Yield curve warning signs

[Marshac]

Just keeping the thread alive

More contraction today- check out that 30-year

Maturity Yield Yester-day Last Week Last Month
3 Month 2.86 2.84 2.79 2.71
6 Month 2.98 2.97 2.95 3.03
2 Year 3.54 3.56 3.56 3.71
3 Year 3.58 3.59 3.60 3.77
5 Year 3.68 3.71 3.73 3.94
10 Year 3.90 3.94 3.98 4.25
30 Year 4.18 4.24 4.32 4.62

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshac Just keeping the thread alive* More contraction today- check out that 30-year Maturity Yield Yester-day Last Week Last Month 3 Month 2.86* 2.84* 2.79* 2.71* 6 Month 2.98* 2.97* 2.95* 3.03* 2 Year 3.54* 3.56* 3.56* 3.71* 3 Year 3.58* 3.59* 3.60* 3.77* 5 Year 3.68* 3.71* 3.73* 3.94* 10 Year 3.90* 3.94* 3.98* 4.25* 30 Year 4.18* 4.24* 4.32* 4.62*

Very interesting! Sure hope I keep getting my 7%

JG

[OldAgePensioner]

JG, if you don't mind saying, what's giving you 7%?

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldAgePensioner JG, if you don't mind saying, what's giving you 7%?

Junk!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Not very good junk either.

I just like saying "valuey"

[saluki9]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshac For a normal 25 year old that wants an auto-pilot portfolio, perhaps... I'm a little bit more active in moving my money around. Two years ago I was 100% equity, 30% of that in the Russell 2000, and an another 30% international fund... I did pretty well.... now I feel as though the prudent move is to batten down the hatches a bit. We will see When i'm convinced the worst has past, I will be all in again, I assure you

And like most investors, by the time you think it's good to "jump in again" you probably will be wrong.

It always amazes me working with institutional clients how much brain power they put into calling future market movements and how wrong they are. Then, when you have individuals trying to do the same I find it comical.


I'm not picking on you in particular, just the whole idea.

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by saluki9 And like most investors, by the time you think it's good to* "jump in again" you probably will be wrong. It always amazes me working with institutional clients how much brain power they put into calling future market movements and how wrong they are.* Then, when you have individuals trying to do the same I find it comical. I'm not picking on you in particular, just the whole idea.

Yeah, it looks dopey to me also.

JG

[BigMoneyJim]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldAgePensioner JG, if you don't mind saying, what's giving you 7%?

There were some threads discussing his GM (or GMAC?) bonds not too long ago...March or April I think. You can use the board's search feature to find them. I think they've been downgraded once or twice since then.

[retire@40]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMoneyJim There were some threads discussing his GM (or GMAC?) bonds not too long ago...March or April I think. You can use the board's search feature to find them. I think they've been downgraded once or twice since then.

And, if I'm not mistaken, these same bonds are now paying 8%.

[riskadverse]

Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday he does not have a good explanation for why long-term interest rates have been falling at a time when he and his Fed colleagues have been raising short-term rates.
Greenspan called the pronounced decline in long-term interest rates over the past year at the same time the Fed was boosting short-term rates "clearly without recent precedent."

And he went on to say "I'm reasonably certain we would not automatically assume that it would mean what it meant in the past"

He artfully dodged saying the "R" word.
It sounds to me like it's going to be different this time!
Where have I heard that before?

[BristolBane]

Looks like mortgage rates are scraping the bottom again. 30yr fixed with 0 points can be had at 5.0%. Time to re-finance if you missed it last time!

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by riskaverse Chairman* * *Alan Greenspan said Monday he does not have a good explanation for why long-term interest rates have been falling at a time when he and his Fed colleagues have been raising short-term rates. Greenspan called the pronounced decline in long-term interest rates over the past year at the same time the Fed was boosting short-term rates "clearly without recent precedent." And he went on to say "I'm reasonably certain we would not automatically assume that it would mean what it meant in the past" He artfully dodged saying the "R" word. It sounds to me like it's going to be different this time! Where have I heard that before?

He's an old man and senility may be setting in, or quite possibly
he is sliding into using Rummyistic thinking unknowingly ("Known knowns,
known unknowns" etc ) Or maybe "You can't go into the unknown without knowin" ? My guess is that he is just guessin' like everyone else.

JG

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by BristolBane Looks like mortgage rates are scraping the bottom again.* 30yr fixed with 0 points can be had at 5.0%.* Time to re-finance if you missed it last time!

Tempting for sure. Psychologically, I can't do it, even if the numbers tell me to go for it. With my low income, once DW quits working I expect
we will shift into reverse mortgage-wise.

JG

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Greenspan knows what he's saying. He also knows if he stonewalls a little longer until the next fed chairman comes along that he can stuff the whole bag of crap down the front of that guys shirt, spin him around a couple of times and be gone before anyone knows what happened.

Havent listened to a word the man says since he told people to go out and get variable rate mortgages last year knowing he was going to jack up the rates through the roof and screw anyone who did as he suggested.