Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Will There Be Panic In The Markets?
Old 01-21-2008, 08:37 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
Retire Soon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
Will There Be Panic In The Markets?

The overseas markets have taken a significant downturn today over worries that the U.S. economy is headed for a recession. The Asian stock markets had a very bad day with Hong Kong losing 5.49% and Japan off by 3.86%. European markets are not starting off any better with France down 5.37%, UK off by 4%, and Germany down 5.5%. As I write all of the U.S. futures markets are not looking good either with the Dow down by 385, S&P 47 and Nasdaq 61.

The American markets will not be opening for about 24 hours. The S&P 500 is now down 15% from its most recent high, so we're close to being in bear territory. I don't mean to sound all doom and gloom, but do you think people will panic after the opening bell tomorrow?
__________________

__________________
Retire Soon is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-21-2008, 08:40 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
Yes, at least in the morning.

Just to be provocative I'll say this: Welcome to peak oil!
__________________

__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 08:43 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 98
I think so as well. Could be an ugly, ugly day.

The only hope is that both Asia and Europe are going to open again before we do, and if there can be some sense of normalcy in those trades, maybe the damage can be limited.

Then again, it they tumble once again, look out below...
__________________
cyclone6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 08:45 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,446
Probably. Looks like were headed for that 20% correction the talking heads have been pushing for. Thank God I have 7 years worth of expenses in cash. Looks like I will need it.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 08:55 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
travelover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 9,906
Mr Market sez, stocks are on sale!
__________________
Yes, I have achieved work / life balance.
travelover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:03 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52 View Post
Thank God I have 7 years worth of expenses in cash. Looks like I will need it.
Heck, if you think it's going to be that bad maybe you should try to corner the market on JD by buying a big supply now. It will only go up in price as the demand for it must surely increase, right?. And if things turn around quicker than you fear and you end up stuck with an oversupply, you can take consolation in the fact that JD only gets better with age. You can either drink to celebrate or drink to drown your sorrows.

Looks like this strategy might be a win-win-win proposition.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:05 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Bikerdude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,901
Looks like fear is taking over . I think the next year will weed out a lot of investors. Too much lying and cheating going on in the Financial sector. It will be a while before greed takes control again IMHO.
__________________
I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said Alan Greenspan
Bikerdude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:14 AM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 137
Heard the DOW futures are down 475 this morning - haven't verified this.

Check, -341 presently. Tomorrow - who knows?
__________________
danm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:28 AM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
Retire Soon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
IMHO, the ball is now in Ben Bernanke's court. One thing that could prevent a major slide in tomorrow's markets is for the rate setting committee to do what they did last August: that is, lower interest rates by 1/2% without waiting the next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. The goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent damage to the economy and their major weapon is control of interest rates. The next meeting is set for January 29/30 and that may be simply be too late.
__________________
Retire Soon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:28 AM   #10
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
I do beleive that there will be some panic.

The economy, jobs, and interest rates will now be the big issues for the administration and for those running for president.

NBC news article Highly skilled and out of work - Long-term joblessness spreads in the middle class

Highly skilled and out of work - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
Wags is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:31 AM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
I'm not sure if I've ever seen the Dow/500/NAS futures lower than I woke up to today.
Perhaps the fed will surprise us?? and perhaps they won't. A few more days of this the pickets will be in front of the fed.

This is likely to be one of those years that our taxes owed on mutual gains are astounding considering we have no money left.

Ah well, when the dust settles we will look back on this period as the buying opportunity of a lifetime and be subjected to endless stories about how I bought this great McMansion for cents on the dollar with a 30 year fixed @ 5%.
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:33 AM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 137
They'll have short term effect on the markets, but long term it makes no difference I believe. There now seems to be widespread understanding that this is a solvency crisis, not liquidity. The Fed has no help for solvency.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Retire Soon View Post
IMHO, the ball is now in Ben Bernanke's court. One thing that could prevent a major slide in tomorrow's markets is for the rate setting committee to do what they did last August: that is, lower interest rates by 1/2% without waiting the next scheduled Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. The goal of the Federal Reserve is to prevent damage to the economy and their major weapon is control of interest rates. The next meeting is set for January 29/30 and that may be simply be too late.
__________________
danm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:38 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wags View Post
I do beleive that there will be some panic.

