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Wow! Re the market, from today's NYTimes, business section
Old 02-04-2016, 06:42 PM   #1
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Wow! Re the market, from today's NYTimes, business section

“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”

This seems a bit extreme, doesn't it? Of course, absolutely anything can ALWAYS happen.
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Old 02-04-2016, 06:57 PM   #2
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His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.
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Old 02-04-2016, 06:57 PM   #3
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I'm shocked, shocked to hear this has been going on.
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Old 02-04-2016, 07:00 PM   #4
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If his clients do as he says, he still charges a 1% fee ( or whatever he charges ), and he can go to the Bahamas for the entire summer, since he doesn't have to do research or analysis, follow the market, or trade.

Sound like a smart but self serving strategy.
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Old 02-04-2016, 07:03 PM   #5
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His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.
True. But he can get new clients. Rinse and repeat.
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Old 02-04-2016, 07:37 PM   #6
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Interesting week coming up...
China FX reserve numbers on Sunday Feb 7, Markets closed for Chinese Lunar New Year all next week.
Possible moment of truth. Serious event... US markets left to balance change, and nervous time for asset managers, until China comes back on-line.

Monday morning could be interesting... or not.
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Old 02-04-2016, 08:38 PM   #7
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His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.

+1
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Old 02-04-2016, 08:56 PM   #8
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His clients will be pissed if he's wrong.

I'll stick with my 60/40 asset allocation... that 40% should let me ride out a recession.
+1. Not because I have same AA but because jumping left and right usually lead to higher losses.
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Old 02-04-2016, 11:12 PM   #9
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“I’ve been telling clients to be in all cash,” said Ian Winer, co-head of equities trading at Wedbush Securities. “There’s too much credit risk out there, S.&P. 500 earnings could be down this year and it seems an increasing possibility that the U.S. could be in a recession in 2017.”
Yes, S&P500 earnings could be down. So what else is new? It's either up, or it is down. Sort of like a rollercoaster sometimes.

Yes, there is a possibility of a recession in 2017. There also has been a possibility of a recession in every year. There is also a possibility of no recession.

Nothing that he said persuades me to bail on the stock market and go to all cash, and I'm pretty risk averse.
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Old 02-04-2016, 11:20 PM   #10
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Recommend 100% cash long enough and you'll be a genius. Eventually. For a short period of time.
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Old 02-05-2016, 03:00 AM   #11
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There is a talking head for every possible outcome. Some will look like geniuses(they are not) and some will not look like geniuses(true). Better to ignore all this noise.
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Old 02-05-2016, 06:02 AM   #12
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I am going to stay the course. I may be on the right side by going to cash now, but likely I will be on the wrong side on the way up.

Likely, as soon as I sell, it will be the signal for the market to say "all clear" and move to new records.
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Old 02-05-2016, 06:03 AM   #13
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Being 100% in cash is like betting against the long term market. Similar to betting against the house in Vegas. You're probably going to lose.

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Old 02-05-2016, 06:05 AM   #14
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Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
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Old 02-05-2016, 06:21 AM   #15
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Economists have predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.
That right there tickled my funny bone!
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Old 02-05-2016, 07:19 AM   #16
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Monday morning could be interesting... or not.
Well done, that statement covers 100% of the possible scenarios.
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Old 02-05-2016, 07:38 AM   #17
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If he is that pessimistic, why not follow his conviction and put a big % in treasuries if expecting the market to dump. Certainly interest rates won't be headed up in that environment.
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Old 02-05-2016, 09:13 AM   #18
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Despite the obvious seemingly bad idea, for many members of this forum, to follow such advice, I have a coworker who did follow this advice and is all in cash. He is my boss. A very intelligent man otherwise. He followed this advice during the great recession in 2008 and has been in all cash ever since. He probably out earns me by at least 2X but, judging by what he has told me, he has a lot less saved for retirement then my family does.

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Old 02-05-2016, 09:55 AM   #19
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I have friends that are financial professionals and they are now wondering if "China is oversold"....whether "S&P 500" is over sold and when would be the time to buy and sell. I told them I bought Vanguard Total Stock market because my allocation was now off a bit. The response was a rather derisory "well anyone can rebalance". And that's exactly the point, anyone can do it and that really annoys financial professionals. I'm sticking with at least 70% equities and I'll probably let it drift up to 80% over then next decade because I have a liability matching portfolio.
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Old 02-05-2016, 10:11 AM   #20
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I am going to stay the course. I may be on the right side by going to cash now, but likely I will be on the wrong side on the way up.

Likely, as soon as I sell, it will be the signal for the market to say "all clear" and move to new records.

Absolutely agree. My position as well.
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