Xtreme ER ..

Chris24 · 04-04-2006, 04:49 PM

... anyone doing it?

For this board that would be, taking a withdrawl rate greater that 4%.

Curious to here if anyone would be satisfied with a 80 to 90% success rate from FIRE. I think even Berntsien wrote, trying to do better than a 90% success rate may be folly. (I think it was in one of his quarterly reports).

I enjoy the disscusion here, and have learned alot. I have read all the books, .. But ... it's all abit too conservitive for me.

I'll have a good lump by the end of this year, and by golly I plan to spend some. I may even try 7% for the first few years and adjust from there. Until I find where I am comfortable with things. Call me wild and crazy if you want. I don't want to be "frozen" in the transition, ~2 years, by feeling I am failling if I go over 4%. I'm disciplined to a point, and not risk adverse.

Sometimes life is just to short to worry about if I have enough money for depends 30 years from now.

ESRBob · 04-04-2006, 05:02 PM

Chris,
If you only need 7% for a couple transition years, that is one thing. But if you are hoping to use a 7% withdrawal for the long term, my strong sense is that it will make sense only until the markets start hitting a rough patch. At that point, you'll see your portfolio getting hit from both ends -- withdrawals and depreciation, and you'll wear a constant pit in the bottom of your stomach that will make FT Work seem like a pleasant alternative. Anyway that was my own ER's near-death experience in 2001, 2002 and much of 2003. I wouldn't wish it on anyone.

unclemick · 04-04-2006, 05:20 PM

Hmmmm

To recap some my ancient threads into one sentence: "wouldn't be prudent nor instructive."

I don't expect history to provide me with another 1990's market anytime soon nor the opportunity to 'accidently/involuntarily' take out 8% or so from DRIPs including div.'s due to mergers/spinoffs. I also don't recommend skipping health insurance.

To friends and relatives - I'm even more conservative tossing in the Norwegian widow for defense as well as Bogle/De Gaul.

There is no way I could repeat my experience or apply to someone else.

The studies/calculators are there for a reason. You can go higher by changing what you own - but risk/reward are joined at the hip to paraphrase Mr Bernstein.

haha · 04-04-2006, 05:21 PM

Hey Chris, stay in touch, for better or worse. You would be an experiement for the group. I am sure than if it works out well, lots of us will probably move toward your stance.

Ha

Chris24 · 04-04-2006, 05:36 PM

The, up to 7%, would be for a few years. Having assests deprecaite to infaltion, for me is easier to take, than taking a big hit to the assests. I have been living with depreciating wages for 6 years now, a big assest hit would make my bowels loose. I would be more apt to adapt.

I'm launched myself on this ski jump, I call ER. Rather than suffer the " the agony of defeat", i am going to keep the momentum going and hope to find the sweet spot, for the jump. The transition time will be finding the right arc and soft landing.

From my experiences, life is too uncertian to not enjoy the adventures it offers. ER is one I plan to enjoy, and make work. Just need to feel the wind in my hair the first few years. Going to ride the edge for awhile.

THanks everyone for all your insights and the reasearch you all do. I'll add my part as and let you know how the jump is going.

**REWahoo** · 04-04-2006, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris24

I'll add my part as and let you know how the jump is going.

Can mine canaries fly?

Happy landings, Chris.

Zipper · 04-04-2006, 05:43 PM

I've taken 5% of my year end balance since I was 54, 9 years ago.

I have a 60/40 split and it has worked for me.

unclemick · 04-04-2006, 05:53 PM

One more thing - a one year 'big bucks' temp job fell into my lap at two years into ER.

Good Luck - I mean it. Remember the Bear:

'agile, mobile and hostile.'

heh heh heh

Cool Dood · 04-04-2006, 06:16 PM

D'oh, I was going to start a topic today with the same title, only on a completely different subject, and with an "e" at the beginning

Mine was going to be, Is anybody else looking to EER, i.e. retire extremely early -- I see guys in their 50's and even 60's talking about how they'll retire early and just enjoy life... Isn't it a bit late?

