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Old 10-06-2008, 10:14 AM   #21
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Every stock thats sold is being bought by somebody right
In the case of forced selling, the stock price just keeps dropping until it finally attracts a buyer.

Realize that this brutal selloff is occurring on very low volume. Most of the usual market players are just waiting on the sidelines. The only ones trading are forced sellers and reluctant buyers.

Audrey
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:15 AM   #22
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About 70/30 to start -- now about 55/45 without any rebalancing at all...
Wow, that's quite a shift. Are you going to rebalance?
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:17 AM   #23
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Dirty market timers might say it's about time to go all in. Me? I'm just learning how to type while curled in the fetal position, sucking my thumb.
there's another position for even worse *gulp* market condition........bending over
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:21 AM   #24
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Wow, that's quite a shift. Are you going to rebalance?
As I mentioned before, I really should. I just can't get myself to reach for that rapidly plunging dagger.
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:25 AM   #25
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I still don't get how you can sell something if no one is buying?
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:26 AM   #26
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As I mentioned before, I really should. I just can't get myself to reach for that rapidly plunging dagger.
I'm just standing back imagining I can hear those Vanguard computers merrily humming away rebalancing my Target Retirement.

heh heh heh - should I toss in a Pssst - Wellesley for good measure?
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:27 AM   #27
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Will the tin foil hat work better If I shave my head first
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:38 AM   #28
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I can't wait for the DOW to get back to 14,000 and look back at all this.
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:44 AM   #29
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In the case of forced selling, the stock price just keeps dropping until it finally attracts a buyer.

Realize that this brutal selloff is occurring on very low volume. Most of the usual market players are just waiting on the sidelines. The only ones trading are forced sellers and reluctant buyers.

Audrey

it's not that low but if this was the end of the world you would expect extremely high volume.

one of my trading blogs the author said you spot a real capitulation day when the index drop at the open, then rally, fall again but not below the previous low for the day, rally, fall a bit more and start to rally around 12:30pm or a little later in the afternoon.
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:53 AM   #30
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Where are all the tinfoil hats and caches of ammo jokes that were so common over here in this forum?
I dunno ... maybe all those guys jumped out of their office windows?
Tin-foil hats, ammo, canned goods ... we should add trampolines to the apocalypse "must have" list ...

Let's party like it's 1999!
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:55 AM   #31
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Let's party like it's 1999!
I think you may be partying 70 years too late.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:15 AM   #32
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Good job on oil today Ziggy.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:21 AM   #33
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Not sure it means anything, but it is a little scary.

The Dow first cracked 100 in 1916. It didn't permanently stay above 100 until 1938.

The Dow first cracked 1000 in 1972 (and was as high as 995 in 1966). It didn't permanently hold 1000 until 1982.

The Dow first cracked 10,000 in 1999. And now, nearly a decade later, it's back under 10,000.

The round numbers seem like they should just be symbolic, but for some reason, the market has historically had a terrible time holding the milestones.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:21 AM   #34
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I still don't get how you can sell something if no one is buying?
I didn't say there were NO buyers. I said there were few buyers. And they are reluctant buyers, so that only the most desperate sellers are able to unload their stocks.

Audrey
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:24 AM   #35
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I still don't get how you can sell something if no one is buying?
Every trade requires a buyer and a seller. But when buyers don't want to come out, you have to keep dropping the price lower and lower until you get a nibble.

Same as in a bull market (remember those?) -- people want in, but people who are currently long may not sell unless they can coax the price higher and higher until they are willing to sell their shares.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:36 AM   #36
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Got lucky? Sold, or settled i guess, VFWIX friday, just plonked the same amount into VWO this morning. So we take a tax loss and move our all world exUS foreign fund into an iffier developing market ETF. More a thought experiment than investment move, as we barely have enough in the market to feed a coupla parakeets. I feel for those of you with your whole retirement in the market - scary times! 'Course no one is buying our rental property so i can quit dealing with meth-boy and the po' house singers, but at least some rent is still coming in.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:49 AM   #37
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Hmmmm - it does look like the volume is improving while we are at these lower levels, so I guess we have even more desperate sellers coming in.

Audrey
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:53 AM   #38
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I can't wait for the DOW to get back to 14,000 and look back at all this.
I'm not sure I will see it again in my lifetime. Oh well, life is still good. Took my dog on a long walk this morning. Beautiful morning too. And I have not turned on CNBC at all. Don't plan to ever watch it again.

I just ran my numbers through FireCalc and I'm still at a 100% success rate. That's also assuming the the DOW will drop another 3,500 points from here. I also projected SS being cut 25%. Hopefully that won't happen but I'm 8 years away so anything is possible.

Doom and gloom, don't you love it?
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:57 AM   #39
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I'm not sure I will see it again in my lifetime.
You must be in your mid eighties then.
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Old 10-06-2008, 12:03 PM   #40
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You must be in your mid eighties then.
Nope.
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