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Old 01-22-2008, 04:41 PM   #101
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WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Oh shoot, the markets are closed...
Maybe Bernanke will get an X-mas card from me this year after all.........
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Old 01-22-2008, 05:06 PM   #102
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He wont if he backs himself into a corner by lowering rates too far, and a little extra inflation blows its way in before the recession is over...
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Old 01-22-2008, 05:35 PM   #103
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Extra inflation! How bad is it going to get!

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Old 01-22-2008, 05:38 PM   #104
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Wait until I get to the part about godzilla.
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Old 01-22-2008, 05:46 PM   #105
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I think Ben will be fine since he will just use more "invisible inflation"....prepared for even more extra breading on your grisle
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Old 01-22-2008, 06:49 PM   #106
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Wait until I get to the part about godzilla.
Son of Volcker - the movie.

Inflation, taxes up, interest waaay up to save the dollar(I did Europe in 85) and E Bay auctions of Whip Inflation Now buttons(from the 70's).

I believe it's a myth that he bombed Pearl Harbor - plus he's from New Jersey or something.

I believe it is true the Pat's have a good football team.

heh heh heh - soooo I should add Intel and Microsoft to my greed and lust list - a little frisky for the Norwegian widow don't you think? How about Budweiser as a defensive position - or should I wait till after the Superbowl.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:01 PM   #107
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Well looky there. My portfolio was actually up today. Only a little bit. But I'll take it.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:06 PM   #108
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How about Budweiser as a defensive position - or should I wait till after the Superbowl.
Why wait? I'm headed for the frig now.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:18 PM   #109
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Well looky there. My portfolio was actually up today. Only a little bit. But I'll take it.
I'm not up but only down just a tad, about a 1/4 of 1%. A victory compared to the rest of the month.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:19 PM   #110
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Well, my point wasn't really about INTC specifically. There are plenty of stocks that haven't recovered yet. In fact, the returns of the S&P 500 for the last 10 years have been below CD yields.

I just thought it was amusing that two ex-Intel guys were talking about buying at fire sale prices. How do you know when the sale is over?

Anytime the market is 5-10% or more below its peak you can always set the way back machine to some point and say that you would have been better in alternative investment class than the stock market.

On the other hand it is trivial easy to make the same comparison and have the stock market look ahead.

For instance lets say you got a 5 year CD back in Jan 2003, I believe you got around 3% back then. The S&P is up 53% plus another 10-12% in dividends, and now you get roll over your CD and get a 5 yr 4.75-5% CD or a 1.65% 10 TIP bond....

Or we can go back 20 years and the S&P was 257 giving a nice 400+% increase plus a significant amount of dividends.

I don't know if the sale is over, I just know that there are a lot of stocks in variety of sectors that look a heck of lot cheaper than the do a few months ago.

Sticking your money in index funds, along with some cash and CDs/bonds to see you through bear markets and sticking to an AA is a fine strategy. Arguably better than my attempts at market timing.

On the other hand, there are some opportunity that I think are worth trying to time. In my 25 years, I've only done this 6 times. Buying in 85, selling on Black Tuesday 87, buying heavily at the end of Oct 87, buying at the start of the internet boom in 1996, selling tech stocks in 2000, and now buying in Dec and Jan of this year. I'm 4 for 5... and although I am sure I'll miss the bottom least 5-10% I think in 5 years I'll be pretty happy with my decision.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:21 PM   #111
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I'm not up but only down just a tad, about a 1/4 of 1%. A victory compared to the rest of the month.

I was down .2%, which I also count as victory. I wish I hadn't gotten up early to buy at the opening oh well
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:22 PM   #112
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If you had, the markets would have headed south another 500 points.

