Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Why it Might be Different This Time
Old 02-02-2009, 07:52 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,197
Why it Might be Different This Time

Paul Farrell article.

Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.
__________________

__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-02-2009, 08:07 PM   #2
Moderator Emeritus
Khan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pine Island, Florida
Posts: 6,868
Send a message via AIM to Khan
6.5 billion people + peak oil = bad stuff.
__________________

__________________
"Knowin' no one nowhere's gonna miss us when we're gone..."
Khan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 08:22 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Paul Farrell article.

Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.
Yet another doom and gloom, "end of the world as we know it" article.

Far be it for someone as bitter as I am to get all Pollyanna about things, but look at the bright side:

1) Requiring or "encouraging" suicide at 70 will moot so many of our "but will my money last?" worries, even given the recent downturn. FIRE is now ours! Three cheers!

2) A complementary and much more entertaining means of solving the problem is at hand right in front of us. We, like Japan and a wide range of other maturing countries, are suffering from a lack of younger folk to take up the yoke. Therefore, we will now be required to procreate like bunnies!
__________________
Grep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 08:32 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,076
Paul Farrell is the King of Gloom and Doom. I've said it before but I'm convinced he has significant investments in the black paint industry.

In case you doubt me, here's a sample of his last few articles:


Paul B. Farrell: Bad bank for toxic debt is one more Wall Street 'Lost' cause

Paul B. Farrell: Five reasons the population boom is the biggest economic crisis

Paul B. Farrell: Take this test to see how you'll survive the next big meltdown

Paul B. Farrell: Don't be conned into thinking there will be a recovery in '09

Paul B. Farrell: 15 reminders that Wall Street's con game goes on 10 years later

Paul B. Farrell: You'll need this 'Noah's Ark' survival kit to stay afloat in 2009

Paul B. Farrell: 15 economic tales that will haunt you this Christmas and beyond
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 08:41 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Amazon.com: Planet of Slums: Mike Davis: Books

Urban theorist Davis takes a global approach to documenting the astonishing depth of squalid poverty that dominates the lives of the planet's increasingly urban population, detailing poor urban communities from Cape Town and Caracas to Casablanca and Khartoum. Davis argues health, justice and social issues associated with gargantuan slums (the largest, in Mexico City, has an estimated population of 4 million) get overlooked in world politics: "The demonizing rhetorics of the various international 'wars' on terrorism, drugs, and crime are so much semantic apartheid: they construct epistemological walls around gecekondus, favelas, and chawls that disable any honest debate about the daily violence of economic exclusion." Though Davis focuses on individual communities, he presents statistics showing the skyrocketing population and number of "megaslums" (informally, "stinking mountains of ****" or, formally, "when shanty-towns and squatter communities merge in continuous belts of informal housing and poverty, usually on the urban periphery") since the 1960s. Layered over the hard numbers are a fascinating grid of specific area studies and sub-topics ranging from how the Olympics has spurred the forceful relocation of thousands (and, sometimes, hundreds of thousands) of the urban poor, to the conversion of formerly second world countries to third world status. Davis paints a bleak picture of the upward trend in urbanization and maintains a stark outlook for slum-dwellers' futures.
++++++
Al's right with this one.
I think I and those older than me will do OK.

The biggest bubble is population growing from 1B in 1910 to 10 B in 2050.
USA is estimated to be 400m in 2050. That's why I'm not worried about the real estate market.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 09:35 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
Amazon.com: Planet of Slums: Mike Davis: Books

The biggest bubble is population growing from 1B in 1910 to 10 B in 2050.
Not going to happen. Starvation or disease will intervene first.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 09:42 PM   #7
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
I did my part for ZPG.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-02-2009, 11:17 PM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Yes, population is the core problem that, unless confronted and dealt with, will render all solutions to all other problems irrelevant. Population is the one variable in an economic equation that impacts, aggravates, irritates and accelerates all other problems.
Cognitive dissonance: People are sure that the stock markets will never rise again but apparently have no problem believing that world population will hit 10B.
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 07:06 AM   #9
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha View Post
I did my part for ZPG.
Me, too. My two brothers and I had a total of two boys and a girl, thus simultaneously carrying on the family line and meeting ZPG.

