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Old 10-24-2009, 02:06 PM   #21
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Old 10-24-2009, 02:09 PM   #22
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What you could see too is the amount of people ERing overseas to take advantage of a lower cost of living and cheaper health care.
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Old 10-24-2009, 02:39 PM   #23
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Half our crew in the hospital, the med bills alone are going to kill us. ---Clay Morrow, Sons of Anarchy
We now live longer. We want no expenses spared to prolong our life at all costs, to try any dubious medicine, any expensive treatment in futile attempts to cure our terminal diseases. We either have no assets to pay for those medical procedures, or if we do, want to preserve them as inheritance to our kids. Yes, our children, few of whom want to take on the dirty jobs of bathing us, feeding us, and changing our diapers in nursing homes. We do not want to allow immigrants into the country to do those jobs.

In short, we want every damn thing, and somebody else's got to pay. We do not care to figure out who the payers are, because damn it, we are entitled.
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Old 10-24-2009, 03:49 PM   #24
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I agree with Ziggy about many people retiring early in comfort were fortunate to be in the right place at the right time. Though we have no pensions nor benefits, my wife being able to quit and I to work part-time, we were also fortunate to be saving money and investing during the long bull market of 1980-2000. There will still be people who retire early, but they will need to be more frugal, willing to settle for a lesser standard of living in retirement, and being a lot more financially savvy than the lucky baby boomers. Life is not fair, I know.
There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

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Old 10-24-2009, 04:17 PM   #25
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There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

Indeed. When it is time to pull the plug and I have fulfilled my responsibilities as a parent (launched kids), I will be making it happen on whatever basis my funds allow. If that means champage and caviar every day, great. If it means beans and rice, that will be fine, too.
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Old 10-24-2009, 05:08 PM   #26
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There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.
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Indeed. When it is time to pull the plug and I have fulfilled my responsibilities as a parent (launched kids), I will be making it happen on whatever basis my funds allow. If that means champage and caviar every day, great. If it means beans and rice, that will be fine, too.
That's IT! The man in the picture would be the last to worry about health insurance, about funding his HSA, or his Medicare Part B. Health care cost has been the largest worry that holds many of us back.

Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache.

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.

I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.
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Old 10-24-2009, 05:19 PM   #27
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Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache.

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.
Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?
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Old 10-24-2009, 05:26 PM   #28
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Weenies, beans and rice. Hmmm...throw a little bacon in there and I'll be a happy camper......
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Old 10-24-2009, 05:31 PM   #29
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I also think FIRE will live on. I think most of us have worked fairly hard at getting to FIRE, and suspect that people will continue to do so.

I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome.

I also have a sense of accumulation becoming more skewed, so that more people will inherit enough to become FIRE than have in the past. And conversely, inheritance will become less of a factor for more people. I think "middle class" kinds of inheritance will go down.

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Old 10-24-2009, 05:57 PM   #30
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Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?
Yeaqh. What was that quote that went something like "I was afraid of dieing and then I was scared I wasn't going to."
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Old 10-24-2009, 07:22 PM   #31
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With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?
Early is a relative term. The people who live below their means will always retire earlier than the proles . Now, admittedly, early may turn into 65 rather than 50.
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Old 10-24-2009, 07:40 PM   #32
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But big factors are also the good benefits like pensions and health care we have from our emplyers that younger workers no longer get. So my question is simple. With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?
I get no pension or health care benefits at all. Retiring from a typical Silicon Valley tech job is exactly like quitting, except that you don't start a new job, and the exit interview is easier. FIRE'd at age 55. (I got lucky on stock options and the date moved up about 3-4 years.)

With care, planning, and an early start, FIRE is perfectly feasible for the younger workers. I showed my son, now in his 20s, John Bogles "Little Book of Common Sense Investing", and charts showing how much he'd have is he started saving at age 25, and at age 35. (Hint: You could start at 25, stop at 35, and have roughly what someone starting at 35 would have when you reach age 60, through the wonders of reinvestment and compounding.)

