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Old 06-01-2010, 10:43 PM   #41
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hate to beat the same drum...but gold and some other some hard assets are off of the radar.
Gold is only off someone's radar if he resides in a cemetery.

Might be a fine investment, but off the radar
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Old 06-02-2010, 08:00 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by rayvt View Post

Create this spreadsheet and the results are astounding.
For me, assuming 2% SS COLA and 0% (zero percent) earrnings on the saving account, the BEP was at age 81. 19 years.
At 4% earnings, the BEP was age 89. 27 years.

Plus, when you refile you are starting clean. If you die the next day all the money is gone and you wll have collected nothing. OTOH, if you start early with the side savings account, whenever you die the savings account is still there, for your spouse/heirs to keep.
My spreadsheet gave a slightly different answer. Did you remember to inflate the benefit at NRA? (For example, suppose that at 62 your "full" benefit is $10,000 per year and your early benefit is $7,500. If you take the $7,500 now, it will be $8,118 when you get to age 66. If you wait until 66 to start, your initial benefit is $10,824, not $10,000.)
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Old 06-02-2010, 08:13 AM   #43
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All this ink over nada. The rules are almost certain to change in the next few years. How can you game the system when you don't know the rules ?
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Old 06-02-2010, 08:43 AM   #44
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All this ink over nada. The rules are almost certain to change in the next few years. How can you game the system when you don't know the rules ?
How true. Then again, do you really trust a thread whose OP tells you what you should ALWAYS do ?
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Old 06-02-2010, 09:03 AM   #45
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...do you really trust a thread whose OP tells you what you should ALWAYS do ?
Sort of sounds like religion ...
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Old 06-02-2010, 10:41 AM   #46
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My spreadsheet gave a slightly different answer. Did you remember to inflate the benefit at NRA? (For example, suppose that at 62 your "full" benefit is $10,000 per year and your early benefit is $7,500. If you take the $7,500 now, it will be $8,118 when you get to age 66. If you wait until 66 to start, your initial benefit is $10,824, not $10,000.)
Ah, I see what you did. I did only part of it. And I made a simplifying assumption
You applied a 2% COLA to the early amount starting at age 62, in which case at age 66 it will be $677/mo. You did the same for the reported FRA benefit, so that when SSA says (today) it will be 833/mo, you assume that the FRA benefit will also grow by 2% COLA, so that when you actually get to 66 the FRA benefit will have ballooned to 902/mo. Clever--I didn't think about that. I applied the COLA only after the checks began--either age 62 or age 66.

Interestingly, the thing I checked by spreadsheet against (
http://web.bryant.edu/~rmuksian/text...62vsNormal.xls
) _also_ applies COLA only after the checks begin. So maybe both him and me made this mistake.

If it is a mistake.
When I compare what SSA sent to me on Feb 2008 vs. Feb 2009, my 2009 age early (62) payment was 3.1% higher that the 2008 number, but FRA (66) payment was only 1.2% higher. How can this be? Shouldn't these have gone up by the same percentage? Indeed, shouldn't the 66 amount have gone up even more due to compounding? To further confuse me, the 2008 COLA was 5.8% and the 2009 COLA was 0.0%. So where did the 3.1% come from? Certainly nothing else has changed---I'll still have turned 62 on the same date, and have turned 66 on the same date, and I've hit the caps.

Arrrggghhh! They also said that if I deferred to age 70, the difference between the 2008 amount and the 2009 amount was $3/mo or 0.1%.

BTW, my simplifying assumption was that the COLA gets applied monthly rather than annually. At low rates, this does not introduce much of an error.
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Old 06-02-2010, 11:26 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by haha View Post
Gold is only off someone's radar if he resides in a cemetery.

Might be a fine investment, but off the radar
it is off the radar. nobody knows what's in that shoebox....or buried in your backyard

compare this to the "total information awareness" the feds have on paper and real estate.
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Old 06-02-2010, 11:30 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by endthefed View Post
it is off the radar. nobody knows what's in that shoebox....or buried in your backyard

compare this to the "total information awareness" the feds have on paper and real estate.
Oh, I see what you mean. I misunderstood your meaning.
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Old 06-02-2010, 01:31 PM   #49
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Ah, I see what you did. I did only part of it. And I made a simplifying assumption
You applied a 2% COLA to the early amount starting at age 62, in which case at age 66 it will be $677/mo. You did the same for the reported FRA benefit, so that when SSA says (today) it will be 833/mo, you assume that the FRA benefit will also grow by 2% COLA, so that when you actually get to 66 the FRA benefit will have ballooned to 902/mo. Clever--I didn't think about that. I applied the COLA only after the checks began--either age 62 or age 66.