My parents' generation was where the population explosion in my family occurred. Eight kids had a total of 26 children during the baby boom years.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 09:19 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
U.S. and World Population Clocks - POPClocks


http://www.un.org/esa/population/pub...lights_rev.pdf
According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion
over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the overall number of people in the world in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by
the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9
billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net
migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million
persons a year after 2010.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 09:56 AM   #11
Moderator Emeritus
Martha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
U.S. and World Population Clocks - POPClocks


http://www.un.org/esa/population/pub...lights_rev.pdf
According to the 2006 Revision, the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion
over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is
equivalent to the overall number of people in the world in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by
the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9
billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain
largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net
migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million
persons a year after 2010.
Fertility rates go down when a population is less hungry and less poor. Just like gardening, stressed plants produce more seed.
__________________
.


No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA

Martha is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:46 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
I have no children. So if anyone out there wants to pick up my slack and get pregnant...go for it....
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 10:52 AM   #13
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,841
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbamI View Post
I have no children. So if anyone out there wants to pick up my slack and get pregnant...go for it....
Gee, thanks, but, er.... no thanks!
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 11:01 AM   #14
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,423
Try as hard as we can, after all the bankruptcies, foreclosures, layoffs, TARPs and everything else, the US will still be the most prosperous country in the world, our currency will be the standard for world trade, our universities will provide the best education and the best and brightest from ‘round the world will want to come here to learn, work, compete freely, live – and contribute to our growing population.

The veil of gloom affects short distance viewing. People need to learn to look beyond that. When this current crisis is behind us I see a much healthier and more competitive US, and am much more optimistic for the future of my children.

Michael
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 01:52 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,913
Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Consider the impact of European diseases like Small Pox on the American Native peoples. They lost 80% of their communities by many accounts.

I think the future for the US & Canada are better than the rest of the world and we are better equipped to deal with humanities mess-ups.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 02:15 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The veil of gloom affects short distance viewing. People need to learn to look beyond that. When this current crisis is behind us I see a much healthier and more competitive US, and am much more optimistic for the future of my children.

I keep trying to go with the optimistic view of our collective future vs. population growth. It seems like technology and a population educated about the need for ZPG should be able to bring us to some sort of reasonable stability. Yet there is nothing in history to indicate that will happen as opposed to population control via war, famine or disease.

I live in suburban Chicago. During the recent doubling of the population of the five county metropolitan area, I watched urban sprawl grow from the Chicago city limits to 40 - 50 miles from the borders in all directions (except where limited by Lake Michigan.) The farmland my dad and I used to hunt pheasants and rabbits on just 30 mins west of our home on the northwest side is now office towers, strip malls and dense housing.

I think we're coping with the growth reasonably well. It's just hard to imagine what things will be like with 2 or 3 more doublings of the population....... Chicagoans will have to travel 100+ miles to see a vacant lot. I won't have to worry about it but I hope the kids and grandkids develop the ability to find peace and solitude while dwelling shoulder to shoulder with the masses.
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 02:33 PM   #17
Recycles dryer sheets
mark500's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 146
Remember Dow 30,000? and New Economy, it's different this time? Opposite hyperbole.
__________________
The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of misery.

Winston Churchill
mark500 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 02:41 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,434
Yes, I don't go CBS MarketWatch anymore because of him. Don't watch CNBC anymore either.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 02:49 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Consider the impact of European diseases like Small Pox on the American Native peoples. They lost 80% of their communities by many accounts.

I think the future for the US & Canada are better than the rest of the world and we are better equipped to deal with humanities mess-ups.
I'm guessing the disease would need to be a some type of new disease. The Spanish Flu killed about 60million or about 6% of the world population. WWII killed about 60million world wide 3%(?). 6% of today's population would be about 420M a speed bump in population growth.

A 50% death rate would put us into the dark ages.

The Black Death, 1348
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2009, 03:01 PM   #20
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
I'm guessing the disease would need to be a some type of new disease. The Spanish Flu killed about 60million or about 6% of the world population. WWII killed about 60million world wide 3%(?). 6% of today's population would be about 420M a speed bump in population growth.
Could be. I don't think it would be like the plague, though, which was bacterial. Anything that comes along and wipes out a large percentage of the world population will likely be viral in the age of antibiotics.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
full-time vs. part-time tradeoff WM Young Dreamers 14 01-18-2007 06:39 PM
Part time to no time Martha Life after FIRE 54 12-08-2006 11:29 PM
long time lurker, first time poster grateful Hi, I am... 1 09-19-2006 07:28 PM
As time goes by.............. JOhn Galt Life after FIRE 8 02-12-2005 07:02 PM
What time do YOU get up? dory36 Life after FIRE 8 02-19-2003 05:35 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:09 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.