Al in Ohio
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
For me it will be 4%. That works out in my planning, but will be higher for the first 5 or 6 years until I apply for ss.
I was simply answering why many early retirees here are considering periods like 40 years or more, as opposed to the standard 30 years used in the models with a retirement age of 65. It depends on how early one retires and we have some very early retirees on this forum.
....I understand the 4% withdraw strategy. But I see us pulling up to 5or 6 percent for 2 to 3 years right after retirement .
Well sure - you need to pad a little more for longer retirements hence the lower withdrawal rates.To complement that thought: For those going very early: Going from a 30 to 40 year scenario means roughly losing 0.5%-1% leeway.
Beyond that there is hardly any difference between 40 years and perpetual retirement (or endowments) in terms of 'safe' withdrawal rate.
And that is because for the past many years (100-200?) the actual real return on capital was about 3%.
Not sure where you're getting a whiff of propaganda.
I was simply answering why many early retirees here are considering periods like 40 years or more, as opposed to the standard 30 years used in the models with a retirement age of 65.
There are two concerns I have with the media emphasis on planning for extremely long lifespans in retirement.
First, this theme provides cover to politicians and governments not to keep promises made to citizens regarding retirement plans. Basically, telling people that since everybody is living to these unexpectedly long ages today, we can't possibly pay off on Social Security, pensions, etc.
Second is that such long and increasing lifespans apply only to the upper and upper middle classes in the US. The second of these is well represented among both ER readers and members of the news media. It is looking like under half the men I grew up with in a declining 1970s NYC neighborhood will get to be 65. While I haven't shared the self-destructive habits common to many of them, that period has left its marks on me as well.
Overall lifespans in the US have probably peaked.
Well - it just seems that you are making a link between the longer periods planned for by the early retirees on this forum, to the longevity stories pushed by the media, etc. They are not related.There are two concerns I have with the media emphasis on planning for extremely long lifespans in retirement.
First, this theme provides cover to politicians and governments not to keep promises made to citizens regarding retirement plans. Basically, telling people that since everybody is living to these unexpectedly long ages today, we can't possibly pay off on Social Security, pensions, etc.
Second is that such long and increasing lifespans apply only to the upper and upper middle classes in the US. The second of these is well represented among both ER readers and members of the news media. It is looking like under half the men I grew up with in a declining 1970s NYC neighborhood will get to be 65. While I haven't shared the self-destructive habits common to many of them, that period has left its marks on me as well.
Overall lifespans in the US have probably peaked.