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Old 10-09-2008, 06:18 PM   #21
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Was thinking of transferring my bond fun (G fund in the TSP) into the S&P fund (C fund). Sort of buying LOW. It was 15% or so of entire portfolio, now just a tad over 22%.
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Old 10-09-2008, 06:22 PM   #22
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I bought some Vanguard Total Stock Market today at 2 minutes before closing. Wow, that was some discount! Does anyone happen to know when the sale is supposed to be over?
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Old 10-09-2008, 06:24 PM   #23
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I bought some Vanguard Total Stock Market today at 2 minutes before closing. Wow, that was some discount! Does anyone happen to know when the sale is supposed to be over?
I don't thinik you need to rush in. This sale may be here a while and they may need to drop prices further to bring in the buyers.
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Old 10-09-2008, 06:29 PM   #24
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Just did a quick check and rate of return since ER December 2002 is still positive (5.6%/year) So I guess ER is still on but losses in the big 6 figures certainly got me crosseyed
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Old 10-09-2008, 06:49 PM   #25
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My portfolio is also down by six figures plus.
I think I've got you beat by a digit. Probably because no one here would approve of my AA.

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I know that this too will pass
Faith is a wonderful thing, can I keep it?
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Old 10-09-2008, 07:04 PM   #26
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What? No comments? Is it just too depressing?

Just talking amongst myself here....

Audrey

I was waiting for CNBC to put out the banner with balloons
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Old 10-09-2008, 07:35 PM   #27
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The painful thing is watching that much money just evaporate . I could have bought an island condo somewhere with a hot pool boy !
But would he sneak in little fishies to keep you happy?

Ha
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Old 10-09-2008, 07:50 PM   #28
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But would he sneak in little fishies to keep you happy?

Ha

You have a good point !
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Old 10-09-2008, 08:32 PM   #29
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I bought some Vanguard Total Stock Market today at 2 minutes before closing. Wow, that was some discount! Does anyone happen to know when the sale is supposed to be over?
i think SP500 will hit around 500 next year or 2010-2012 time frame. i think the current wave of selling is over due to lehman's CDS auction tomorrow and a rally to 1200 or so. then another fall.
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Old 10-09-2008, 10:01 PM   #30
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i think SP500 will hit around 500 next year or 2010-2012 time frame. i think the current wave of selling is over due to lehman's CDS auction tomorrow and a rally to 1200 or so. then another fall.
You're doing elliot wave?
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Old 10-10-2008, 08:25 AM   #31
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i had the RSS feed for the blog for a while but never read it until last week. and skimmed through the free stuff on the website including the 75 page e-book they have. very interesting. i heard about it years ago but never paid much attention to it because there was very little evidence if the multi-decade predictions are any good. now i think they are since we have 1929-1932,2007 - whenever US crisis, the Japaneese crash, The Asian Financial Crisis and the Nordic crisis as evidence and they all followed the same pattern over many decades building up to the crisis with different strategies to resolve it.

and Bob Prechter did have a nice tidbit of free information last week. he said we are now in wave 3 and the halfway point was the passage of the bailout so we should see a rally soon which will be wave 4. i'm guessing we'll rally to around 1200 and then wave 5 will start. from a quick reading of the free stuff it looks like the waves tend to stick to the fibonacci numbers so if you multiply the loss of wave 3 by 1.618 you get a wave 5 target for the SP of 500 plus or minus because wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. For the Dow i think it comes out to around 5000 or 4500 being the bottom if we retrace 61.8% from the peak. worst case is the peak in 1937.

if you go to books.google.com and search for The Elliott Wave Principle they have an excerpt of the original that was published in 1978. haven't read it all, but R.N. Elliott wrote about 13 patterns he found in the 1930's and they are still seen today.

i don't know what's going to happen in the US but the Nikkei 225 looks interesting as a long term buy. Looks like it's in the final wave 5 selling stage and will bottom out around 5000 and then start another bull market. also have to check out other world indexes to see where they are. but my guess is that asia and africa will be the ones to look at for the next decade or two and the yen carry trade will turn into the dollar carry trade.

i'd say the best case for recovery is Asia after 1997. worst case is listening to the free market people and we'll get a 90% loss in all the indexes and a depression. middle case is Japan where we get a final 90% loss over many decades but a decent standard of living in the interim.
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