Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-16-2008, 09:00 PM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by cashflo2u2 View Post
Maybe I overstated the case with "thrown away" but it looks like indiscriminate selling. There is very little hard data to indicate recession I think. Even so, should there be this much fright over an event that they say you don't even know you been through it till after its over??
consumer spending growth is very weak and the christmas season was very weak as well. bad housing market means no demand for all kinds of stuff people would buy when they buy a house
__________________

__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-17-2008, 10:04 AM   #22
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 332
Listen to Beranke today and I can see how somebody would jettison stocks
__________________

__________________
cashflo2u2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2008, 03:06 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,256
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRR View Post
Last year we had two 10%+ declines and my portfolio ended up over 13%. The rallies were fast and furious with no logical warning.
Just to be correct... there were not two declines of 10%+... this current decline (which is over 10%) broke the second longest time period without a 10% decline... so it could not be two of them... close.. but not quite there...
__________________
Texas Proud is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2008, 03:25 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 5,459
One of the really good things about not having much money in the stock market is that it has allowed me to make several purchases this month to keep our total amount invested greater than it was last year. Getting a bit better diversification too. Not that it's smart, but we've always tended to see which way the crowd is surging , then wander off in a different direction. Never was much for crowds.
__________________
calmloki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2008, 03:30 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
twaddle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,378
You're right about crowds. In fact, the equity put / call ratio currently implies that investors are very bearish, which is usually very bullish for stocks. At least in the short term.
__________________
twaddle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-17-2008, 09:23 PM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 183
Some of the posters of this thread crack me up

If you had a proper asset allocation for your willingness, need, and ability to take risk you wouldn't engage in pointless and damaging market timing strategies.

To those who sell and move to cash based on what you're reading in the paper: You missed the top, and you'll surely miss the bottom. Historical evidence for this is stacked incredibly against you. Might want to spend a little more time at Guide to the Vanguard Diehards Forums and get the religion.

If you're not comfortable with your plan, you need a better plan.

I'm looking forward to my 10% off coupon turning into a 20% off coupon. Bring on the bears! I'm stocking up the pantry!!!
__________________
innova is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 07:48 AM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by innova View Post
Some of the posters of this thread crack me up

If you had a proper asset allocation for your willingness, need, and ability to take risk you wouldn't engage in pointless and damaging market timing strategies.

To those who sell and move to cash based on what you're reading in the paper: You missed the top, and you'll surely miss the bottom. Historical evidence for this is stacked incredibly against you. Might want to spend a little more time at Guide to the Vanguard Diehards Forums and get the religion.

If you're not comfortable with your plan, you need a better plan.

I'm looking forward to my 10% off coupon turning into a 20% off coupon. Bring on the bears! I'm stocking up the pantry!!!
LOL innova, you better get your flamesuit on.
... 1/2 the people are going to try and convince you their antics are NOT Market Timing. The others who under normal (upward sloping market advance lines) conditions profess to NOT be market timers are now talking about how to protect their portfolios.
This has turned into another retirement hobby of mine (watching the ship empty when we start going into a trough).
__________________
Life is GREAT!
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 09:25 AM   #28
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 183
Suited up

Its my opinion that most people that respond to market declines do not really have a plan. Its much easier to work your plan when your signed IPS (investment policy statement) is staring you in the face.

Proper protection comes from a proper asset allocation, including an appropriate allocation to fixed income investments - not market timing.

In times like these, works by Bogle, Bernstein, Swedroe and others may give comfort.
__________________
innova is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:26 AM   #29
Full time employment: Posting here.
Retire Soon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
For the time being, I will leave my stock/bond allocation the way it is. We're already in a bear market in small stocks. I expect midcaps and large-caps to follow in the near future. When I hear friends and relatives complaining about all the money they've lost in the stock market and some even promising they'll never invest in equities again, I'll know it's time to increase my stock allocation by 5-10%. Until that time, I will Stay the course.
__________________
Retire Soon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:39 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
I'm leaving my allocation alone, but I am buying right now.
I certainly am not selling that would be a loosing proposition.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:41 AM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
Just to be correct... there were not two declines of 10%+... this current decline (which is over 10%) broke the second longest time period without a 10% decline... so it could not be two of them... close.. but not quite there...
Just to be correct, depends on how you count and the index:

S&P 500

July 17th High 1555
Aug 16th Low 1371

Decline of 11.8%

Oct 11th High 1576
Nov 27th Low 1407

Decline of 10.7%

YMMV if you prefer closing numbers
__________________
David

I get up at 7 yeah, and I go to work at 9. Got no time for livin yes I'm workin all the time. Seems to me I could live my life a lot better than I think I am. I guess thats why they call me the Working Man.
DJRR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 11:57 AM   #32
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 284
These last 3 months have been an excellent tutorial for me about realistically assessing my risk tolerance.

It appears that many have far less risk tolerance than they thought.
__________________
A854321 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:21 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by A854321 View Post
These last 3 months have been an excellent tutorial for me about realistically assessing my risk tolerance.

