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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 06:14 AM   #81
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

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I briefly read the original Shiller paper in which he tried to convince the reader that the market was overvalued using a 10-year trailing average.
There is some historical merit to this metric. If a person had switched equity allocations based upon it in the past (from 1871 to the early 1990s), he would have improved his returns and withdrawal rates. The metric has not worked since the early 90s, as the market has risen in a roller coaster fashion in spite of valuations based upon it. Of course, no one knows if will work in the future or not. The market may be at a permanently higher plateau with regard to this metric, or it may just be temporarily distended by recent events. This is just one more piece of the puzzle to consider. Investment decisions should not be based upon a single factor.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 08:15 AM   #82
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Right, that's what I meant by too simplistic. It's relatively easy to fit the data to something like switching based on the 10-year moving average, but unless you discover that the number 10 is somehow magic, it has no predictive power.

The best predictor I have seen is to compare the E/P yield equivalent to the risk-free rate (essentially the fed model of fair value). One economist developed a switching model based on this idea, and also successfully back-tested it (it works best by looking at the short-term spread, but it also works by looking at the 10-year spread, which I believe is what the fed model uses).

While the model is still simplistic, I like it better than something like PE10 because it's a little less arbitrary than saying "10 is magic" and makes a fair amount of intuitive sense. Not only do stocks and bonds compete for capital, but the risk-free rate also correlates with inflation and fed monetary policy, both of which impact the stock market.

In the end, I agree that it would be naive to put too much faith in any model with so few inputs. And looking only at P/E ratios (or moving averages of P/E ratios) strikes me as naive in the extreme.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 09:12 AM   #83
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Cut-throat: *Remember that Templeton made that statement ("The most dangerous words in the investment business are, 'this time it's different'") to express that valuation DOES matter. *He was agreeing with ***** and the pessimists here.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 09:15 AM   #84
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Looking only at P/E ratios (or moving averages of P/E ratios) strikes me as naive in the extreme.

The data-based SWR tool is not a finished tool. In an earlier thread, I said that my perception is that we are in the third or fourth inning of this game. We have come a long way, but we still have a long way to go.

Look at where we were two years ago. Two years ago, there was hardly a suggestion voiced on any of the Retire Early boards that the 4 percent take-out number would not work for a high-percentage stock portfolio. Now there are widespread doubts; there are lots of informed posters saying today that, if you use that number, you had better build a good bit of slack into your plan. That is a significant step forward, in my view.

We do not today know the perfect way to calculate SWRs. I think that the Bernstein way is a lot better than the conventional methodology way. I also think that the JWR1945 way (which is not the same as the Bernstein way) is a lot better than the conventional methodology way. I expect that we are going to see a lot of other goods ways to calculate SWRs being put forward in days to come.

There is not one right way to calculate SWRs. As with many other fields of study, we need to allow different researchers to look at the question from different angles and to share whatever insights they develop with us.

My "cause," if you want to call it that, is to get us away from our old practice of thinking that the conventional methodology studies tell us all there is know about SWRs. There are lots of reasons for believing that the numbers generated by those studies are anything but "100 percent safe" for retirements beginning at the sorts of valuation levels that have applied since the late 1990s.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 10:11 AM   #85
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Remember that Templeton made that statement ("The most dangerous words in the investment business are, 'this time it's different'") to express that valuation DOES matter. He was agreeing with ***** and the pessimists here.

I much appreciate you making that point, Bongo2, but I want to make a nitpicky addendum to it. It is fair to refer to me as a "pessimist" re the long-term returns that stocks are liklely to provide for time-periods beginning in any of the years from the late 1990s through today. But I don't want people to think that the data-based SWR tool is some sort of dreary thing that paints stock investing in black terms.

The cool thing about the new tool is that it does not only report a lower SWR for retirements beginning in times of high valuation; it also reports a higher SWR for retirements beginning in times of low valuation. I expect to be moving a good bit of my money into stocks as the SWR for stocks climbs not only to 4 percent, but to 5 percent or 6 percent or more. What goes down can also go back up. There is lots of support in the data for the idea that, in the right circumstances, it is a highly safe practice to take a withdrawal of greater than 4 percent from a long-term stock investment.

Stocks are my favorite investment class. I don't want people to get the wrong idea about that just because I am pessimistic in my assessment of the sorts of returns that stocks will provide from today's valuation levels.

You often hear people say, "Oh, how will I ever be able to retire if the SWR for stocks is 2 percent?" The answer to that one is that it is not always going to be 2 percent. Invest to preserve your captial today, and you will be able to take advantage of the far higher SWRs that the historical data tells us are likely waiting for us not too far around the corner.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 10:44 AM   #86
 
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

*****,

Here is the Fly in the ointment. Stocks may never see the values you purport to seek in your lifetime. They may be overvalued by your definition for the next 35 years.

