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View Poll Results: Will you still Buy & Hold ?
YES 121 79.08%
NO 22 14.38%
Undecided 10 6.54%
Voters: 153. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-21-2008, 05:13 PM   #21
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Theoretically, I believe that trying to time the market is just not possible for those of us that are less than the brightest lights in the sky.

That being said, the way the economy was run since the dot-com bubble was so blatantly corrupt and foolish, it was obvious being in equities was a disaster waiting to happen. And it did. When things settle down, there may well come a time for the simple investment technique of investing a set amount each week, good times or bad, but now is not that time.

Why would someone want to buy an object including a stock, at a higher price rather than lower? I prefer to buy things at the lowest possible price and sell at the high.
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:19 PM   #22
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This market has taught me to watch closely and take a lot out in times like these before it drops 40% . I know I'll lose some on the upswings but I'll offset that by smaller losses on the downswings .
I think that's a great idea but the devil is in the details. Tell us how you're going to recognize 'times like these'?
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:30 PM   #23
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I think that's a great idea but the devil is in the details. Tell us how you're going to recognize 'times like these'?

Easy I'll read the board and as soon as Dawg starts banging his head I'll wait three weeks and then execute my plan .
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:32 PM   #24
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Easy I'll read the board and as soon as Dawg starts banging his head I'll wait three weeks and then execute my plan .
Can't argue with logic like that!
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Old 11-21-2008, 05:34 PM   #25
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You're saying that from now on, you're going to watch closely, and whenever the market is about to drop 40%, you're going to take a lot of your money out.

You know what the problem with that is, right?

Of course we never know when a drop like this is coming but maybe setting a limit on the amount you are willing to lose will soften the blow or maybe not .
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Old 11-21-2008, 06:44 PM   #26
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I think some of these polls should be divided between those still working and those who have retired. If I was younger and still working I would be on the not nauseous side of anxious as I am now, while watching what I need to live on for the next 20-30 years decrease mightily. I don't know if I have the time to see it return to previous high levels, nor any extra cash to buy these so called bargains out there.
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Old 11-21-2008, 07:50 PM   #27
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I think some of these polls should be divided between those still working and those who have retired.
What he said.
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:17 PM   #28
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I voted undecided since that's the closest answer.

Index funds - buy & hold

Individual instruments - buy and hold until you wouldn't buy more at the current price.

Not a new thought, bought it years ago and am still holding.
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Old 11-21-2008, 08:47 PM   #29
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I am wondering if this market has people questioning the buy and hold method .
We've spent six years getting to a B&H portfolio, and just finished what we hope is the last round of tax-loss selling that we'll have to do for quite a few years. Need to buy some more PID as soon as we finish fishing for change in the sofa cushions and maxing out our HELOC.

I'm still undecided on reinvesting the dividends. But I think it's better to reinvest dividends when the market is sucky than it is to reinvest them when it's hitting all-time highs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moemg View Post
This market has taught me to watch closely and take a lot out in times like these before it drops 40% . I know I'll lose some on the upswings but I'll offset that by smaller losses on the downswings . Yes, I 'm becoming a dirty market timer . How about you ?
Good luck with that! As Bernstein says, I'd rather live my life.
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Old 11-21-2008, 09:43 PM   #30
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You're saying that from now on, you're going to watch closely, and whenever the market is about to drop 40%, you're going to take a lot of your money out.

You know what the problem with that is, right?
Don't worry. We'll also be watching carefully and we'll get back in before it jumps 30%.
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Old 11-22-2008, 12:55 AM   #31
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Of course we never know when a drop like this is coming but maybe setting a limit on the amount you are willing to lose will soften the blow or maybe not .
Set the limit by determining your bond:equity ratio and tolerance for loss tempered by your need for risk. Until now this was mostly an academic exercise but now we all really know what our tolerance for loss is. And a painfull lesson it has been.

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Old 11-22-2008, 06:44 AM   #32
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I voted buy and hold. I'm not buying a lot, but I expect to hold this portion for at least 10 years
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Old 11-22-2008, 07:06 AM   #33
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I'm sticking with my asset allocation strategy.

In a few years, I'm sure all the geniuses that are buying now will be telling us what a great move they made buying at these levels. If I had double the cash I currently have, I would be buying more now too. I have bought more into real estate in the past few months since I was under-allocated in that sector.

Buy and hold for me.
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Old 11-22-2008, 07:07 AM   #34
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I think it is like two farmers: The first one cultivate and plants( invests in a very diversified portfolio) and waits for Spring. The second leaves the land to do what it will. When the seeds sprout and render a great harvest the second person can't rush out a try to get the seed in the ground then it is too late.
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Old 11-25-2008, 04:02 PM   #35
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Do I believe in buy and hold? Depends on when you get in

If you bought in, in 1980 and held for 20 years, it works...the market went up 10 times. The last 10 years, the market has been flat....a slight difference.

The fallacy of "buy and hold" is thinking that every market participant has the same chances and the same opportunities...just isn't the case.

I'm not in the market now, don't plan to be. There could be a nice rally here. But I just don't see the case for stocks going up 8-10% a year for the next 10 years.

-Interest rates may go much higher. Not good for stocks.
-Inflation may go much, much higher (where does the money come for all these bailouts?)
-Stocks on a historic basis aren't really "cheap". Things got so inflated in the 90's, looking at p/e's and ratios are dangerous. The "e" in p/e could keep deflating.
-Japan L shaped depression?

There's still much downside in stocks, and the upside over cash is minimal (maybe a few percent over cash?).

Still, we could rally a few thousands points, it's possible there's been so much selling. But what's going to sustain it? Has all the bad news really been factored in (commercial real estate, retail, spending, credit cards?). The damage to the economy has been so bad...hard to believe we'd only get one bottom...
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Old 11-25-2008, 04:15 PM   #36
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Yes -- but once the market recovers somewhat, I will be reducing my AA to somewhere around 55/45. I've been at 70/30 and I'm not going to sell unless/until we get back close to 70/30 -- but at that time I will ratchet back the AA a bit.

I just sunk a large portion of my fixed income into TIPS yesterday, and I suspect that will be buy and hold until they mature in 2025...
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Old 11-25-2008, 04:24 PM   #37
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But I just don't see the case for stocks going up 8-10% a year for the next 10 years.
-Interest rates may go much higher. Not good for stocks. Worse for bonds
-Inflation may go much, much higher (where does the money come for all these bailouts?) Not good for cash or bonds
-Stocks on a historic basis aren't really "cheap". Things got so inflated in the 90's, looking at p/e's and ratios are dangerous. The "e" in p/e could keep deflating. Many good companies are selling foe P/e's of 0.5 - 4.0
-Japan L shaped depression? Are you investing in Japan? look world wide.

There's still much downside in stocks, and the upside over cash is minimal (maybe a few percent over cash?). Inflation?


I don't know either but in my mind they are the best bet.
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Old 11-25-2008, 05:07 PM   #38
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So what metric should I use to pull my money in and out of the market? Guess Im not smart enough Ill stick with the buy and hold method.
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Old 11-25-2008, 05:13 PM   #39
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So what metric should I use to pull my money in and out of the market? Guess Im not smart enough Ill stick with the buy and hold method.
Your rebalance trigger points!

DD
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Old 11-25-2008, 05:15 PM   #40
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Your rebalance trigger points!

DD

Wow so easy a caveman could do it
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