The economy, jobs, and interest rates will now be the big issues for the administration and for those running for president.

NBC news article Highly skilled and out of work - Long-term joblessness spreads in the middle class

Highly skilled and out of work - Washington Post - MSNBC.com

GOD BLESS
After you've read the above, article read this link for some hope. Personally, I've made some of the same observations as this article contains.
Help Wanted highlights skills drain in U.S. | Markets | Markets News | Reuters
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 09:49 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,666
Quote:
Just to be provocative I'll say this: Welcome to peak oil!
Al, are you a peakist?
Fun topic, but I am not a doomer there.
As for panic, it is already happening. I am just looking forward to the sales on stocks.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
Zathras is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 10:23 AM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
ikubak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 391
It seems a little early but I think I am catching a waft of panic and capitulation, based on the futures and foreign markets being down 4-6 percent. It's getting to where people can't stand stocks. At times like this, I am reminded about Peter Lynch's cocktail theory. He says in the first stage of an upward market - one that has been down awhile and that nobody expects to rise again - people aren't talking about stocks. In stage two, when the market is up 15% from stage one, most people are talking about how risky stocks are. Stage 3, market up 30% from stage one people are more enthusiastic about stocks and ask for stock tips. Stage 4, people are very enthusiastic and are giving stock tips.

As usual I will stay the course and keep contributing to my retirement accounts.
__________________
Retire date Jan. 10, 2018
ikubak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 10:25 AM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
i wish the mods would combine all these stock market threads into one big one like they do on some other forums. have one stock market thread and one RE thread.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 10:26 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikubak View Post
It seems a little early but I think I am catching a waft of panic and capitulation, based on the futures and foreign markets being down 4-6 percent. It's getting to where people can't stand stocks. At times like this, I am reminded about Peter Lynch's cocktail theory. He says in the first stage of an upward market - one that has been down awhile and that nobody expects to rise again - people aren't talking about stocks. In stage two, when the market is up 15% from stage one, most people are talking about how risky stocks are. Stage 3, market up 30% from stage one people are more enthusiastic about stocks and ask for stock tips. Stage 4, people are very enthusiastic and are giving stock tips.

As usual I will stay the course and keep contributing to my retirement accounts.
i don't think we are there yet since volume is going up on the downturns and the volume is drying up on the rallies. the bottom is when volume dries up on the down days signifying that the selling is done
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 10:36 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,446
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Heck, if you think it's going to be that bad maybe you should try to corner the market on JD by buying a big supply now. It will only go up in price as the demand for it must surely increase, right?. And if things turn around quicker than you fear and you end up stuck with an oversupply, you can take consolation in the fact that JD only gets better with age. You can either drink to celebrate or drink to drown your sorrows.

Looks like this strategy might be a win-win-win proposition.
Just placed my order. This should help balance out my portfolio.

barrels to sit and wait for over 4 years photo - Rachel photos at pbase.com
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 10:45 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52 View Post
Just placed my order. This should help balance out my portfolio.
Hey, when it comes to a diversified asset allocation, I can't hold a shot glass to you!
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2008, 11:07 AM   #20
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,620
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bikerdude View Post
Looks like fear is taking over .
Woo-hoo!

As for fear & greed in the financial sector, watch this space for the February annual report:
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY ANNUAL & INTERIM REPORTS

We're reinvesting the dividends and I wish we had extra cash sitting around. Of course being fully invested is probably a wise counterbalance to my "early-to-the-knife-catching-party" tendencies. But what a great time to be an employed DCA investor!
__________________

__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Bear Markets...Just so you know mark500 FIRE and Money 39 01-21-2008 07:30 PM
Anyone else having panic attacks about the market? newyorklady FIRE and Money 144 03-27-2007 06:42 PM
Accelerate The Plan--Panic Time yakers Other topics 18 09-14-2005 08:58 AM
Emerging Markets Spanky FIRE and Money 1 05-23-2005 08:08 AM
How confident are you in the markets? GTM FIRE and Money 19 10-22-2004 01:29 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.