Not that you can't still enjoy life, but personally I'd rather have my life from my twenties or thirties onward, if on a lower budget, than work away the best years of my life for -- a cottage? a second Lexus? ...? I've spent pretty much my whole time on this board wondering how exactly most of you guys even manage to spend so much money, I have a hard time spending even a third of what most of you spend, and I'm not doing any kind of "possum living" or even budgeting beyond half-assed attempts in my head where I probably confuse dollars and pound and ounces.......

Obviously people have different preferences, but to me it seems like retiring well into your middle-ages isn't really retiring early at all.

**REWahoo** · 04-04-2006, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cool Dood

D'oh, I was going to start a topic today with the same title, only on a completely different subject, and with an "e" at the beginning

Mine was going to be, Is anybody else looking to EER, i.e. retire extremely early -- I see guys in their 50's and even 60's talking about how they'll retire early and just enjoy life... Isn't it a bit late?

Not that you can't still enjoy life, but personally I'd rather have my life from my twenties or thirties onward, if on a lower budget, than work away the best years of my life for -- a cottage? a second Lexus? ...? I've spent pretty much my whole time on this board wondering how exactly most of you guys even manage to spend so much money, I have a hard time spending even a third of what most of you spend, and I'm not doing any kind of "possum living" or even budgeting beyond half-assed attempts in my head where I probably confuse dollars and pound and ounces.......

Obviously people have different preferences, but to me it seems like retiring well into your middle-ages isn't really retiring early at all.

Dood, retire yesterday if you can, but for most of us it took a little time to get into a position where we thought we could pull it off.

A point of order: Everyone on this forum retired well after the "middle-ages"

(well, maybe not Jarhead

).

Even those of us who retired in our 50's and early 60's consider our retirement as early when looking at the population in general. All the cr*p you read about 'saving for retirement' seems to assume people will retire at 65 or beyond, and if you can beat that, you've earned the right to be called an early retiree, IMHO.

haha · 04-04-2006, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cool Dood

D'oh, I was going to start a topic today with the same title, only on a completely different subject, and with an "e" at the beginning

Mine was going to be, Is anybody else looking to EER, i.e. retire extremely early -- I see guys in their 50's and even 60's talking about how they'll retire early and just enjoy life... Isn't it a bit late?

Obviously people have different preferences, but to me it seems like retiring well into your middle-ages isn't really retiring early at all.

I would not argue with that, Cool One. I say retire when you first get your driver's license. And if you can't make that, certainly no later than your first legal alcoholic beverage. Why wait? Work is sooo yesterday.

Ha

laurence · 04-04-2006, 07:02 PM

Last time we did a poll, there were many people planning on retiring in their 40's and a few shooting for late 30's. I think CuteFuzzyBunny made it out in his late 30's the lucky SOB. But unless you are planning on starting up a business or winning the lotto, earlier than that is kind of unrealistic, no time for compounding interest.

Do a budget more than half way in your head, get it on paper, tell us your net worth, give us an action plan to get you retired earlier than that.

Maybe I'll redo that poll....

Nords · 04-04-2006, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo!

A point of order: Everyone on this forum retired well after the "middle-ages"*

(well, maybe not Jarhead*

).*

Hey, I retired at 41, and I don't consider that any closer than a decade to "middle age"!!

laurence · 04-04-2006, 07:26 PM

Yes, retired military officer, that is a way to get out pretty early-if you invest while you are in, I think the pension alone would be a little tight. Plus you know you've earned it! :P

**REWahoo** · 04-04-2006, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords

Hey, I retired at 41, and I don't consider that any closer than a decade to "middle age"!!

Nords, no arguement here, but I think the moisture you've been exposed to for the past few weeks has dampened your joke receptors.

I said, with perhaps one notable exception we had all retired "after the middle-ages", as in after the period in European history known as the Middle Ages.

OK, so maybe it was a stretch...

ESRBob · 04-04-2006, 07:43 PM

Dood,
Come over to NY and spend a week shopping with DW and then you'll see how the $ can start to add up on the spending side. Then come down to the boatyard with me and see how the big bucks can fly. After that we'll swing by the School Administration Office and pay my semi-annual school tax on our way to dinner at a local restaurant.

I'm just living a middle class lifestyle but it can add up. If you are married or plan to get that way, and plan to have kids and so forth, it can move you up from wherever you thought you'd be. See that family on the plane in front of you? That's right -- they bought 4 seats and they don't give volume discounts (unfortunately!) But ER is still very doable. It just takes a few more years to get the $ together to make it work.

