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Old 10-18-2009, 10:56 PM   #61
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Same situation except already ERed. We'll see if I get up the gumption to move before prices go up again or stocks collapse. I'm so glad I didn't buy a couple of years ago. I wish I could DCA into a house.
You can! Buy some lumber this month, a couple of toilets and sinks next month, ......
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Old 10-18-2009, 11:10 PM   #62
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I wish I could DCA into a house.
You can do that with mortgage payments, as long as you maintain at least the required minimum monthly DCA...
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Old 10-19-2009, 10:42 AM   #63
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You can do that with mortgage payments, as long as you maintain at least the required minimum monthly DCA...
Good one. I have never thought of expressing it that way!

heh heh heh - DCA until 2045, age 92 here. .
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Old 10-19-2009, 07:41 PM   #64
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Porky bellies my friend. Lets keep that between us.
OK! Pork bellies it is. But why keep it a secret? Let's scream on top of our lungs. "PORK BELLIES! BUY, BUY, BUY".

Well, I have no pork bellies yet, but today my beloved nerdy stocks (semiconductor and tech stocks) have recovered and help propel my portfolio to a new high for 2009. Material and mining stocks also move higher. So far, so good. BUY, BUY, BUY ...

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I wish I could DCA into a house.
I think you meant that you wanted to avoid paying high prices for a house at the top of the market, and to be able to "accumulate" a house at varying prices as one does with stocks.

Well, if so, I don't think house prices will get much lower than where they are now. They probably won't get to nosebleed altitudes like in 2006 any time soon, but I would buy now if I needed a place to live.
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Old 10-19-2009, 08:18 PM   #65
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You can do that with mortgage payments, as long as you maintain at least the required minimum monthly DCA...
I hadn't thought of it that way before... interesting. But the front-end load, back-end load (realtor and bank fees yada yada) and "management fee" (interest and house maintenance) are killer. I'm a passive investor, a polite way of saying I'm a lazy bum. And so far it's worked for me.

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I think you meant that you wanted to avoid paying high prices for a house at the top of the market, and to be able to "accumulate" a house at varying prices as one does with stocks.

Well, if so, I don't think house prices will get much lower than where they are now. They probably won't get to nosebleed altitudes like in 2006 any time soon, but I would buy now if I needed a place to live.
Yeah, I tend to agree about the first part - the 2nd part, I'm not sure, for the location I am interested in moving to. I may have to rent there awhile to find out.

In the meantime, back to the original thread, Woo-Hoo! The possibility is now back!!!
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Old 10-19-2009, 09:30 PM   #66
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OK! Pork bellies it is. But why keep it a secret? Let's scream on top of our lungs. "PORK BELLIES! BUY, BUY, BUY".

Well, I have no pork bellies yet, but today my beloved nerdy stocks (semiconductor and tech stocks) have recovered and help propel my portfolio to a new high for 2009. Material and mining stocks also move higher. So far, so good. BUY, BUY, BUY ...



I think you meant that you wanted to avoid paying high prices for a house at the top of the market, and to be able to "accumulate" a house at varying prices as one does with stocks.

Well, if so, I don't think house prices will get much lower than where they are now. They probably won't get to nosebleed altitudes like in 2006 any time soon, but I would buy now if I needed a place to live.

Look how much money Madoff made by keeping things hush hush and special. Come on work with me here. Make it select and special. Gets more people that way

Ignore the fact he went to jail. Just one fish out of many who got away.
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Old 10-19-2009, 09:34 PM   #67
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This thread is very likely the stun gun in the abattoir. We are stumbling down the chute.
The rally is on borrowed time.

A few months from now the all-cash people will be back telling us how clever they are.

However I refuse to sell any more appreciated stocks not only because of the taxes that would be due, (especially since much of the gain would be short term) but also for the hidden taxes like much higher Medicare premiums. I have my eye on that $85,000 AGI as adjusted by adding back non taxable interest.

I do have enough cash that I will have firepower if good stocks again seem cheap. And I don't have any fundamentally vulnerable stocks or bonds this time around, (unlike last time!!). Although as we all have learned all stocks are price vulnerable.

Ha
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Old 10-19-2009, 10:34 PM   #68
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This thread is very likely the stun gun in the abattoir. We are stumbling down the chute.
The rally is on borrowed time.

A few months from now the all-cash people will be back telling us how clever they are.

Ha
I am not so pessimistic. I have quite a bit of foreign equities and also US multi-nationals. I am going to take my chances with 71% equities now and want to ride it higher before selling rebalancing.

Regarding the cash people, they should be doing OK too. It's a great country where one can invest however one likes. However, it's the bears shorting the market that I wonder about.
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Old 10-19-2009, 10:42 PM   #69
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I am not so pessimistic. I have quite a bit of foreign equities and also US multi-nationals. I am going to take my chances with 71% equities now and want to ride it higher before selling.