When Stock dividends fell below bond dividends in the 1950's, some people thought stocks were too expensive and never got back into stocks. They are still waiting.

I have seen other folks in other investment forums that were screaming that stocks were way to expensive when the Dow was at the 8,000 level.

I know lots of folks that thought that real estate was way too expensive in the 1970's.

Bottom line - You or no one else can predict the future or the markets.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 11:24 AM   #87
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Bottom line - You or no one else can predict the future or the markets.

I'll have William Bernstein make the case for the other point of view. The quotes below are from Chapter Two of "The Four Pillars of Investing."

Page 54: "This formula, which is known as the Gordon Equation, provides an accurate way to predict long-term stock market returns....The Gordon Equation is as close to being a physical law, like gravity or planetary motion, as we will ever encounter in finance."

Page 57: "Future long-term returns are quite accurately predicted by the Gordon Equation....But it seems that once every 30 years or so, investors tire of valuing stocks by these old-fashioned techniques and engage in orgies of unthinking speculation. Invariably, Fisher and Graham's lesson--not to overpay for stocks--is relearned in excrutiating slow motion in the years following the inevitable market crash."

Page 58: "The key point, which we'll return to again and again, is that the fundamental return of the stock market--the sum and dividends and dividend growth--is somewhat predictable, but only in the very long term. The short-term return of the market is purely speculative."

Page 55: "We've just acquired a much more valuable bit of knowledge. Think about it, which would you rather know: the market return for the next six months, or for the next 30 years? I don't know about you, but I'd much rather know the latter. And, within a reasonable margin or error, you can."

Page 72: The ability to estimate future stock and bond returns is perhaps the most critical of investment skills. In this chapter, we've reviewed a theoretical model that allows us to compute the expected returns of the major asset classes on an objective, mathematical basis."
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 01:28 PM   #88
 
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

*****,

All of this may be true, but your assumption that you will be able to get stocks cheaper than they are now may not be. Earnings may catch up to the market, and the market may only gain 3 percent real over the next 30 years.

You are hoping for stocks to drop to rock bottom prices, so that you can get a 10 percent real return. That may not happen, stock prices could be flat for 10 years. Bernstein, which you quote often, does not believe in Market timing for this reason. Because exactly like he said, you cannot predict the short term gains of the market, only the long term.

And what you are trying to do ***** is predict the short term of market fluctuations, rather than the long.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 02:30 PM   #89
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

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The best predictor I have seen is to compare the E/P yield equivalent to the risk-free rate (essentially the fed model of fair value).
I watch this metric also, but I am mindful that it did not work before about 1960. This raises the possibility that at some point in the future it may stop working again, but no one knows when.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 02:40 PM   #90
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

You are hoping for stocks to drop to rock bottom prices, so that you can get a 10 percent real return....And what you are trying to do ***** is predict the short term of market fluctuations, rather than the long.

You are moving on to the planning aspects of the question, and I very much would like to avoid a sustained discussion of those aspects at this time (because the discussion would get so lengthy). So I'll just make two brief responses that relate to the general feasibility of the data-based SWR tool.

My plan calls for a 4 percent take-out number. So if stock prices and dividend payout levels return to levels that are not great but something better than the worst ever seen in history, I'm in.

I have never made any effort whatsoever to predict short-term market fluctuations. I wouldn't know how to begin trying to do so.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 03:00 PM   #91
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

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Please define "extremely expensive." My impression is that the market's current (i.e., trailing) P/E isn't that bad right now. Basically, the indices are priced like they were at the start of the year, but earnings have gone up significantly this year, therefore the trailing P/E looks much better today than it did just a few months ago. And it looks a helluva lot better than it did in 2000.
I already did. "More than I want to pay" and "Expensive by many peoples perspectives as reported in the news media and by Poll". I guess ones definition of "not bad" is highly variable. By a number of metrics, they look 10-20% over fair price to me. But thats me and you can always find a metric that says what you want to hear. My best metric is general opinion, because as we've already discussed, the price of stocks is set by general opinion far moreso than a formula or chart.

Quote:
So you're saying that future earnings are unknown, that companies are guiding higher than they'll hit? That would be a first. It's simply not how the game is played. I seem to recall that you were upper-middle management, so I'm sure you know how the earnings game works. You can take those estimates of future earnings to the bank (and add a little extra for the unsurprsing upside surprise).
Yep, I reported to 2 division VP/GM's and the CTO. With that in mind, I make my statement about earnings. Last time I checked, earnings were given in a range, sometimes we hit the range, sometimes we didnt. Earnings look pretty anemic to me still compared to a few years back but then our overall expectations have been severely muted by the recession. I'm sure most people are fairly familiar with how earnings are "cooked". And dont even get me started on Worldcom, Enron, etc...the "must own blue chip" stocks of the late 90's. I think future earnings forecasts are something you can take to the bank, but you wont know the actual amount of deposit until a few years later...hope you're not still holding that bag. Certainly earnings GROWTH from the last few years looks pretty good. But while thats a mighty fine shine on a turd, its still a shiny turd.