I also think it helps to remember what I ERd from. If I'd never had a chance to get into the ratrace and do all that stuff, I might always have some sort of twisted compulsion to go back and do that part of the lesson plan in the future. Now I've been there done that, I can really move forward into decades of something else. Might not apply to you at all, but it is one reason it isn't always a bad idea to ER after your 20s or 30s. (Nords beat me by a year -- 42 for me, 5 yrs ago.)

cute fuzzy bunny · 04-04-2006, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laurence

I think CuteFuzzyBunny made it out in his late 30's the lucky SOB. But unless you are planning on starting up a business or winning the lotto, earlier than that is kind of unrealistic, no time for compounding interest.

Yep, it was 39...but its a LOOONG time to plan an ER for. By the way, luck is not a factor.

Nords · 04-04-2006, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny

By the way, luck is not a factor.

Sure it is. The harder I work, the luckier I get.

Jarhead* · 04-04-2006, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo!

Nords, no arguement here, but I think the moisture you've been exposed to for the past few weeks has dampened your joke receptors.

I said, with perhaps one notable exception we had all retired "after the middle-ages", as in after the period in European history known as the Middle Ages.*

ReWahoo: I got it the first time.

Nords: Thanks a lot for forcing Wahoo to splain it to you.

04-04-2006, 04:49 PM	#1
Chris24 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 75	Xtreme ER .. ... anyone doing it? For this board that would be, taking a withdrawl rate greater that 4%. Curious to here if anyone would be satisfied with a 80 to 90% success rate from FIRE. I think even Berntsien wrote, trying to do better than a 90% success rate may be folly. (I think it was in one of his quarterly reports). I enjoy the disscusion here, and have learned alot. I have read all the books, .. But ... it's all abit too conservitive for me. I'll have a good lump by the end of this year, and by golly I plan to spend some. I may even try 7% for the first few years and adjust from there. Until I find where I am comfortable with things. Call me wild and crazy if you want. I don't want to be "frozen" in the transition, ~2 years, by feeling I am failling if I go over 4%. I'm disciplined to a point, and not risk adverse. Sometimes life is just to short to worry about if I have enough money for depends 30 years from now.

04-04-2006, 05:02 PM	#2
ESRBob Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 1,283	Re: Xtreme ER .. Chris, If you only need 7% for a couple transition years, that is one thing. But if you are hoping to use a 7% withdrawal for the long term, my strong sense is that it will make sense only until the markets start hitting a rough patch. At that point, you'll see your portfolio getting hit from both ends -- withdrawals and depreciation, and you'll wear a constant pit in the bottom of your stomach that will make FT Work seem like a pleasant alternative. Anyway that was my own ER's near-death experience in 2001, 2002 and much of 2003. I wouldn't wish it on anyone. __________________ ER for 8 years; living off 4.3% of savings (and a few book royalties ;-)

04-04-2006, 05:20 PM	#3
unclemick Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: north of Kansas City Posts: 5,641	Re: Xtreme ER .. Hmmmm To recap some my ancient threads into one sentence: "wouldn't be prudent nor instructive." I don't expect history to provide me with another 1990's market anytime soon nor the opportunity to 'accidently/involuntarily' take out 8% or so from DRIPs including div.'s due to mergers/spinoffs. I also don't recommend skipping health insurance. To friends and relatives - I'm even more conservative tossing in the Norwegian widow for defense as well as Bogle/De Gaul. There is no way I could repeat my experience or apply to someone else. The studies/calculators are there for a reason. You can go higher by changing what you own - but risk/reward are joined at the hip to paraphrase Mr Bernstein.

