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Old 05-28-2014, 01:18 PM   #21
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Excuse me for a minute, I feel a decumulation coming on...
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Old 05-28-2014, 01:35 PM   #22
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Don't scare me like that. I thought the market just crashed while I was BS'ing on this forum.
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Old 05-28-2014, 01:41 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
I've looked it up, and in my case at least, it goes up pretty quick, delaying taking SS from 62 to 70. Here's a few data points, from the last time I ran the numbers...

If I retire now, at age 44, and take SS at 62, I'd get about $12,400 per year.
If I work until 62, and start taking it then, it goes up to about $17,900 per year. So, another 18 years of my life wasted on work, just to get another $5400 per year. From there it starts going up pretty fast though.
If I work until 65, it's up to $22,400
At age 67, $26100.
And finally, at age 70, $32600

Now, I just used the quick calculator on the SSA website, so it might not be *too* accurate. And I don't know how to input, say, dropping out of the workforce at 44 but delaying taking it until 70. The results above assume I work until 62, 65, 67, or 70. I've heard, though, that once you're past 62, the biggest jump comes from delaying taking benefits, and not working an extra year. So if you retire at 62 and take benefits at 70, the amount might be about the same as working until 70 and then taking them.

Anyway, I always budgeted for about $40,000 per year in retirement to live off of, so SS is a pretty big chunk of that. I have a feeling the closer I get, though, I'm going to change that target. The last time I ran the FireCalc numbers, in January I think, it gave me a 96.6% chance of success if I retire next year, with a $40K per year budget. Almost seems too good to be true!
Ah, another point for the youngster ERs to ponder is what SS they will get if they stop working so early. Not only that they have to wait a long time, but when they get there they may not get much.

I just stopped work recently so I think the cut will not be severe. Still, as I live fine on 3.5%WR and do not think of increasing it when SS is accounted for, I am in no hurry to figure that out. I will wait until the next market downturn.
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Old 05-28-2014, 01:48 PM   #24
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When it comes to "believing in success," here's an amazing example: 20 years old, shooting for ER in the next couple years
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Old 05-28-2014, 01:48 PM   #25
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I keep about 3-4% in cash at all times. It's a drag on results when the market is going up, but nice to have when the market dives. I still smile on some of the stocks I bought in March 2009 that are now 4-5X more than my purchase price. Of course, I hope not to see a "2008" again for awhile. :-)
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Old 05-28-2014, 01:54 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Ah, another point for the youngster ERs to ponder is what SS they will get if they stop working so early. Not only that they have to wait a long time, but when they get there they may not get much.

I just stopped work recently so I think the cut will not be severe. Still, as I live fine on 3.5%WR and do not think of increasing it when SS is accounted for, I am in no hurry to figure that out. I will wait until the next market downturn.
I ran two sets of numbers with FireCalc, one assuming full SS benefits and one assuming no benefit at all (and no pension either, although my pension is only $349.21/mo, non-COLA'ed, and doesn't kick in until age 65/2035). Interestingly, taking SS/Pension benfits away only delays the various scenarios by about 2-3 years. For instance, with SS/Pension, FireCalc gives me a 96.6% chance of success if I retire in 2015. But with no SS/Pension, I get a 94.2% chance if I wait until 2017, and a 98.8% chance if I wait until 2018.

Even if I wanted to live off of $100K per year, I'd have to wait until 2029, and age 59, if I wanted a 96.6% chance of success, with SS/Pension. Without, I only have to hold out to age 61, which gives me a 95.3% chance. I like to see at least a 95% chance of success, but that 94.2% above, might be close enough!
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Old 05-29-2014, 10:15 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
Now, I just used the quick calculator on the SSA website, so it might not be *too* accurate. And I don't know how to input, say, dropping out of the workforce at 44 but delaying taking it until 70.
It's pretty easy - but counterintuitive, to get the results you want.

Go to the estimator - run the normal estimate (which assumes you work until you start collecting.

Click on the "Add a New Estimate" button.

Put in the age you want to start collecting SS for the retire age. (In other words spoof the real retirement age to be the age SS kicks in)
Put in "0" for the income you'll make between now and then. (Again - completion of the spoof because you're actually retired now.)

For me, at age 52, collecting at 62 only provides a $200/month difference between retiring now and working till 62. Not worth working just for SS, IMO.
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Old 05-29-2014, 10:22 AM   #28
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For me, at age 52, collecting at 62 only provides a $200/month difference between retiring now and working till 62. Not worth working just for SS, IMO.
Thanks. Saves me the trouble to do the exercise for myself. And I stopped working at 55.
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Old 05-29-2014, 12:15 PM   #29
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Thanks, Rodi, but dumb question here...where is the "Add a New Estimate" button? I can't find it. Unless I'm using the wrong calculator? I looked at the quick calculator, and then the calculator where you enter all your income from past years.
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Old 05-29-2014, 12:47 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andre1969 View Post
Thanks, Rodi, but dumb question here...where is the "Add a New Estimate" button? I can't find it. Unless I'm using the wrong calculator? I looked at the quick calculator, and then the calculator where you enter all your income from past years.
Retirement Estimator
Click on the estimate your retirement benefits button.
Enter all your personal data - and it should give you the initial estimate.
On that page - you can then click the "Add New Estimate" button.
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Old 05-29-2014, 01:14 PM   #31
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Cool, thanks Rodi! I was able to get it to work. And here's the estimates it gave me...
If I keep working I'll get:
$1506/mo if I work til 62 and then start collecting
$2175/mo if I work til 67
$2708/mo if I work til 70.

However, if I quit now, at the age of 44, I'll get:
$1047/mo if I start collecting at 62
$1496/mo at 67
$1855/mo at 70

My current plan, subject to change, is to work until 50 and then collect at 62. That gives me about $1271/mo.

Needless to say, I'm not going to keep w*rking just for the increased SS benefits!
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Old 05-29-2014, 01:59 PM   #32
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Bear markets are wonderful for accumulators. Of course one needs to have guts to buy, buy, buy...

On the other hand, full retirees are in the decumulation phase, and the only thing they can do is to rebalance. There's no new cash to buy anything. It's scarier!

So, at some point, if you are successful in reaching that ER stage, you will have a chance to experience those gut-wrenching market movements. Heh heh heh...
I'm hoping for another bear sometime between now and 2019. For one, it'll make me more confident that 2020 and the immediate years beyond will be more bullish. For another, because I'm still accumulating and want the value. And finally because I'd rather know I have enough after surviving another big bear beatdown than wondering if I have enough after 10 bullish years with a bear sure to come!
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