Quote:
So now we're back to moving averages and RTM. Who knows, maybe you're right. To me that seems too simplistic, and if you want to be logically consistent, you should stay out of the market until RTM happens.
I didnt know we went away from it. I thought Bernstein pretty much proved this out with the Gordon Equation and its definitely evident in the history of our markets. Its starting to sound like we trust the future (earnings) more than a solid past trend. But then I know all these things are highly arguable...else we'd have nothing to talk about

Quote:
I have no idea what their proprietary model is, but you can be pretty certain it's not what the Bernstein Authority uses.
I read it on the morningstar web site. Seemed fairly straightforward. NPV discounted future cash flow. I may be way off base, but I thought that this wasnt that far from Bernsteins.

Quote:
You can also be *very* certain that the Buffett Authority wouldn't be telling you if he thought it was a good time to buy stocks. Perhaps he'll tell you after the fact, but unless you think the guy's a fool, don't assume you can infer his actions from his words.
Certainly not moment to moment, but we went through several years in the late 90's where his annual report said he could find no bargains in equities. Then in 2001 and 2002 he said he could. In 2003 he says he cant. We're not far pricewise from when he made his last statements.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 04:40 PM   #92
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

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By a number of metrics, they look 10-20% over fair price to me.
We're making progress, TH. You've gone from "valuations by the most elementary metrics are higher than they've ever been by far" to "extremely expensive" to 10-20% overvalued by popular opinion. I think we've converged to the point where I can stop badgering you

Quote:
I think future earnings forecasts are something you can take to the bank, but you wont know the actual amount of deposit until a few years later.
Well, I wasn't talking about individual companies. I believe studies have shown the earnings estimates of the overall market are consistently low. (Don't ask me for a reference.)

Quote:
I read it on the morningstar web site. *Seemed fairly straightforward. *NPV discounted future cash flow. *I may be way off base, but I thought that this wasnt that far from Bernsteins.
My understanding of discounted cash flow is that you need to project cash flow pretty far out into the future and come up with an estimate of a terminal value. That's hard to do accurately even in the best case, and near impossible to do for the market as a whole. Are you sure you aren't thinking of the discounted dividend model?
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-27-2004, 06:53 PM   #93
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

10-20% IS way overvalued!!!!! Remember I'm a cheap bastard!!!

Here's the stuff from Morningstar, who says today that the overall market is roughly 5-7% overvalued. Was at around 10-11% just recently. Headed back up again.

The DCF method is used for valuing stocks by todays prices...I thought the discounted dividend model was for determining future rate of return?

I think we were in agreement all along btw...

How about the other point...the one where metrics arent really that important, because people buy stocks when the majority THINKS they're cheap, and sell when the majority THINKS they're overpriced and headed for a fall.

Just a darn good thing we have goofballs like me that do buy and sell, or the damn thing wouldnt move at all...

Morningstar:
We estimate the fair value of each stock using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model which we developed in-house at Morningstar. Such models assume that the value of a stock is equal to the total value of the profits it's expected to generate in the future, discounted back to the present. We like DCF models because they treat each company as a business rather than a little wiggly line on a stock chart, and they force an analyst to think through all the factors that will affect a company's performance. (For more on DCF models versus more traditional valuation methods such as price/earnings ratio, check out my article "Putting a Price Tag on Hard-to-Value Stocks".)

But any DCF model is only as good as the numbers you put into it, which is why we've tried to make our model as thorough as possible. First, an analyst enters the company's historical data for the past five years into a spreadsheet, including dozens of different data points. These include basic information such as sales, cost of goods sold, inventories, and long-term debt, as well as more esoteric items such as deferred income tax expense and capitalized lease obligations. Most of this historical data doesn't directly affect the fair value (which is based on future cash flows), but it provides a very useful context for projecting future results.

Those projections are the meat of our model, and they're determined by the analyst based on his or her knowledge of the company and its competitive position. If the analyst thinks profit margins will expand, or sales growth will slow dramatically, or the company will increase its capital expenditures, the model can reflect those predictions. Beyond five years, our model assumes that growth and profitability will regress to the market average over a period determined by the analyst, typically zero to 15 years. The end result is a projection of how much free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) the company will generate over the next five to 20 years.

