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Old 07-07-2008, 10:06 PM   #21
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Nobody is able to consistently time the market. You're in, so stay in. The market will come back, it always has. Whether that will happen before you need the money is the only unknown.
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Old 07-07-2008, 11:29 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by ItDontMeanAThing View Post
Nobody is able to consistently time the market. You're in, so stay in. The market will come back, it always has. Whether that will happen before you need the money is the only unknown.

Like if Zombies attack. Anyone read WWZ? Great read. That would really "kill" your retirement..
ahahahaha!

ah..ahem..ok sorry
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Old 07-09-2008, 03:15 PM   #23
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I got invested around 2001 and preceded in losing 100K. It took 6-7 yrs to get that back.
If you are in the accumulation phase, you have a heck of an easier time than people trying to live off their portfolio, particularly the group without pension that I am going to join. If I may, I'd like to offer my own experience, if that can cheer you up.

From top of market in 3/2000 to bottom in 10/2002, my total NW (house not included) went down 50%, which was a whole lot more than $100K. I don't know what your percentage is, but this can turn into "my loss is bigger than your loss" thread, which may be comforting to some.

However, I recovered and then some. It appears you are diversified but try to pick your own stock, like I do. If so, it is worthwhile to benchmark yourself against some good mutual funds with long records. I even own a potpourri of them, because "past performance" is never guaranteed, and I want to "race" them. I rarely even balanced them (may be I should, but too lazy). I limit my own "play sand portfolio" to 33% of my total to keep from losing it all.

After all the research into different sectors, a bit of market timing, buy/sell a bit of options, but not daytrade, so far my own performance is roughly about the middle of my mutual fund groups. I often wonder why I even bother. Why not just divide among a few low-cost mutual funds and call it quit?

The truth is I enjoy researching a bit about different industries in my own naive way. I found out there is a big world out there, outside of the industry my big engineering corp is in. A nerdy guy like me would have no other incentive to explore the world. So, I may keep doing it.
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Old 07-09-2008, 10:20 PM   #24
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2003 through 2007 was a pretty darn good bull run! I retired in late 1999. My portfolio had recovered entirely by the end of 2003, and then went on to increase substantially over the next several years.

I guess those of us who retired in 1999, are now privileged to go through TWO bear markets within the FIRST decade of retirement! Wow! Still, our portfolio is larger now than it was in early 2003 and at the end of 1999, and I'm hoping (knock on wood!) that we will be rewarded by another nice recovery again within a year or two.

I guess if you are 100% invested in the stock market averages, the recoveries can take an extremely long time. But if you are in a diversified portfolio and rebalance your portfolio now and then, recoveries shouldn't take nearly as long.

Audrey
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Old 07-09-2008, 10:49 PM   #25
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I truly wish I could believe that the vast majority of US investors are losing at the rate we are.
Misery loves company?

Ha
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Old 07-10-2008, 01:08 AM   #26
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2003 through 2007 was a pretty darn good bull run! Audrey
Yes.

When a beginner, I did not realize that investing is a continuing process. Where is the beginning, and where is the end? If I use an earlier point somewhere in the 90's as the beginning, I can say I never lost money. The market had such a long bull run in the 90s.

I like to use the March 2000 high watermark as the reference because that was the peak of dotcom mania. It was also the top of my portfolio, which I personally loaded with semiconductor and tech stocks. GalliumArsenide, IndiumPhosphide stuff, I got them all. As an engineer, I was dazzled by all that wonderful technology. What a ride up!

Well, the market gives, then the market takes. Realizing my mistakes, I made amendments, and was returned to the old watermark in Nov 2004. I just looked up my records. If I did not get out of silicon chips, and rotate into plain old potato chips (figuratively speaking), I would not recover. The NASDAQ never went back to its old high. The rest was all a cushy ride, up till recently.

What is ahead? I know that's what makes life exciting, but once I ER'ed, I don't want it to become "life threatening".
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