04-04-2006, 05:21 PM	#4
haha Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Seattle Posts: 8,803	Re: Xtreme ER .. Hey Chris, stay in touch, for better or worse. You would be an experiement for the group. I am sure than if it works out well, lots of us will probably move toward your stance. Ha __________________ "Show 'em just enough to win the turkey."- Former KY Governor Bert Combs

04-04-2006, 05:36 PM	#5
Chris24 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 75	Re: Xtreme ER .. The, up to 7%, would be for a few years. Having assests deprecaite to infaltion, for me is easier to take, than taking a big hit to the assests. I have been living with depreciating wages for 6 years now, a big assest hit would make my bowels loose. I would be more apt to adapt. I'm launched myself on this ski jump, I call ER. Rather than suffer the " the agony of defeat", i am going to keep the momentum going and hope to find the sweet spot, for the jump. The transition time will be finding the right arc and soft landing. From my experiences, life is too uncertian to not enjoy the adventures it offers. ER is one I plan to enjoy, and make work. Just need to feel the wind in my hair the first few years. Going to ride the edge for awhile. THanks everyone for all your insights and the reasearch you all do. I'll add my part as and let you know how the jump is going.

04-04-2006, 05:43 PM	#7
Zipper Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 802	Re: Xtreme ER .. I've taken 5% of my year end balance since I was 54, 9 years ago. I have a 60/40 split and it has worked for me.

04-04-2006, 05:53 PM	#8
unclemick Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ... Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: north of Kansas City Posts: 5,641	Re: Xtreme ER .. One more thing - a one year 'big bucks' temp job fell into my lap at two years into ER. Good Luck - I mean it. Remember the Bear: 'agile, mobile and hostile.' heh heh heh

04-04-2006, 06:16 PM	#9
Cool Dood Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 784	Re: Xtreme ER .. D'oh, I was going to start a topic today with the same title, only on a completely different subject, and with an "e" at the beginning Mine was going to be, Is anybody else looking to EER, i.e. retire extremely early -- I see guys in their 50's and even 60's talking about how they'll retire early and just enjoy life... Isn't it a bit late? Not that you can't still enjoy life, but personally I'd rather have my life from my twenties or thirties onward, if on a lower budget, than work away the best years of my life for -- a cottage? a second Lexus? ...? I've spent pretty much my whole time on this board wondering how exactly most of you guys even manage to spend so much money, I have a hard time spending even a third of what most of you spend, and I'm not doing any kind of "possum living" or even budgeting beyond half-assed attempts in my head where I probably confuse dollars and pound and ounces....... Obviously people have different preferences, but to me it seems like retiring well into your middle-ages isn't really retiring early at all.

04-04-2006, 07:02 PM	#12
laurence Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: San Diego Posts: 4,820	Re: Xtreme ER .. Last time we did a poll, there were many people planning on retiring in their 40's and a few shooting for late 30's. I think CuteFuzzyBunny made it out in his late 30's the lucky SOB. But unless you are planning on starting up a business or winning the lotto, earlier than that is kind of unrealistic, no time for compounding interest. Do a budget more than half way in your head, get it on paper, tell us your net worth, give us an action plan to get you retired earlier than that. Maybe I'll redo that poll....

04-04-2006, 07:26 PM	#14
laurence Moderator Emeritus Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: San Diego Posts: 4,820	Re: Xtreme ER .. Yes, retired military officer, that is a way to get out pretty early-if you invest while you are in, I think the pension alone would be a little tight. Plus you know you've earned it! :P

04-04-2006, 07:43 PM	#16
ESRBob Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 1,283	Re: Xtreme ER .. Dood, Come over to NY and spend a week shopping with DW and then you'll see how the $ can start to add up on the spending side. Then come down to the boatyard with me and see how the big bucks can fly. After that we'll swing by the School Administration Office and pay my semi-annual school tax on our way to dinner at a local restaurant. I'm just living a middle class lifestyle but it can add up. If you are married or plan to get that way, and plan to have kids and so forth, it can move you up from wherever you thought you'd be. See that family on the plane in front of you? That's right -- they bought 4 seats and they don't give volume discounts (unfortunately!) But ER is still very doable. It just takes a few more years to get the $ together to make it work. I also think it helps to remember what I ERd from. If I'd never had a chance to get into the ratrace and do all that stuff, I might always have some sort of twisted compulsion to go back and do that part of the lesson plan in the future. Now I've been there done that, I can really move forward into decades of something else. Might not apply to you at all, but it is one reason it isn't always a bad idea to ER after your 20s or 30s. (Nords beat me by a year -- 42 for me, 5 yrs ago.) __________________ ER for 8 years; living off 4.3% of savings (and a few book royalties ;-)