Will the Fed lead the market?

The first market drop in a while is prompting the question of whether or not the Fed will pull back on the current stimulus.
Wall Street slides as Fed minutes spark concern | Reuters

Not really brand new news, but is shaking the VIX. Up 20%

The blip has rattled the financial channels.
It isn't even the biggest down day year-to-date on the DOW, and the S&P500 is still well above 5 year highs! :facepalm:

Sorry, but with the DOW down less than 1%, and the S&P500 down 1.24%, it's not even anything to write home about. Have some 2.5% down days, and then we're talking!
 
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It isn't even the biggest down day year-to-date on the DOW, and the S&P500 is still well above 5 year highs! :facepalm:

Sorry, but with the DOW down less than 1%, and the S&P500 down 1.24%, it's not even anything to write home about. Have some 2.5% down days, and then we're talking!
+1 - and what happened to the volatility we were experiencing last year? It has been a nice, smooth ride up so far *fingers crossed*
 
Well as the Fed pumps up the economy it has gone up. The question is - when the Fed stops pumping will the economy have legs enough to stand on its own or just collapse?
 
I don't see a significant drop in my equity allocation to trigger a rebalance so I'll stay calm. Fortunately I'm really busy for the next couple weeks so no CNBC during the day for me.
 
Well as the Fed pumps up the economy it has gone up. The question is - when the Fed stops pumping will the economy have legs enough to stand on its own or just collapse?
Short term - who knows? Long term the earnings of the companies will have much more impact.
 
Somewhat of over reaction, as usual, just one fed member saying they might consider reducing the purchase amount based on future meeting results.
 
No. the fed won't do anything this year. Obama and congress will take care of the mkt.
 
These are the little buy opportunities I look forward to every month or so.

Me too!!
I'm waiting for an agreement on the sequestor, then purchase accordingly.
 
Me too!!
I'm waiting for an agreement on the sequestor, then purchase accordingly.
I don't think there will be any agreement, I'd bet it will execute just as written.
The next crisis will be the need for another Continuing Resolution (or maybe a real budget--ha, ha!)
 
I bought this neat software from one of our members Lily Byron:)
It not only predicts forex trades, it tells me what the markets will do based on historical data and fed announcements.
According to Lily's software, the market will be up approx 50 points today.
 
I know some here dismiss CNBC, but I think they have some good interviews from time to time, and it's the only market news channel I get. Like anything else there is some good between all the filler material. This morning they have an interview with Jim Bullard ( ST Louis FED ) about what was actually said by the fed minutes. Basically nothing has changed.

Fed's Bullard: Fed Policy to Stay 'Easy' for 'Long Time'
 
I know some here dismiss CNBC, but I think they have some good interviews from time to time, and it's the only market news channel I get. Like anything else there is some good between all the filler material. This morning they have an interview with Jim Bullard ( ST Louis FED ) about what was actually said by the fed minutes. Basically nothing has changed.

Fed's Bullard: Fed Policy to Stay 'Easy' for 'Long Time'
And, interestingly, the stock futures are up very strong this morning, and the European markets are strong.
 
I thought the story here was going to be about bouncy houses and expected some news about inflatables.
 
samclem said:
I don't think there will be any agreement, I'd bet it will execute just as written.
The next crisis will be the need for another Continuing Resolution (or maybe a real budget--ha, ha!)

I don't understand this, Sam, so maybe you are someone else can clarify for me. Why has there been so much noise over these impending cuts, when hardly a word was mentioned over the 2% payroll tax, before it was reinstated. Seems like the payroll tax increase would create more headwind for the economy than these cuts will.
 
I know some here dismiss CNBC, but I think they have some good interviews from time to time, and it's the only market news channel I get. Like anything else there is some good between all the filler material. This morning they have an interview with Jim Bullard ( ST Louis FED ) about what was actually said by the fed minutes. Basically nothing has changed.

Fed's Bullard: Fed Policy to Stay 'Easy' for 'Long Time'

Agree that there are good interviews, even "some" of the politicians.

Not that many though...
 
Well as the Fed pumps up the economy it has gone up. The question is - when the Fed stops pumping will the economy have legs enough to stand on its own or just collapse?

I think the idea of tying the pumping to economic indicators is so the the economy will have legs enough before slowing/stopping the pumping.
 
I don't understand this, Sam, so maybe you are someone else can clarify for me. Why has there been so much noise over these impending cuts, when hardly a word was mentioned over the 2% payroll tax, before it was reinstated. Seems like the payroll tax increase would create more headwind for the economy than these cuts will.
Just to say it: if/when sequestration occurs the government will still spend more dollars in 2013 than it did in 2012 (though after inflation is calculated in, there will be a tiny reduction).

I think many in DC see a lot more political mileage in the sequester issue (by pinning it on one side or the other, by publicly wringing hands over the impact of these reductions, etc) than in the resumption of the historic SS payroll tax.
The resumption of the payroll tax takes $125 billion out of the economy for 2013, the sequester takes less than $85 billion out of the economy, so for this reason alone the SS tax is probably a bigger "hit" to the economy. I'm reluctant to believe it, but maybe making political hay out of the SS tax resumption is even too cynical for the crowd in DC. After all, the SS program is in the red and needs the money, both sides agreed to the one-year reduction, and there has been a multi-decade track record of what the tax has historically been and this was a one year reduction (so it's hard to call it a tax increase).

Anyway, that's my take on it.
 
samclem said:
Just to say it: if/when sequestration occurs the government will still spend more dollars in 2013 than it did in 2012 (though after inflation is calculated in, there will be a tiny reduction).

I think many in DC see a lot more political mileage in the sequester issue (by pinning it on one side or the other, by publicly wringing hands over the impact of these reductions, etc) than in the resumption of the historic SS payroll tax.
The resumption of the payroll tax takes $125 billion out of the economy for 2013, the sequester takes less than $85 billion out of the economy, so for this reason alone the SS tax is probably a bigger "hit" to the economy. I'm reluctant to believe it, but maybe making political hay out of the SS tax resumption is even too cynical for the crowd in DC. After all, the SS program is in the red and needs the money, both sides agreed to the one-year reduction, and there has been a multi-decade track record of what the tax has historically been and this was a one year reduction (so it's hard to call it a tax increase).

Anyway, that's my take on it.

I heard a comment this morning on the news that I thought was simple and inciteful. " The government asked us to tighten our belts up 2% this year. I don't think in turn they should find it unrealistic for us to ask them to tighten their belts a bit, too." That comment was made in reference to keep the cuts scheduled in place.
 
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