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Old 02-22-2013, 08:52 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by rbmrtn View Post
I know some here dismiss CNBC, but I think they have some good interviews from time to time, and it's the only market news channel I get. Like anything else there is some good between all the filler material. This morning they have an interview with Jim Bullard ( ST Louis FED ) about what was actually said by the fed minutes. Basically nothing has changed.

Fed's Bullard: Fed Policy to Stay 'Easy' for 'Long Time'
Agree that there are good interviews, even "some" of the politicians.

Not that many though...
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Old 02-22-2013, 10:10 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by chrisaukcam View Post
Well as the Fed pumps up the economy it has gone up. The question is - when the Fed stops pumping will the economy have legs enough to stand on its own or just collapse?
I think the idea of tying the pumping to economic indicators is so the the economy will have legs enough before slowing/stopping the pumping.
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:17 PM   #23
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I don't understand this, Sam, so maybe you are someone else can clarify for me. Why has there been so much noise over these impending cuts, when hardly a word was mentioned over the 2% payroll tax, before it was reinstated. Seems like the payroll tax increase would create more headwind for the economy than these cuts will.
Just to say it: if/when sequestration occurs the government will still spend more dollars in 2013 than it did in 2012 (though after inflation is calculated in, there will be a tiny reduction).

I think many in DC see a lot more political mileage in the sequester issue (by pinning it on one side or the other, by publicly wringing hands over the impact of these reductions, etc) than in the resumption of the historic SS payroll tax.
The resumption of the payroll tax takes $125 billion out of the economy for 2013, the sequester takes less than $85 billion out of the economy, so for this reason alone the SS tax is probably a bigger "hit" to the economy. I'm reluctant to believe it, but maybe making political hay out of the SS tax resumption is even too cynical for the crowd in DC. After all, the SS program is in the red and needs the money, both sides agreed to the one-year reduction, and there has been a multi-decade track record of what the tax has historically been and this was a one year reduction (so it's hard to call it a tax increase).

Anyway, that's my take on it.
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Old 02-22-2013, 01:23 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by samclem
Just to say it: if/when sequestration occurs the government will still spend more dollars in 2013 than it did in 2012 (though after inflation is calculated in, there will be a tiny reduction).

I think many in DC see a lot more political mileage in the sequester issue (by pinning it on one side or the other, by publicly wringing hands over the impact of these reductions, etc) than in the resumption of the historic SS payroll tax.
The resumption of the payroll tax takes $125 billion out of the economy for 2013, the sequester takes less than $85 billion out of the economy, so for this reason alone the SS tax is probably a bigger "hit" to the economy. I'm reluctant to believe it, but maybe making political hay out of the SS tax resumption is even too cynical for the crowd in DC. After all, the SS program is in the red and needs the money, both sides agreed to the one-year reduction, and there has been a multi-decade track record of what the tax has historically been and this was a one year reduction (so it's hard to call it a tax increase).

Anyway, that's my take on it.
I heard a comment this morning on the news that I thought was simple and inciteful. " The government asked us to tighten our belts up 2% this year. I don't think in turn they should find it unrealistic for us to ask them to tighten their belts a bit, too." That comment was made in reference to keep the cuts scheduled in place.
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