He started socking 10% away at age 22. He'll be fine.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:11 PM   #33
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I'm well on my way to FIRE and have no pension or post-employment health care coming my way. (in actual fact, more clarity on the health care front is the one thing that has kept me from pulling the trigger already)


I'd like to think there will be enough of us to keep a forum like this going.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:22 PM   #34
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I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.
Never heard of bitters in a Manhattan. Usually use good bourbon, sweet vermouth, a couple of cherries and a coule of teaspoons of the sweet liquid that the cherries are packed in. Yummy.

Of course most of the time I just like high quality bourbon neat.
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Old 10-24-2009, 08:51 PM   #35
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Old 10-25-2009, 12:23 AM   #36
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Many of us on here can FIRE because we save, LBYM and invest sensibly. But big factors are also the good benefits like pensions and health care we have from our emplyers that younger workers no longer get. So my question is simple. With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?
Ben Franklin pulled it off at the age of 42 without pensions or healthcare, and made his portfolio last another four decades. Admittedly he picked up the odd free-lance writing job along with some research contracts. So maybe a better term would be ESR.

I think ER is wildly popular in the last couple years of every bull market, and extinct after the first year of every bear market...
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Old 10-25-2009, 04:51 AM   #37
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For the reasons given, the number of early retirees in a number of developed countries could be expected to decline: higher taxes, demographics and reduced capacity to impose financial burdens on others (usually future taxpayers and high income earners) will all be contributing factors.

However, globally I would expect the number of people who are able to retire early on the basis of financial independence to increase: high savings rates, lower tax rates, more favourable demographics, lower cost of living and faster growing economies will all make it easier for members of the emerging middle class to achieve financial independence and retire early - if they wish to. The Merrill Lynch Cap Gemini world wealth report which comes out each year shows the number of wealthy in emerging markets going up at quite a rapid rate (although with some volatility).

Tax rates make a big difference. In Hong Kong I have no equivalent of social security, no equivalent to medicare/medicaid (although the public health system is reasonably good) and no pension but I still expect to get there in my mid-late 40s. This is largely because the low tax rate (currently 15% on salary, 16% on net rental income, with no capital gains taxes and no tax on dividends or interest) enables me to save a high proportion of my pre-tax income. If I had to pay taxes at developed economy rates it would working for a lot longer.
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Old 10-25-2009, 06:21 AM   #38
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...
Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today....

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go....
I am going to make myself a Manhattan now...
The Manhattan is a good idea but I will put it off until the flu goes away.

Had I done what you suggest I might not be here today, I could have "let go" at age 57, just as my grandfather did. But like a fool I live on to repeatedly thank the medical industry and quibble not about the financial cost.

I'm not gonna start with 'ya on the Novocaine. Be well.

Love your recipe, Brewer.
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Old 10-25-2009, 07:36 AM   #39
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I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome. Coach
I am certain you are right. If some sort of nationalized health care reform is enacted, I fully expect a spike in (early) retirements. IMO a public option will also cause a massive shift toward fully socialized health care in the US - Corporations will find a way to move their employees from their burdensome private insurance to the public option. Interesting times...
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Old 10-25-2009, 08:35 AM   #40
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My children have learned some very thrifty ways early in life. One has read "The Millionaire Next Door" and was rather impressed. She is saving into 401k at 20+% of income and is starting out with a couple hundred a month into a Roth and hopes to max it annually. Son is wrapping up education yet and hopes to buy a beat up small home and go the rehab route and roll them a few times.

A big boost for many of our next generation is in what they inherit. Most will be/have been home schooled by us on finance as indicated by conversations we have had. Some will be getting some financial lift as well. Escaping the rat race early will never be the norm, but for many the goal. For many the rat race will be different and less dependant upon the largesse of Corporate America. Some will have success rooted in effort and some in luck.
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