Interestingly, the thing I checked by spreadsheet against (
http://web.bryant.edu/~rmuksian/text...62vsNormal.xls
) _also_ applies COLA only after the checks begin. So maybe both him and me made this mistake.

If it is a mistake.
When I compare what SSA sent to me on Feb 2008 vs. Feb 2009, my 2009 age early (62) payment was 3.1% higher that the 2008 number, but FRA (66) payment was only 1.2% higher. How can this be? Shouldn't these have gone up by the same percentage? Indeed, shouldn't the 66 amount have gone up even more due to compounding? To further confuse me, the 2008 COLA was 5.8% and the 2009 COLA was 0.0%. So where did the 3.1% come from? Certainly nothing else has changed---I'll still have turned 62 on the same date, and have turned 66 on the same date, and I've hit the caps.

Arrrggghhh! They also said that if I deferred to age 70, the difference between the 2008 amount and the 2009 amount was $3/mo or 0.1%.

BTW, my simplifying assumption was that the COLA gets applied monthly rather than annually. At low rates, this does not introduce much of an error.
I'm having trouble opening the spreadsheet (macros vs. my security settings I think) but I did look at Chapter 10 of Muksian's textbook here: http://web.bryant.edu/~rmuksian/text...l_Security.pdf
Notice the example on page 12 where the worker is starting benefits in 2010 at age 66. The calculation uses the bend points for 2006, calculates a PIA of $2,099 then inflates it for four years to get $2,347 as the initial benefit at age 66.

This agrees with the process that the SSA explains on their website here: Social Security Retirement Benefit Calculation In fact, the numbers are identical. See worker B on the second page.

I think the 3.1% and the 1.6% makes an interesting puzzle. You didn't mention if you've quit working, or what the SS benefit estimate might be assuming for future wages. Generally, even if you've quit working, if you are still under 62 the Wage Index will increase the dollar amount of your initial benefit. So some increase isn't surprising, but I would expect to see the same increase in the age 62 and age 66 benefits.

I'll agree that the monthly COLA application shouldn't make a material difference on this analysis.
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Old 06-04-2010, 07:24 AM   #50
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thanks to ron boyd for posting this on another thread. it will answer a lot of questions here. seems to ease the fears about spousal implications of taking it early. it's a long detailed article - so i just pasted some short clips -

Social Security Reset: When Does It Make Sense?

For married beneficiaries, there are additional considerations. Married couples in which the younger and/or healthier spouse has the lower PIA may see an increase to lifetime household benefits if the older spouse resets his or her retirement benefit.

As stated above, this is because the reset benefit amount continues as a survivor benefit after the death of the older spouse. The greater the age difference between the older spouse with the higher PIA and the younger spouse with the lower PIA, the greater the potential increase to lifetime household benefits.

If a reset is considered appropriate, the transaction itself is fairly straightforward: the retiree files form SSA-521 Request for Withdrawal of Application and simultaneously files a new application.8

All past benefits paid on the withdrawn application, including spousal, children's, and Medicare deductions, must be repaid before the new application can be processed. Interest is not charged on the repaid amount and disenrollment from Medicare is not required.9

The SSA will issue an SSA-1099 showing a negative net benefit amount. The taxes paid on past benefits can be deducted (not subject to the 2 percent floor for miscellaneous deductions) if over $3,000, or taxes paid on past benefits can be recaptured as a credit.10

The retiree will have to recalculate but not amend past tax returns to determine the amount of tax attributed to past benefits. Notably, there is no limit to the number of times benefits can be reset.
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Old 06-04-2010, 10:46 AM   #51
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So... endthefed...

Do you take back your original statement

Do you now agree that you should not ALWAYS take SS at 62
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Old 06-04-2010, 10:47 AM   #52
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So... endthefed...

