Will this forum become extinct

[walkinwood]

I think people will continue to FIRE even without pensions. Semi-ER may become more prevalent as people find ways to monetize their interests and passions or do it just for the added social contact or to fund the gap. I am an example - still ER'd, but will probably be more Semi-ER'd in the future.

There are others in this forum who have also ER'd without pensions.

I studied my 10 year return and it is only 6.30% (nominal as of 10/9/09). That is for a portfolio that had massive additions of funds as I went through the highest earning period of my career. The same should hold roughly true for anyone retiring in the late 2000s.

There are a few developments in favor of the ability to retire early. There is an added awareness of the dangers of debt as a result of the 2008/09 downturn and more double-income households now than when those ER'ing now were starting off. Starter homes are affordable again. On the other hand, I think the legions of people working low wage jobs in retail and other service sectors may never be able to save enough even if they are so inclined.

As to whether this board will continue? Maybe technology will make it obsolete and replace it with something even better.

[freebird5825]

Quote:

Originally Posted by walkinwood As to whether this board will continue? Maybe technology will make it obsolete and replace it with something even better.

We'll get digital TX/RX/GPS nanotechnology implanted in our forearms and noise cancelling microphones implanted in our upper lips. We will be interconnected wirelessly and able to use speech-to-text translators to do our posts in real time, and text-to-speech for the reading them. We will hear each other in full duplex on real time multichannel comm systems.
[end of geek-burst]
A lot of this technology already exists stand alone, it just has not been fully integrated for this purpose. Oops, I just did a public release of my next invention.
Stuff like this is not so far away, folks.
Maybe one of our Young Dreamers will see this post and do the math and design a system. Have fun!

[ls99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by freebird5825 We'll get digital TX/RX/GPS nanotechnology implanted in our forearms and noise cancelling microphones implanted in our upper lips. We will be interconnected wirelessly and able to use speech-to-text translators to do our posts in real time, and text-to-speech for the reading them. We will hear each other in full duplex on real time multichannel comm systems. [end of geek-burst] A lot of this technology already exists stand alone, it just has not been fully integrated for this purpose. Oops, I just did a public release of my next invention. Stuff like this is not so far away, folks. Maybe one of our Young Dreamers will see this post and do the math and design a system. Have fun!

Why do all of that? Use telepathy. Of course need to have spam blocking in place. And mind your thoughts, and other non-public ideas.

[Trek]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nun Many of us on here can FIRE because we save, LBYM and invest sensibly. But big factors are also the good benefits like pensions and health care we have from our emplyers that younger workers no longer get. So my question is simple. With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?

No, because it seems a good many folks on the forum aren't FIRE'd, but working towards/hoping to be. There will always be those working towards the FIRE goal which is what this forum is much about.

[NW-Bound]

I agree with Ziggy about many people retiring early in comfort were fortunate to be in the right place at the right time. Though we have no pensions nor benefits, my wife being able to quit and I to work part-time, we were also fortunate to be saving money and investing during the long bull market of 1980-2000. There will still be people who retire early, but they will need to be more frugal, willing to settle for a lesser standard of living in retirement, and being a lot more financially savvy than the lucky baby boomers. Life is not fair, I know.

[Martha]

Half our crew in the hospital, the med bills alone are going to kill us. ---Clay Morrow, Sons of Anarchy

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martha Half our crew in the hospital, the med bills alone are going to kill us. ---Clay Morrow, Sons of Anarchy

We now live longer. We want no expenses spared to prolong our life at all costs, to try any dubious medicine, any expensive treatment in futile attempts to cure our terminal diseases. We either have no assets to pay for those medical procedures, or if we do, want to preserve them as inheritance to our kids. Yes, our children, few of whom want to take on the dirty jobs of bathing us, feeding us, and changing our diapers in nursing homes. We do not want to allow immigrants into the country to do those jobs.

In short, we want every damn thing, and somebody else's got to pay. We do not care to figure out who the payers are, because damn it, we are entitled.

[calmloki]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martha Half our crew in the hospital, the med bills alone are going to kill us. ---Clay Morrow, Sons of Anarchy

One of the most engaging soap operas on TV - faithful viewer here. Some very real feeling family/relationship dynamics.

