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Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 04:33 PM   #1
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Yearly Returns

With the Dow poised for a 16% gain for 2006, the NASDAQ up 10% and S&P 500 up 14% where are all the pundits who were forecasting only modest gains going forward, like 8%? It goes to show that nobody can predict what the market will do, particularly in the short term. The folks who got scared and went to all cash during the year missed out on some nice gains. I know that I can't time the markets successfully and I doubt anyone else can either.

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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 04:35 PM   #2
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Re: Yearly Returns

Those predicting 8% for 2006 are now revising their 2007 predictions upwards to 12-16% because of all the optimism in the market. : Who knows what will really happen?!
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 04:41 PM   #3
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Re: Yearly Returns

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Those predicting 8% for 2006 are now revising their 2007 predictions upwards to 12-16% because of all the optimism in the market. : Who knows what will really happen?!
Now that sounds like the indicator to move to all cash! :
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 04:45 PM   #4
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Re: Yearly Returns

Hmmm - I wonder if 2006 has already "borrowed" from a universally expected to be "great" 2007. Here are some predictions from our favorite "pundits". Bloomberg suspects this may be a great contrarian call.

Stock Strategists Raise Alarms With Call for Rally
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=akSjqhY6q8Zc

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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 05:01 PM   #5
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Re: Yearly Returns

My calculated prediction of a 7% increase in the S&P 500 came true in about September. Either I was ahead of my time, or I failed to double the 7% in January when I made the prediction.

Just goes to show that predictions of future stock market happenings are either right or wrong.

Happy New Year!
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 05:04 PM   #6
 
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Re: Yearly Returns

Quote:
Originally Posted by Arc
Now that sounds like the indicator to move to all cash! :
I know what I'm going to do! - Nothing.
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 05:24 PM   #7
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Re: Yearly Returns

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I know what I'm going to do! - Nothing.
Me either.
Last year, I had a ROR of 9%.
As of yesterday's close, I was up to 16.6%! I will wait to see once my account information updates in the morning as to my ROR this year.
Lets hope 2007 can do the same...

~M

12/30/06
I just checked. My ROR this year was 16.2%.
I guess I'm choosing the right funds.
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 05:26 PM   #8
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Re: Yearly Returns

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I know what I'm going to do! - Nothing.
smart man!
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-29-2006, 08:10 PM   #9
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Re: Yearly Returns

Based on a quick look at today compared with year-end 2005, our "total package" is up a little over 12% for the year. That includes a small a amount of new money and a little growth (we are about 90% fixed income-type investments.) My goal/plan is for a modest (but solid) 7 - 8%. I'm pretty happy. Going forward, the only real problem with a "solid" 7 - 8% is that it's boring to watch! We'll see how it goes.
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-30-2006, 12:32 AM   #10
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Re: Yearly Returns

I had predicted a 12,000 Dow at the beginning of the year... who knew it would go up almost another 500 points...

Who can say Dow 14,000?
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-30-2006, 08:08 AM   #11
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Re: Yearly Returns

Quote:
Originally Posted by mmg2681
Me either.
Last year, I had a ROR of 9%.
As of yesterday's close, I was up to 16.6%! I will wait to see once my account information updates in the morning as to my ROR this year.
Lets hope 2007 can do the same...

~M

12/30/06
I just checked. My ROR this year was 16.2%.
I guess I'm choosing the right funds.
I never cease to be amazed at two things when I look at actual returns in my real accounts:

1. That even with some pretty wild excursions over time (my own twenty year investment history) I do seem to see good reversion to mean (wild drops usually quickly compensated back to the trend line, any market over-reaching usually pulled back lower), so that gives me confidence.

2. That said, even more important is my second observation: "you must be present to win"! This is what keeps me from trying to time the market -- among my portfolio I have an International Fund and a Midcap fund. Just a week ago, the International was maybe 30% up, and the midcap was 15% up. I was doing my year-end spreadsheet yesterday and had to triple check a result -- in less than a week, the ANNUALIZED return on that midcap was down to single digits. Could it be? Dang. BUT, the International ended the year on a upswing, and was up 54%. Diversification is our friend!
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Re: Yearly Returns
Old 12-30-2006, 02:42 PM   #12
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Re: Yearly Returns

Related published material from the Coffehouse:

http://www.coffeehouseinvestor.com/PortPonder.htm
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