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Old 10-06-2008, 04:36 PM   #61
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Dow has bounced back, which almost disappoints me. I was hoping to get the capitulation over with and behind us.
Actually, "capitulation" usually does happen mid-day. I'm just not sure we saw the volume to claim it.
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Old 10-06-2008, 04:42 PM   #62
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Its been brutal! Could get worse.
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Old 10-06-2008, 04:49 PM   #63
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Every trade requires a buyer and a seller. But when buyers don't want to come out, you have to keep dropping the price lower and lower until you get a nibble.
Which is essentially what has been happening in the real estate market ... and what will soon happen in the secondhand market for toys non-essential chattels (boats, airplanes, sports cars, big-screen televisions, etc.).
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Old 10-06-2008, 05:23 PM   #64
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Saw this a article bit ago:

Did Cramer cause today's market drop?

Pretty funny; maybe capitulation really is near.

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The host of CNBC's "Mad Money" went on the Today show Monday and told investors to get out.

"Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week," he said. "I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now.

Cramer is predicting that the market could fall by as much as 20%. If you can hold off and leave your money in place for the long term, he said, then ride it out. But he's worried about the short-term fallout.
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Old 10-06-2008, 06:34 PM   #65
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means the bottom is in

i read his autobiography and as soon as cramer ran for cover in 1987 and 1998 the market hit bottom
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Old 10-06-2008, 06:35 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by ziggy29 View Post
Actually, "capitulation" usually does happen mid-day. I'm just not sure we saw the volume to claim it.
ECB came out and hinted they will cut rates. just like 1998
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Old 10-06-2008, 06:38 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by IBWino View Post
Saw this a article bit ago:

Did Cramer cause today's market drop?

Pretty funny; maybe capitulation really is near.
The host of CNBC's "Mad Money" went on the Today show Monday and told investors to get out.

"Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week," he said. "I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now.

Cramer is predicting that the market could fall by as much as 20%. If you can hold off and leave your money in place for the long term, he said, then ride it out. But he's worried about the short-term fallout.


A little late, but I understand what he is saying. If you have plenty of cash or income to work with for the next few years, stay in. That has been my thinking, although I wish I had gone to 100% cd's last fall. But that's easy to say now.
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:29 PM   #68
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I am going to watch CNBC and Cramer.
I don't normally, but it will be good for me to become a bit more hardened to their scare tactics. Besides, how can I deride them if I don't watch?
I've never watched Cramer, but that doesn't make me feel a bit guilty about deriding him!
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:50 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IBWino View Post
Saw this a article bit ago:

Did Cramer cause today's market drop?

Pretty funny; maybe capitulation really is near.


Quote:
...
"Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week," he said. "I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market right now.”...
Well all I can say is, Duh!!! I mean really, anybody who has any kind of sense and reads/listens to any kind of good advice knows that you shouldn't have that money (i.e. short term) in the market. And anybody who still has that money in the market at this point is just a fool. Thanks for the wonderful advice Cramer!

Was he telling people a couple months ago (or one year ago for that matter) to keep that kind of short term money in the market? Who listens to this blowhard anyway?
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Old 10-06-2008, 09:58 PM   #70
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means the bottom is in

i read his autobiography and as soon as cramer ran for cover in 1987 and 1998 the market hit bottom
Did I miss the sarcasm? Or are you suggesting that 1) he's claiming that he identified the bottom in 87 and 98, and 2) that past performance is a guarantee of future results?
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:01 PM   #71
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A little late, but I understand what he is saying. If you have plenty of cash or income to work with for the next few years, stay in. That has been my thinking, although I wish I had gone to 100% cd's last fall. But that's easy to say now.
Didn't you opt for the "do-over" option with your brokerage account? It's really handy not having to get it right the first time!
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:05 PM   #72
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he identified the bottom in 87 and 98
Having mistakenly followed Cramer in 98, I can say with some certainty that he was screaming for everyone to get out in 98 right around the time things turned around.

Pretty much "nothing works, this market is awful, get out".
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:13 PM   #73
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Plunge Protection Team

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Every stock thats sold is being bought by somebody right
Maybe these guys are the only buyers:

The Washington Independent The Plunge Protection Team
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:39 PM   #74
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Where are all the tinfoil hats and caches of ammo jokes that were so common over here in this forum?
I had been wondering the exact same thing. You've made a very valid point!
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Old 10-06-2008, 10:46 PM   #75
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one of my trading blogs the author said you spot a real capitulation day when the index drop at the open, then rally, fall again but not below the previous low for the day, rally, fall a bit more and start to rally around 12:30pm or a little later in the afternoon.
He's pulling your leg.
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Old 10-06-2008, 11:00 PM   #76
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I had been wondering the exact same thing. You've made a very valid point!
Eh, we'll be making the same jokes again by the end of 2009.
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Old 10-07-2008, 07:39 AM   #77
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Did I miss the sarcasm? Or are you suggesting that 1) he's claiming that he identified the bottom in 87 and 98, and 2) that past performance is a guarantee of future results?
when cramer is scared and tells you to get out, that's probably a good indication of a bottom

1987 he just started his hedge fund right before the crash and almost closed it there

1998 he was losing a lot of money and he used to blog back then on thestreet.com. at the bottom he blogged "get out, get out now" and 10 minutes later the market turns around.

yesterday he tells everyone to pull money out now. not just to move a bit to cash, but to pull everything out.
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Old 10-07-2008, 06:59 PM   #78
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DOW 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000...

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yesterday he tells everyone to pull money out now. not just to move a bit to cash, but to pull everything out.
I didn't pull it all out. Just enough to win the turkey...
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:32 AM   #79
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Not sure it means anything, but it is a little scary.

The Dow first cracked 100 in 1916. It didn't permanently stay above 100 until 1938.

The Dow first cracked 1000 in 1972 (and was as high as 995 in 1966). It didn't permanently hold 1000 until 1982.

The Dow first cracked 10,000 in 1999. And now, nearly a decade later, it's back under 10,000.

The round numbers seem like they should just be symbolic, but for some reason, the market has historically had a terrible time holding the milestones.
The fact that they're round numbers is somewhat symbolic. But it shows the market got over extended/over valued, and it took a long time to work off the excesses.

The DOW went straight up in the 50's to the mid 60's high of abotu 1,000.

The DOW in the 80's and 90's went almost straight up from 1,000 to 10,000, with a few corrections along the way.

I don't like saying it, but I think in 2018, 2020, the market may still bob around 10,000. Maybe much later...2025? The 80's and 90's bubble was so huge.
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Old 10-08-2008, 02:42 AM   #80
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when cramer is scared and tells you to get out, that's probably a good indication of a bottom

1987 he just started his hedge fund right before the crash and almost closed it there

1998 he was losing a lot of money and he used to blog back then on thestreet.com. at the bottom he blogged "get out, get out now" and 10 minutes later the market turns around.

yesterday he tells everyone to pull money out now. not just to move a bit to cash, but to pull everything out.
Cramer is a joke. The fact that he's still on tv....why would anyone listen to him or take him seriously?

I remember the 98 to 00 period (I use to watch CNBC and actually believe it...scary!). And watch Fox News.

-Took thestreet.com public in the 90's mania. look where that went.

-I remember when he first started "Actions Alert Plus". A bunch of stocks like EMC, just craziness. And a bunch of symbols no one remembers anymore...JDSU? Just don't sell us.

-His infamous 98 bottom call.

Basically a guy that rode the 80's and 90's bull market. He's never seen a real bear market. Screams sell at the bottom.

Funny CNBC never tells you about his past calls....
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