Do you take back your original statement

Do you now agree that you should not ALWAYS take SS at 62
: laugh::l augh::la ugh:

As in all things in life (IMHO), "it all depends"....
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Old 06-04-2010, 11:42 AM   #53
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So... endthefed...

Do you take back your original statement

Do you now agree that you should not ALWAYS take SS at 62
not yet.

nobody laid out a factual case against it. just speculation and fears -

plus, the article from mr boyd seems more supportive than not -
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Old 06-04-2010, 12:06 PM   #54
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not yet.

nobody laid out a factual case against it. just speculation and fears -
Regardless if you feel it is "correct", I'll just go back to my "mantra":

"I would rather die with money, than live without it".

My "solution" (in my situation only; I can't speak for others) meets my goal/mantra....

And as far as to your opinion on the subject? That only impacts your life ...
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Old 06-04-2010, 01:44 PM   #55
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not yet.

nobody laid out a factual case against it. just speculation and fears -

plus, the article from mr boyd seems more supportive than not -

Well, since very few people know all the rules... it might be a bit harder...

But let's try this... my wife is 11 years younger than me... she does not have any SS of her own... if I started to take SS at age 62 and then die.. she does not get survivor benefits until she reaches age 62.. and then at a discount on my discounted amount... because I had started mine early.. and I can not 'fix' it by paying it all back

So, she will be impacted by me starting early for the rest of her life. If I had not started early, she could get a higher amount for the rest of her life based on my normal retirement amount....

Am I 100% sure of this.... no, but I am putting things together from what others have said... and my sister who's husband started early and it affect how much she gets..
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Old 06-04-2010, 01:53 PM   #56
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If there's going to be means testing, perhaps it would make sense to spend down your other assets as much as possible before taking SS.

IOW instead of setting your rate at 62 when you have $2 million in the bank, wait until 70 when you only have 28 cents left.
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Old 06-04-2010, 02:21 PM   #57
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If there's going to be means testing, perhaps it would make sense to spend down your other assets as much as possible before taking SS.

IOW instead of setting your rate at 62 when you have $2 million in the bank, wait until 70 when you only have 28 cents left.

i think it more prudent to convert the visible $2 mill into invisible $2 mill - precious metals, collectibles, etc. still take it at 62 -
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Old 06-04-2010, 02:24 PM   #58
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Well, since very few people know all the rules... it might be a bit harder...

But let's try this... my wife is 11 years younger than me... she does not have any SS of her own... if I started to take SS at age 62 and then die.. she does not get survivor benefits until she reaches age 62.. and then at a discount on my discounted amount... because I had started mine early.. and I can not 'fix' it by paying it all back

So, she will be impacted by me starting early for the rest of her life. If I had not started early, she could get a higher amount for the rest of her life based on my normal retirement amount....

Am I 100% sure of this.... no, but I am putting things together from what others have said... and my sister who's husband started early and it affect how much she gets..
that's another question, not a rebuttal.

to be clear - i'm am not opposed to being wrong - it happens all the time! my latest...started buying into bp in the low 50's....last buy was at 36.xx
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Old 06-04-2010, 03:41 PM   #59
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that's another question, not a rebuttal.

to be clear - i'm am not opposed to being wrong - it happens all the time! my latest...started buying into bp in the low 50's....last buy was at 36.xx
Maybe you should have stayed with conservative investments like gold?
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:14 PM   #60
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Eeek. Since I am not married, the spouse issues don't exist for me. However, I did convert some IRA money to a Roth IRA this year - so either I pay big taxes in 2010 or more modest taxes in 2011/2012. However, the second scenario makes SS taxable... so do I wait or not...

The everlasting question. I'm still trying to work the numbers - I decided NOT to take it at 62 (this month) because of all the issues around the IRA taxation. As soon as I can figure that out... when pigs fly?...

Does anyone know when it gets adjusted for age? Specifically, does my age 62 SS amount stay the same until I turn 63 (and then become a larger benefit, if I haven't claimed yet)? Or do they pro-rate it depending exactly how old you are?

Part of me just says take it and run and pay the taxes - it would make life much simpler in terms of cash flow. It would definitely increase my taxes.
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