Regarding the cash people, they should be doing OK too. It's a great country where one can invest however one likes. However, it's the bears shorting the market that I wonder about.
Yeah I think its easy to be a bear after the huge rebound. Who knows what will happen.
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Old 10-19-2009, 10:57 PM   #70
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No one has come forward to claim to short the market now, but some did a few months ago. Those are the people that I wonder if they have covered. They sure had the courage to follow their convictions. If proven wrong this time, they are not any more wrong than the bulls who clinged to their stocks, myself included, in 2008. I did sell some late last year, so that I had money to buy something back this year, thanks goodness. There were also people who rode the financials all the way down, remember?

Ah, the tug of war between bulls and bears. It is far easier to be like unclemick, but I like to do some CMT and switch side whenever I feel like it. No loyalty whatsoever.
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Old 10-21-2009, 10:08 AM   #71
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Nah, I have no need for pork bellies, nor anything from beavers.

Freeport-McMoran reported earnings, delivering an EPS of $2.07 vs. $1.34 as expected. Oh, how I love the smell of money in the morning.

It's too bad I have to log off now to go to w*rk, else would stay around here to BS some more.
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Old 10-28-2009, 09:22 AM   #72
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We've been jinxed again by the woo hoo posts !
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Old 10-28-2009, 10:10 AM   #73
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Yep, and Sir Ha was right.

Good thing I have not bought that class A RV. Changing my search criteria on RVTrader to popup tent trailer...
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Old 10-28-2009, 03:50 PM   #74
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Can we all agree to retire wheee and woo-hoo? Those guys suck....
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Old 10-28-2009, 04:02 PM   #75
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I have accepted that any form of market timing is looked upon negatively by most of us, but IMO there is still a place for rational thinking. In other words, I cannot change the returns offered to me but I can decide whether or not to take the bets offered.

The difficlutly is that our entire political system is working overtime to prop up asset values, or said another way, our political system is working overtime to hold down returns.

It appears unending, but it is also likely highly volatile.

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Old 10-28-2009, 04:19 PM   #76
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We've been jinxed again by the woo hoo posts !
I think it has as much to do with a superstitious market and the psychology of the difficulty reaching *and keeping* that extra digit on the Dow as anything. It seems silly and illogical, but there are eight decades of history supporting it to some degree.

The Dow first hit 100 in 1906. It didn't *hold* 100 until 1943 -- 37 years later.

The Dow was five measly points from hitting 1000 in 1966. It didn't get those five points until 1972 and it didn't *hold* 1000 until 1982 -- 16 years after flirting with 1000.

The Dow first hit 10,000 in 1999, then crashed below it in 2000 only to retake it in 2004 -- only to crash way below it in 2008. And then it retook 10000 for a few days last week and now it's retreating again. It's been 10 years and counting...

At some point we'll retake 10,000 for good, but it feels to me like too many traders remember their history. And maybe I'm wrong, but it felt like a good time for me to rebalance a bit out of equities and drop my AA to 55/45 as well. If that makes me a bit of a "dirty market timer," so be it but it also feels like the market is getting WAY ahead of the economy, not just the usual several months ahead of it.
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Old 10-28-2009, 04:36 PM   #77
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For those of us accumulating the longer we bounce around below 10,000 the better. I haven't been buying equities lately. Not because I'm timing, just because my AA required I buy bonds to keep up with the increased value of my equities. Funny how that works, I don't even need a newsletter .

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Old 10-28-2009, 08:28 PM   #78
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This thread is very likely the stun gun in the abattoir. We are stumbling down the chute.
The rally is on borrowed time.

A few months from now the all-cash people will be back telling us how clever they are.
Sure am glad I'm still mostly in cash!

Of course, that's mostly due to analysis paralysis. I'm in the process of DCAing into my AA, but since my former FA kept convincing me not to have ANY bonds in my portfolio, I'm buying bonds now to get in sync. Hopefully by the time I'm ready to start averaging in equities again they'll be at a more reasonable valuation considering the state of the economy. So go ahead and woo-hoo and whee for a while longer. I need the discount. But even if it doesn't happen, I'm sticking with my plan.
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Old 10-28-2009, 08:46 PM   #79
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Sure am glad I'm still mostly in cash!
You still got cash? My man, then buy, buy, buy. You blew your chance in March 09, now the market just gave you another chance.

The country, no the world, needs a few good courageous buyers of stocks. Step right up and click on BUY, right here. Just a flick of your index finger. We can all become winners.
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Old 10-29-2009, 07:05 PM   #80
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What happened? No follow up post? Didn't the market movement leave us all speechless?

I was down 2% yesterday, despite being only 70% in equities. Made back most of it today! I have not made any trade rebalancing in a couple of months now, and will not be for a while.

One of my positions, GoodYear, got hammered yesterday and today after its earnings report. But with it being less than 0.5% of the portfolio, I can stand the pain and be able to watch in amazement. It must be that people with cars and RVs, yes those class As with expensive tires, have been delaying replacement of their tires. They will just have to learn it the hard way. Let's see if they would remember that the right corrective action is to step on the gas after a blowout.
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