It appears that many have far less risk tolerance than they thought.
Isn't that the truth!

I have found that I am fine. But then I came from a position of 100% equities (being a degenerate gambler by nature) and after having taken the proverbial bath in 2000, this is nothing (now 60/40 equities/income producing).
However the biggest difference is that I am now retired. I find that times like this are the real test of whether or not you have the right AA for your risk tolerence. Everyone is ok in a rising market. It's when we get to points like this that you really learn if your AA is outta whack.

I agree with you ... if you find you are toying with 'market timing', it may be because your AA is incorrectly set for your risk tolerence level.

A lesson to be learned ?
__________________
Life is GREAT!
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:32 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,456
This sell off is happening so fast that I am almost out of balance again even though I brought my portfolio close to balance on Jan 3.

If so, this is going to be the fastest I have ever rebalanced.

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2008, 10:47 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
This sell off is happening so fast that I am almost out of balance again even though I brought my portfolio close to balance on Jan 3.

If so, this is going to be the fastest I have ever rebalanced.

Audrey
Are you in volitile stocks? It seems that the market should not have moved you out of balance that much (yet).
__________________
Life is GREAT!
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2008, 04:21 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,456
Quote:
Originally Posted by megacorp-firee View Post
Are you in volitile stocks? It seems that the market should not have moved you out of balance that much (yet).
I have a goodly percentage in equities (58%). My bond funds have appreciated as well, so that exacerbates the out-of-balance situation.

Maybe my out-of-balance tolerance window is tight (5%), but that works for me. A drop of 8.5% in equities means my equities are down 5% with respect to the rest of the portfolio. Most of my equity funds are already down that much YTD.

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2008, 04:41 PM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
2/3 Superbowl, 2/5 Mardis Gras, after that - may be too early for Spring or Kayaks - sooo maybe take some mad money and demonstrate the effect of hormones by trying to catch some falling knives - er ah while calling it betting on RTM:

BAC, USB, Walmart, psssst Budweiser, a little of this a tad of that - hope springs eternal - greed is good.

Of course if Dick's in Kansas City has an early bird sale on kayaks - all bets are off.

But NO plans to relearn how to hit a stupid little white ball around a manicured ex cow pasture into a little hole - stocks are more fun, fearful, hopeful and I don't throw anything when things don't work out.

Balanced index - auto rebalnce, auto asset selection, auto deduct to checking for real money(aka retirement).

Then a little mad money for those male hormones - incurable but with management - the disease can be controled - er most of the time, sort of - plus after forty years the brain pharts/legend in my own mind attacks aren't as intense.

heh heh heh - 85% Target Retirement, 15% individual stocks, .
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2008, 04:58 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
None of my stocks have had a dividend cut. So my income next year is unaffected, other than a modest drop in interest rates on my money market funds. In fact, I've take advantage of the sales on stocks to increase my future income streams by selling a TIPs and purchasing high yielding stocks.

So far this year KMP has raised dividend from .88/qtr to .92/qtr with plans for $1/qtr.
Even a bank like BB&T has said they plan to raise dividends later this year for the 37th consecutive year.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2008, 07:30 PM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
free4now's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,225
Quote:
Originally Posted by danm View Post
There are studies which show that sitting out bear markets puts you way ahead of a buy and hold - no surprise.
I used to engage in a mechanical market timing strategy that consistently beat buy and hold by a small margin on historical data. I stopped when I realized that there was one problem: there were a few failure modes like extended sideways markets where it would trail buy and hold by a huge margin. Those failure modes hadn't happenned yet, but that was just a historical accident.

I see this over and over when I evaluate trading strategies. Lots of strategies will beat buy and hold most years, but have flaming failures every once in a while when they lose big time. Or they will have frictional costs that quietly add up to big losses over time.

I've done enough trading to learn that staying put is the way to go.
__________________
free4now is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2008, 11:13 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 109
I'm 100% equities, with about 30% of that international. I'm pretty relaxed because I'm 46 and working. My parents are probably experiencing a bit more angst in 2008. I do wish I had some cash to throw at equities (if it slips below 12 next week, I would jump in with everything I had). I hope this lasts a while because that improves my DCA over the long haul.

My fallback position is that if the whole thing goes up in flames, the only thing worth owning will be food, water, and ammo, anyhow.
__________________

__________________
Gazingus is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
individual stocks vs index funds,stocks poor choice mathjak107 FIRE and Money 31 09-12-2006 01:12 AM
Why Do Stocks Go Up? wabmester FIRE and Money 75 08-14-2006 12:17 PM
DC, MD, DE, PA and NY people get together?? Enuff2Eat FIRE and Money 7 03-07-2006 10:45 AM
The value of Stocks jefipius FIRE and Money 27 04-17-2004 03:01 PM
What do you tell people you do? farmerEd Life after FIRE 49 03-11-2004 10:30 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:06 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.