I actually WAS up at about 3:30am pacific time getting ready to do some gorging, but when I saw that the Fed cut 3/4 of a point, I went back to bed.
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Old 01-22-2008, 07:39 PM   #113
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i still need to think about this but i'm initially a bit taken aback in having been reading this thread in real time as i've been reading & watching market news. i even saw the market open on tv this morning. don't think i've ever seen that before. i used to watch cartoons in the morning. yes, i realize this is a grown-up financial discussion and i'm not even sure if i have my finger on it, but i'm a little overwelmed by how controlling the market can be in a person's life. it almost seems more influential than a sexual urge. it is as if the market is the very air we breathe and you have to be careful not to blow out a lung. it's a little disconcerting and i don't think i like having my emotions played with like this, especially since no one has even offered to buy me dinner.
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Old 01-22-2008, 08:25 PM   #114
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i still need to think about this but i'm initially a bit taken aback in having been reading this thread in real time as i've been reading & watching market news. i even saw the market open on tv this morning. don't think i've ever seen that before. i used to watch cartoons in the morning. yes, i realize this is a grown-up financial discussion and i'm not even sure if i have my finger on it, but i'm a little overwelmed by how controlling the market can be in a person's life. it almost seems more influential than a sexual urge. it is as if the market is the very air we breathe and you have to be careful not to blow out a lung. it's a little disconcerting and i don't think i like having my emotions played with like this, especially since no one has even offered to buy me dinner.

Interesting observation. It seems to me broadly speaking there are broadly speaking three types of people with respect to the market.
A. Non or very passive investors. Classicaly this is young people with minimal savings in the market or old retired folks who have other people manage their funds.
B. Active investors. These are the people who actively buy and sell individual stocks, or sector ETF or mutual funds. Do reseach and check their portfolio values a least once or twice a day... I am in this group.
C. Semi Active investor: This folks own primarily index mutual funds but do pay attention to issue like Asset allocation and follow the market reasonably often,and have a good idea how the market has perform every week or month.

The news of the impending market disaster caught the attention of everybody, even my poker "wife" who is generally completely unaware of the market, new what was going on. The news doesn't have a big impact on their life, (even if they own stocks they aren't going to do anything), so it doesn't solicit a strong emotional reaction.

For active and semi active investor this is big news and worthy of an emotional involvement. In many ways I think it is worse for the the semi active investor because while you want to do something you aren't sure what do. An active investor can pretend to have some control over the situation buy stock A, sell stock or Bond B...

For me a better analogy is sports. I am not a big sports fan, but when the local team or my old Bay Area teams make it into a playoff I get interested and start rooting for them. I am far less knowledagble than a true fan so when something unusual happens I feel a bit overwhelmed but still emotionally involved and upset when they lose.

If you want some one to buy you dinner go talk to an Amerprise financial advisor.... I am sure they'll buy you a dinner and assure that you wouldn't have to worry about crazy mr market
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Old 01-22-2008, 08:48 PM   #115
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that was excellent clifp, got it, thank you. i'm feeling much better now. i just have to treat this likes sports and ignore it.
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Old 01-22-2008, 09:10 PM   #116
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What is so crazy is that Interest rates in Japan were well zero when they went thru their mess back 20 years ago.

We are on our way to a mess.

Hang on.
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Old 01-22-2008, 09:16 PM   #117
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For active and semi active investor this is big news and worthy of an emotional involvement. In many ways I think it is worse for the the semi active investor because while you want to do something you aren't sure what do. An active investor can pretend to have some control over the situation buy stock A, sell stock or Bond B...
Okay, I couldn't stand it any longer, being a semi-active investor I finally had to update my spreadsheets which I usually only do at month end. Down 3.4% for the year. Time for a glass of wine. >5% would have called for the scotch
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Old 01-22-2008, 09:28 PM   #118
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Target Retirement 2015 down 6.58% year to date. Back in 02 my Lifestrategy mod was down -16.5% one quarter.

Just as soon not retest my stay the course mantra BUT:

The Norwegian widow - polishing up the bottom half of her bifocals notes current yield 2.99% livable if required - toss in a few good dividend stocks and the Carribean cruise is not off the table - now that I've conceeded the Pats have a good team.

Sooooo - whats up in 'Dirty Market Timer Land' - for those of us with a little mad money and snow still on the ground.

heh heh heh heh heh heh -
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Old 01-22-2008, 09:34 PM   #119
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Psssst. Wellesley's only down 2.29% YTD.

heh heh heh heh heh heh -
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Old 01-22-2008, 09:41 PM   #120
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Down about 4.7%; better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick...

I took some profits from the runup in TIP and PCRIX, so I have a few dollars to market time reallocate, but not just yet.
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