Enter Cost of Capital
We're not done yet. To figure out what these cash flows are worth today, we have to discount them back to the present using the firm's cost of capital. (For a refresher course on what discounting is and why it's necessary, see "The Time Value of Money".) We also use the cost of capital to figure out the firm's "perpetuity value," or its residual value after it's done regressing to the mean. Adding up the present values of all the estimated future free cash flows, plus the perpetuity value, gives our estimate of the company's total value. Dividing this number by shares outstanding gives the fair value per share--the number you see on Morningstar.com (if you're a Premium Member).

But where does the cost of capital come from? That's a crucial question, because a swing of just one or two percentage points can make a significant difference in a company's fair value. That's especially true for companies whose value lies almost completely in the future. For example, I cover Amazon.com AMZN, and I estimate its fair value to be $13 per share, based on a cost of capital of 10%. If I raised Amazon's cost of capital to 11%, its fair value would fall to $10 per share--a difference of almost 25%.

Our analysts ultimately determine each company's cost of capital themselves, but they do so using some guidelines. Riskier companies have a higher cost of capital than staid, boring ones, for the same reasons that risky borrowers have to pay higher interest rates on loans. We internally estimate a minimum cost of capital for each company using a variety of risk factors, but analysts can use a higher number if they know of additional risks that aren't captured by the estimate. Each Morningstar analyst has to be able to defend his or her fair value estimates in detail before a team of senior analysts and editors.

There's more to our model than I've described here, but this should give you an idea of the basics. As you can see, estimating a stock's fair value is as much an art as a science, but we think the system we've come up with is a good one. Even if we end up being wrong about a stock's value, the transparency of our model allows us to pinpoint exactly which of our assumptions went astray--which in turn gives us a better idea of what to look for in the future.
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-28-2004, 04:13 AM   #94
 
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

And of course, if you own no stocks, you don't care
if they go up or down, how they are valued, who values them, yadda yadda yadda.

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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-28-2004, 09:29 AM   #95
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

But look at all the thrills, excitement and entertaining discussions you can find yourself embroiled in!
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif
Old 05-28-2004, 03:00 PM   #96
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif

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JWR1945[/b] has publicly posted the data he looked at to come to these conclusions. You don't have to argue theory with me anymore if you don't enjoy that sort of thing. You can go to the SWR board and argue data with JWR1945 instead. If he is wrong, someone should be able to find a flaw in his research. If he is right, we should be dancing in the streets at what we have discovered as a result of me kicking off this wonderful SWR debate.


If you really want people to check out the data, then give them a tool that would make it easy for them to do so. You could create an Excel spreadsheet that used the same parameters as REHP SWR spreadsheet. Or create a modified version of the FIRECalc. Then people can compare which method would have worked better for them, historically speaking.


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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif
Old 05-28-2004, 03:49 PM   #97
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif

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If you really want people to check out the data, then give them a tool that would make it easy for them to do so.
This post borders on the incredible. I see why you call yourself "WorkWayLess". Could you explain to me why anyone should work way more, to convince someone he doesn't even know to do something that will not be paid for and that will not in any way help the person who is being asked (and not very politely I may add) to do the work involved?

I would say do it yourself, or just continue in whatever course you have decided on. It will work or not, and you will be responsible.

Many things worth knowing require some effort.


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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-28-2004, 04:54 PM   #98
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

Mikey:

On reply to WorkWayLess.

Bravo!
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif
Old 05-28-2004, 06:07 PM   #99
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"What do you mean by specif

Quote:



If you really want people to check out the data, then give them a tool that would make it easy for them to do so. *You could create an Excel spreadsheet that used the same parameters as REHP SWR spreadsheet. *Or create a modified version of the FIRECalc. Then people can compare which method would have worked better for them, historically speaking.

I believe JWR1945 has already created the modified REHP Excel spreadsheet in question. But he hasn't posted it anywhere so that someone can download and review it.

That's probably one of the reasons (among many) that so few people attach any credibility to it.

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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"
Old 05-28-2004, 07:01 PM   #100
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Re: Yahoo "Finance Quiz"

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If you really want people to check out the data, then give them a tool that would make it easy for them to do so. You could create an Excel spreadsheet that used the same parameters as REHP SWR spreadsheet. Or create a modified version of the FIRECalc. Then people can compare which method would have worked better for them, historically speaking.
I have posted detailed instructions for making all of my modifications to the Retire Early Safe Withdrawal Calculator (Version 1.61 from November 7, 2002) at the SWR Research Group board at nofeeboards.com . I have reported everything. I have withheld nothing. I have hidden nothing.

I have attempted unsuccessfully to email my calculator to the Retire Early Home Page website. I think that I need to break each modified calculator into segments of less than 1 Megabyte. I am not sure how to do that and whether that would be enough. I am not experienced in emailing large programs. I have requested assistance, but I have not received any.

Have fun.

John R.
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