Medical care is an interesting problem - medicare is spending an amazing amount keeping MIL ticking - her clock is running down, but she's still cogent and interested to go out and watch the space shuttle go over - still, could probably keep a thousand or two African children alive on what she costs. OTOH, callously, if the baby Africans were kept alive wouldn't that result in even more load on the global system down the line? My impression is that doctors are committed to giving the most aggressive defence - survival is the sole goal, quality of life is secondary, and cost is not a factor. I haven't had a doctor yet twig to having any idea what a given procedure costs - for that I have to try and pry the info from the counter help. Can understand the reasoning that leads to willful ignorance on their part of cost - allowing cost to be a concern might hamper their defense, maybe remove a weapon from their arsenal. Pretty sure that times are changing, and that the move to involve the patient in the health care process and decisions will have the effect of reducing heroic life sustaining efforts for doctors without making them be the ones to choose life or death.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki Medical care is an interesting problem - medicare is spending an amazing amount keeping MIL ticking - her clock is running down, but she's still cogent and interested to go out and watch the space shuttle go over - still, could probably keep a thousand or two African children alive on what she costs.

Thank your lucky stars that these Africans haven't yet figured out how to vote in American elections.

Maybe remember too, that much African Aid winds up being sold by the army or political leaders, and the proceeds stashed in a Swiss bank.

Ha

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I agree with Ziggy about many people retiring early in comfort were fortunate to be in the right place at the right time. Though we have no pensions nor benefits, my wife being able to quit and I to work part-time, we were also fortunate to be saving money and investing during the long bull market of 1980-2000. There will still be people who retire early, but they will need to be more frugal, willing to settle for a lesser standard of living in retirement, and being a lot more financially savvy than the lucky baby boomers. Life is not fair, I know.

There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

Indeed. When it is time to pull the plug and I have fulfilled my responsibilities as a parent (launched kids), I will be making it happen on whatever basis my funds allow. If that means champage and caviar every day, great. If it means beans and rice, that will be fine, too.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345 Indeed. When it is time to pull the plug and I have fulfilled my responsibilities as a parent (launched kids), I will be making it happen on whatever basis my funds allow. If that means champage and caviar every day, great. If it means beans and rice, that will be fine, too.

That's IT! The man in the picture would be the last to worry about health insurance, about funding his HSA, or his Medicare Part B. Health care cost has been the largest worry that holds many of us back.

Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache.

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.

I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache. Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.

Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?

[bbbamI]

Weenies, beans and rice. Hmmm...throw a little bacon in there and I'll be a happy camper......

[RonBoyd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?

Yeaqh. What was that quote that went something like "I was afraid of dieing and then I was scared I wasn't going to."

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.

Never heard of bitters in a Manhattan. Usually use good bourbon, sweet vermouth, a couple of cherries and a coule of teaspoons of the sweet liquid that the cherries are packed in. Yummy.

Of course most of the time I just like high quality bourbon neat.

[CuppaJoe]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound ... Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today.... Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go.... I am going to make myself a Manhattan now...

The Manhattan is a good idea but I will put it off until the flu goes away.

Had I done what you suggest I might not be here today, I could have "let go" at age 57, just as my grandfather did. But like a fool I live on to repeatedly thank the medical industry and quibble not about the financial cost.

I'm not gonna start with 'ya on the Novocaine. Be well.

Love your recipe, Brewer.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CuppaJoe Had I done what you suggest I might not be here today, I could have "let go" at age 57, just as my grandfather did. But like a fool I live on to repeatedly thank the medical industry and quibble not about the financial cost.

Uh oh!

Let me rephrase what I wrote. I would not decline medical care for myself, nor say that we should deny it to people who couldn't afford it. I was making a point that people in the medical profession always know, that people at the end of their life cost a lot of money. And often, the family members if not the patient want to hang on at all costs. This would be fine if it came out of their pockets. But if funding and other resources are limited (what isn't?), then some trade-offs would be needed.

So, I would not say that any person isn't worth a now routine operation like appendicitis for example. I was thinking of the more severe illnesses, where the treatment is expensive and the outcome far less than certain. I often wonder if a person needs more than $500K or $1M to stay alive that the quality of that life would not be severely degraded. Does that money buy anymore than some relative short time of a bedridden life, totally relying on life support systems? I would think I would plead to be let go. I think doctors know when a patient case is hopeless. They walk a very delicate line when breaking the news to the patient and family members. It is easy for them to be accused of rationing healthcare or being gatekeepers.

[Coach]

I also think FIRE will live on. I think most of us have worked fairly hard at getting to FIRE, and suspect that people will continue to do so.

I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome.

I also have a sense of accumulation becoming more skewed, so that more people will inherit enough to become FIRE than have in the past. And conversely, inheritance will become less of a factor for more people. I think "middle class" kinds of inheritance will go down.

Coach

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome. Coach

I am certain you are right. If some sort of nationalized health care reform is enacted, I fully expect a spike in (early) retirements. IMO a public option will also cause a massive shift toward fully socialized health care in the US - Corporations will find a way to move their employees from their burdensome private insurance to the public option. Interesting times...