it at. It was trading at $73/share a month ago. I watched daily as it trickled down a little at a time and finally the night before last it hit $60.xx/share. I put in my order hoping I didn't strike too soon. I guess my timing was right as it closed today at $63/share.

Ok, I bought the stock I wanted, now the market can go back up*
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-15-2006, 11:54 PM   #31
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

The last six weeks have been depressing! I tend to stop viewing my investments when they drop like this. I have lost ten percent.

But then I started secretly hoping that we have bear market to help make my earning years really count. I guess that is, if it doesn't cause me to loose my job.

Fortunaly my Chinese stocks are still up forty percent. Good thing I have them in my portfolio.

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 05:57 AM   #32
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by astromeria
I was feeling bad about "losing" $75,000.
It's merely decline in vaue - not a loss until it is sold.
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 06:12 AM   #33
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by rw86347
The last six weeks have been depressing! I tend to stop viewing my investments when they drop like this. I have lost ten percent.
I tend to do the same thing, but really try to force myself to update quicken even on the bad days. But I certainly avoid it where possible during bad times.
I actually did a silly calc late yesterday, If the market contines for 16 days just like yesterday, then I'll BE FIRE!

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 06:47 AM   #34
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

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Originally Posted by Spanky
It's merely decline in vaue - not a loss until it is sold.
That's why I put "losing" in quotes
But I kinda disagree with you. Just becasue I haven't sold my 8-yr-old car, doesn't mean it hasn't lost value On the other hand, my loser funds are apt to pop back up eventually (starting yesterday-), while my car...well, unless used 4Runners become flavor of the month, it willl only continue to lose value. Likewise, just because I'm not liquidating everything today, doesn't mean my net worth isn't what it is today instead of what it was a month ago. I understand that what I look at is a snapshot in the river of time.

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 07:40 AM   #35
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

Well, yesterday was a nice little reprieve. Once I added it all up, i'm up about $7,600 for the day. I just try not to dwell on the ~$34,400 that it tumbled before that. :
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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 11:07 AM   #36
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

I like your thinking.* For me, it will take 29.52468 days like yesterday, but who's counting?

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Originally Posted by Daddy O
I actually did a silly calc late yesterday, If the market contines for 16 days* just like yesterday, then I'll BE FIRE!

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Re: Who's watching the market today?
Old 06-16-2006, 11:21 AM   #37
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Re: Who's watching the market today?

I'm a bit further away than that, but I figure if the market continues like it did yesterday, I'd be at my magical kiss-this-job-goodbye number in 46 days!
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